Page 11 - The Indian EYE 111023

OPINION NOVEMBER 10, 2023 | The Indian Eye 11

Anomalies (SSTAs) and an ocean-at- bad monsoon therefore invariably is
mosphere coupled interaction in the disastrous for India’s agriculture and
Pacific is well recognised. ENSO has leads to inflation. Monsoon forecast-
the potential to influence global tem- ing thus becomes a crucial input for
perature and precipitations by chang- the agriculture sector, farmers and
ing global atmospheric circulation. water management agencies. How-
It consists of warming and cooling ever, the vagaries of monsoon and
phases in which the surface waters its unpredictability makes monsoon
across the large region or band of forecasting a daunting task despite
the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes unprecedented progress made in the
warmer or cooler by around 1°C to field of observational techniques and
3°C than the normal. The ENSO cy- forecasting models.
cle consists of extreme phases, i.e., El The Indian Ocean Region is a
Nino phase during which above-aver- vast expanse. The maritime trade
age Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) route and Sea Lines of Communica-
are observed in the central and east- tions (SLOCs) in the IOR, makes it
ern tropical Pacific Ocean, La Nina a conduit of commerce connecting
phase in which below-average (SSTs) Middle East to Southeast and East
are observed in the same region and Asia. The military presence of various
the third phase called ENSO-neutral Figure 2: Source: “Monsoon Information”, India Meteorological Department, countries near the choke points and
has the neutral conditions. Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India maritime trade routes to protect the
During the negative IOD phase, trade has grown over the years, mak-
cooler than normal SSTs off the coast pre-monsoon or the summer season ated with below-average rainfall. The ing the region a key economic and
of Africa and warmer than normal acts as a driving force for the whole 2023 therefore was an interesting strategic theatre. The region is as such
SSTs off Indonesia are observed. process by creating the necessary year which witnessed interplay be- mired with the challenges related to
The normal circulation therefore pressure difference. tween the El-Nino and IOD. While Non-traditional Security issues such as
gets a boost with westerly winds get- In India, monsoon means transi- El-Nino influence was for a sup- Piracy, Illegal, Unreported, and Un-
ting more consistent and convection tion to rainy season from the hot and pressed rainfall, the IOD during the regulated (IUU) fishing, drug smug-
over Indonesia becoming stronger. dry summer months. The normal latter phase was working other way gling, human trafficking, etc., which
This brings greater precipitation to date of monsoon onset over Kerala is round doing some offsetting and thus impacts its security environment.
the eastern IO and drought-like con- 1 June. The onset of this much await- compensating for the deficiencies in The geo-political, geo-econom-
ditions for the Horn of Africa. The ed annual weather event is forecast- the rainfall. ic and geo-strategic contestation is
extreme positive IOD events such in ed based on daily rainfall over 14 sta- Figure 3 represents the rainfall therefore a present-day reality in
2019, which was one of the strongest tions in Kerala and the neighbouring anomaly composite during South- the IOR. Fragility in the IOR envi-
warm Dipole years in last six decades, areas, wind field and the Outgoing west monsoon season for the past ronment is a consequence of these
apart from bringing higher-than-aver- Longwave Radiation (OLR)15 and El-Nino events (left) and the rainfall complex issues and considerable
age rainfall and floods in eastern Af- hence does not have a fixed date. At anomaly composite during South- presence of military presence. The
rica and drought in South-East Asia, times the onset can be early, delayed west monsoon season for the past collaboration and cooperation in cli-
also made substantial contribution in or on time. Positive IOD events (right). mate change studies under the um-
setting the stage for the devastating Figure 2 depicts the inter-an- The Indian economy is con- brella of SAGAR, BIMSTEC and
bush fires in the Australia. A monthly nual variability of Southwest Mon- sidered as a gamble of the Indian IORA, is arguably the most non-con-
Dipole Mode Index (DMI) since Jan- soon season rainfall since the year summer monsoon more commonly tentious theme which has the poten-
uary 1979 till 2019 is shown in Figure 1. 1901 under the influence of El-Ni- known as Southwest monsoon. The tial to bring all the vulnerable na-
The Southwest monsoon, which tions together for a common cause.
is spread over four months from June no Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Long Period Average (LPA) of the This would also help in building an
monsoon rainfall is 86.86 cm which
a large-scale climate driver, having
to September, is one of the most com- three phases i.e., El-Nino, La-Nina accounts for nearly 70 per cent of atmosphere of trust and ease out the
plex weather systems in the world. In and the Neutral. India’s annual rainfall. Being an existing geo-strategic contestation in
the most simplistic terms, Southwest Generally, a positive IOD results agrarian society, almost half of In- the region. The story of economic
monsoon is a phenomenon where in an above-average rainfall over In- dia’s population either directly or growth in the IOR can only be writ-
the South-easterly winds originating dia whereas a negative IOD is associ- indirectly depends on agriculture. A ten on the canvas of peace and trust.
from Mascarene High in the south- The atmospheric and oceanic studies
ern hemisphere while crossing the can be this vast common canvas.
Equator, gets deflected due to the
Coriolis force, the trusted lieutenant Comdt Manoranjan Srivastava (retd)
of the monsoon at the equator and is Research Fellow at the Manohar
hence become South-westerly. Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies
These winds while travelling and Analyses, New Delhi
over the vast sea area of the Indian Views expressed are of the author and
Ocean for more than 4,500 km from do not necessarily reflect the views of
its source pick up speed and moisture the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
and on hitting the Western Ghats of Government of India.
India result in heavy rainfall. It ad-
vances northwards from southern The full version of this article
India and over a period of nearly first appeared in the Comments section
one and half month covers the entire of the website (www.idsa.in) of
country. The Heat Low formed over Figure 3: Source: “Monsoon Information”, India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense
Northwest India and adjoining areas Sciences, Government of India Studies and Analyses, New Delhi on
due to intense heating during the November 1, 2023

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