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BUSINESS EYE SEPTEMBER 08, 2023 | The Indian Eye 34

At 7.8%, India leads the pack of growing

economies as Europe lags behind

Chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran says the Indian economy is likely to grow

at 6.5% in the current fiscal despite deficient monsoon rainfall

OUR BUREAU
Mumbai/New Delhi

ndia saw a Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
growth rate of 7.8 per cent in the first quarter
I(April-June) of 2023-24. Real GDP or GDP
at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 2023-24 is es-
timated to attain a level of Rs 40.37 lakh crore, as
against Rs 37.44 lakh crore in Q1 2022-23, showing
a growth of 7.8 per cent as compared to 13.1 per
cent in Q1 2022-23, Ministry of Statistics and Pro-
gramme Implementation said on Thursday.
With a GDP growth of 7.8 per cent, India con-
tinues to be the fastest-growing major economy.
China’s economy grew by 6.3 per cent year-on-year
in the second quarter of 2023.
According to data released by the Ministry, the
agriculture sector recorded a 3.5 per cent growth,
which is up from 2.4 per cent in the same quarter
of last fiscal. However, the growth in the manufac-
turing sector decelerated to 4.7 per cent in the first
quarter of the current fiscal compared to 6.1 per
cent in the year-ago period.
Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in
Q1 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 70.67 lakh crore, as
against Rs 65.42 lakh crore in Q1 2022-23, showing
a growth of 8 per cent as compared to 27.7 per cent
in Q1 2022-23, the Ministry added.
The quarterly estimates of GDP are indi-
cator-based and are compiled using the bench-
mark-indicator method, i.e., quarterly estimates
available for the previous year referred to as the
benchmark year are extrapolated using the relevant
indicators reflecting the performance of sectors.
The data sourced from various ministries, de-
partments, and private agencies serve as valuable
inputs in the compilation of the estimates. tortions. Therefore, our projections still are very However, the 2024 global growth forecast is
The quarterly GDP estimates for July-Sep- comfortably placed at 6.5 per cent for the current kept unchanged at 2.4 per cent.
tember, 2023 (Q2 2023-24) will be released on No- financial year,” Nageswaran said. Turning the focus to India, it said the country’s
vember 30. Risk is evenly distributed to around 6.5% economy is continuing to show rapid expansion,
Meanwhile, chief economic advisor V Anan- growth projection for FY2023-24, he said while with GDP growth expected to remain robust in the
tha Nageswaran said on Thursday that the Indian briefing media following the release of first quarter near term, at a pace of 5.9 per cent in the financial
economy is likely to grow at 6.5% in the current GDP numbers, he said. “Rising crude prices may year 2023 and 6.1 per cent in the next.
fiscal despite deficient monsoon rainfall. “There warrant attention and prolonged geopolitical un- “However, a renewed upturn in inflation pres-
is no real cause for concern that inflation would certainty and likely tighter financial conditions can sures in mid-2023 due to rapidly rising food prices
spike out of control as both the government and pose risk to growth,” The chief economic advisor has pushed CPI inflation back above the upper
the Reserve Bank are taking adequate steps to added. end of the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target
maintain supply and keep prices under check, re- With regard to fiscal deficit, Nageswaran said range,” Rajiv Biswas, APAC Chief Economist at
ported PTI quoting the chief economic advisor. there is no threat to 5.9% fiscal deficit announced S&P Global Market Intelligence said.
Nageswaran said the food inflation is likely to in the Budget. “Although inflationary pressures have moder-
subside with the arrival of fresh stock and govern- Recently, S&P Global Market Intelligence ated since the beginning of 2023 in a number of
ment measures. However, he said the impact of has revised the global real GDP growth forecast Southeast Asian countries, the downside risk of a
deficient rains in August is to be watched. for 2023 to 2.5 per cent, primarily owing to upward severe El Nino weather event remains a key un-
“There is momentum in economic activity in revisions in the US forecast. Earlier, it had predict- certainty for the near-term economic outlook,”
general and it is not driven by price-related dis- ed global growth at 2.4 per cent. Biswas added.

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