Page 44 - The Indian EYE 102221

Business EYE OCTOBER 22, 2021 | The Indian Eye 44

ray of hope for indian economy

as iMF and niti aayog give thumbs up

“I expect Indian economy to grow 10.5 per cent or higher in FY22,” says official

Our Bureau consumer and capital goods
output, cement production,
Washington, DC/New Delhi steel consumption, and freight

recent report of the traffic have seen strong sequen-
International Mone- tial recoveries though they con-
A tary Fund (IMF) has tinue to remain below their
brought a new ray of hope to pre-COVID-19 levels.”
India’s economy. It has project- Experts agree that exports
ed real gross domestic product appear to be a bright spot,
(GDP) growth rate for India at having grown by 56.9 percent
9.5% and 8.5% in 2021-22 and YoY during H1 FY22 and 23.8
2022-23 respectively. If it turns percent over H1 FY20 lev-
out to be true, we will regis- els. However, this impressive
ter the highest rate of growth nominal export growth must
among the world’s major econ- be interpreted with caution
omies. Our economy is expect- as it has a very strong under-
ed to stay the fastest-growing lying price element to it. As
till 2026. per the World Bank, global
The IMF noted that the as the pandemic eases, people are returning to markets amid the festive energy and non-energy prices
strength of the recovery pro- seasons, giving a boost to the economy (aNi) have averaged 104.4 percent
jected varies significantly across and 38.8 percent higher during
countries, depending on access he said. Replying to a question, Ku- April-September as compared
to medical interventions, ef- “I expect Indian economy mar said reasons for the slump to year ago levels (this is why
fectiveness of policy support, to grow 10.5 per cent or higher in two-wheeler sales might be India’s imports have also grown
exposure to cross-country spill- in FY22,” he noted. due to the transition from inter- quite rapidly, rising 82.3 per-
overs and structural character- nal combustion engine scooters cent YoY during H1 FY22).
istics entering the covid crisis. the country’s economy and bikes to electric bikes and Besides, strong export de-
This means that India needs to scooters. mand has also been supported
keep up its vaccination drive grew by a record 20.1 Noting that exports create by the materialization of pent-
and ensure that it reaches a per cent in the april-june jobs, he said, “we need to dou- up demand across major econ-
critical mass sooner than later. ble our share of global trade... omies aided by supportive fis-
Economic recovery is directly quarter, helped by a very and for that we might need bet- cal policies — these effects are

related to a country’s response weak base of last year ter market access”. likely to fade going forward.
to the pandemic. According to experts, the We will still need a lot more ev-
The sign has been con- and a sharp rebound in affirmations on growth are idence to believe that the pan-
firmed by top government of- the manufacturing and discernible from some high demic has led to a rise in glob-
ficials. Indian economy is ex- frequency indicators as well: al import elasticity of demand
pected to grow 10.5 per cent or services sectors in spite Mobility around retail and rec- (for India’s exports), and that
more in the current fiscal, Niti of the devastating second reation, and workplaces has exports could support domestic
Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Ku- recovered quickly after the growth in a meaningful manner
mar said on Thursday. Speak- covid wave. COVID-19 second wave sub- in the medium term.
ing at a virtual conference of sided, and is only a tad lower According to observers, an
PAFI India, he also said that The Reserve Bank of India than pre-COVID-19 levels. interesting point that the IMF
modernization of the retail sec- (RBI) has lowered the growth “GST collections have also has raised is the need to focus
tor is very much on the cards. projection for the current fi- rebounded strongly, reflect- on scientific research for pro-
“India Purchasing Manag- nancial year to 9.5 per cent ing the uptick in consumption ductivity growth. Many coun-
ers’ Index (PMI) for both man- from 10.5 per cent estimated demand, and are 12.5 percent tries ignore scientific research
ufacturing and services have earlier while the IMF has pro- higher during H1 FY22 vis-à- on specific ways to achieve this.
shown a very smart uptick last jected a growth of 9.5 per cent vis pre-COVID-19 (H1 FY20) This is especially so in develop-
month. This (Indian economy) in 2021 and 8.5 per cent in the levels,” said an official. “Other ing countries that need such in-
will strengthen even further,” next year. indicators such as auto sales, puts all the more.

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