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OPINION NOVEMBER 18, 2022 | The Indian Eye 10

IAEA Board of Governors reiterated Employment. operated until the 2050s. ics Autonomous Systems (AURAS)
China’s concerns over the transfer of It is widely speculated that Through the analysis of the de- and the AUKUS Quantum Arrange-
HEU involved in AUKUS. He called based on NPST’s recommendations, velopments that have unfolded in the ment (AQuA) have already been es-
on the AUKUS nations to immedi- Australia would opt between the one year since the announcement of tablished under the working groups
ately and comprehensively report Virginia Class or Astute class, which AUKUS, the following inferences can of Undersea Capabilities and Quan-
all relevant information about HEU are the latest SSN classes of the be drawn: tum technologies, respectively. Apart
transfer to IAEA. US and UK navies respectively. As AUKUS reflects the primacy of from this, the doubling of the working
At the Tenth NPT Review Con- brought out before, the announce- the US–Australia Strategic Depth: groups under the AUKUS’s advanced
ference held on 10 August 2022, Chi- ment and provisions have already There have been numerous criticisms capability within one year is an indi-
nese Ambassador for Disarmament been made for the Australian sub- from both within and outside Austra- cator that the scope of AUKUS is be-
Affairs, Li Song, described AUKUS mariners to receive training aboard lia that by joining AUKUS, Australia yond just submarines.
as a textbook example of nuclear both these SSN classes. has compromised its strategic auton- Year One of AUKUS has been
proliferation. He also stated that However, this complex range omy. On the contrary, as put forth by eventful and this has indicated that
AUKUS grossly undermines the of developments only illustrates the Australian Member of Parliament, AUKUS has been successful in gain-
South Pacific and Southeast Asia nu- tip of the iceberg for AUKUS’s core Andrew Hastie, Australia’s conformi- ing momentum. Year Two of AUKUS
clear weapon zones. China proactive- objective which is bound to span for ty to the US strategic perspective has is also bound to be extremely import-
ly sought to get a resolution passed nearly 30 years. Post this, the estimat- been the benchmark of their bilateral ant as the 18-month consultation peri-
against AUKUS at the IAEA Gen- ed completion and delivery of the relations. od will end in March 2023 and an an-
eral Conference held in the last week first SSN is likely to take place during This has been evident from Aus- nouncement on the future course of
of September 2022. But China with- 2038–2040. The earliest forecast for tralia’s allegiance to the US through- action would be made. Also, the Aus-
drew this resolution foreseeing that it the completion of all eight SSNs is out its engagements during the Cold tralian Government has announced
would not garner majority support in not until 2050, while the farthest fore- War, and active participation in the a new “Defense Strategic Review”,
the IAEA. India’s role in persuading cast suggests it may even extend up prolonged US-led military operations which will be published in 2023. This
several countries to oppose this reso- to 2059. Given this time-frame, sev- in Afghanistan and Iraq. The US and document would provide crucial in-
lution has been widely highlighted in eral observers and stakeholders have Australian strategic conformity are a sights into how AUKUS would fig-
both the Indian and international me- flagged some of the obvious challeng- common feature across all Indo-Pa- ure in the Australian military’s future
dia. Despite this, it can be expected es that AUKUS is bound to face in cific geostrategic architectures like force structure. Despite these series
that China’s proactive and steadfast the long run. the QUAD, Five Eyes and ANZUS. of developments, however, AUKUS’s
opposition to AUKUS is bound to Several articles and opinion piec- Therefore, AUKUS can be viewed as potential to tangibly impact the In-
continue in the years to come. es have been published marking one yet another indicator of the primacy do-Pacific geopolitical discourse can
The Australian Government is year of AUKUS. Most of these arti- of the US–Australia Strategic Depth perhaps only be seen in the long term.
expected to announce the plan of ac- cles have flagged certain key challeng- across the Indo-Pacific. Dr R. Vignesh is Research Analyst
tion for the construction of the eight es that lie ahead for AUKUS. AUKUS signals the UK’s return at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for
SSNs in the latter half of 2023, based Submarine Gap: The Australian to the East of Suez: On 9 December Defense Studies and Analyses (MP-ID-
on the recommendation of the Nu- Defense White Paper titled “De- 2016, Boris Johnson, who was then SA), New Delhi.
clear-Powered Submarine Taskforce fending Australia in the Asia Pacific the Foreign Secretary of the UK, de-
(NPST), which is headed by Vice Ad- Century: Force 2030” was published livered a speech on the changing na- Cmde Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd) is
miral Jonathan Mead of the RAN. in 2009. In this document, Australia ture of his country’s foreign policy at Research Fellow at the Manohar Par-
The NPST is carrying out rigorous acknowledged the RAN’s depleting the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain. In rikar Institute for Defense Studies and
scrutiny of the various aspects of the submarine capability and the need his address, he denounced the UK’s Analyses, New Delhi
SSN’s construction. for swiftly replacing the six existing withdrawal from the ‘East of Suez’ in Views expressed are of the author and
This includes the assessment of Collin Class submarines in its fleet. 1968 as a historic mistake. He brought
do not necessarily reflect the views of
the design of the hull, the safety of the The document also had ambitiously out that the UK is committed to re- the Manohar Parrrikar IDSA or of the
nuclear reactors and the establish- laid out that RAN seeks to acquire 12 versing that policy despite not being Government of India.
ment of the prerequisite infrastruc- advanced conventional attack subma- the greatest military power. AUKUS
ture. The NPST is a whole-of-govern- rines (SSK) through the future sub- illustrates the UK’s efforts to re-es- This article first appeared in the
ment effort spanning 12 departments marines programme. The White Pa- tablish its strategic footprint in a re- Comments section of the website (www.
across the Australian Government per also stated that these submarines gion where it had historic influence. idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
ranging from the Prime Minister’s Of- would be acquired within the next 30 AUKUS is not just about Subma- for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
fice to the Department of Skills and years and that these boats would be rines: The AUKUS Undersea Robot- Delhi on November 2, 2022

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