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OPINION                                                               AUGUST 26, 2022  |     The Indian Eye 11



        lamic State in Khorasan Province’s                                                                    allowing their soil to be used as a
        (ISKP)  leader  Shahab  al-Muhajir                                                                    launch pad to undermine the latter’s
        and Iran for the killing. With the kill-                                                              security. While India is engaging
        ing of al-Zawahiri, as a power vacu-                                                                  with the Taliban, recent develop-
        um develops, rival organizations like                                                                 ments  indicate  that  re-adjustments
        the  ISKP  could gain  momentum.                                                                      would have to be made to the threat
        The ISIS affiliate would find this an                                                                 assessment matrix.
        opportune moment to highlight col-                                                                        Questions would now, more so
        lusion between the Taliban and the                                                                    than before, have to be asked about
        US in betraying the Islamist cause by                                                                 the kind of immunity accorded to
        selling out al-Zawahiri to the Amer-                                                                  terrorists within Afghanistan, allow-
        icans and securing the US$ 25 mil-                                                                    ing them freedom to spew propagan-
        lion bounty placed on his head by                                                                     da and devise plans to undermine
        the  FBI.  Given  that  Afghanistan  is                                                               India’s national security apparatus.
        not able to access its international                                                                  Since the fall of Kabul, the Taliban
        monetary assets worth US$ 9 billion,                                                                  have stood steadfast with non-state
        despite deteriorating economic and                                                                    actors sponsored by Pakistan—
        humanitarian crisis, could be flagged                                                                 Jaish-e-Mohammed    (JeM)   and
        by ISKP as a reason why the Taliban                                                                   Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)—who have
        leadership has turned its back on the                                                                 a  violent,  anti-India  and  anti-West
        global jihadist crusade.                            The house where Zawahiri was hit and killed       worldview. Moreover, JeM and
                                                                                                              LeT have maintained their training
        The Taliban’s growing align-                                                                          camps in Afghanistan.
                                                                                                                  The strike against al-Zawahiri
        ment with China in the hopes                                                                          is being hailed as a vindication of

        of securing the latter’s contin-                                                                      the US’s over-the-horizon strate-
                                                                                                              gy in eradicating terrorism without
        ued investment in Afghanistan’s                                                                       placing boots on the ground. In the
        economy has already resulted                                                                          long-term, however, its success will
                                                                                                              be measured in terms of how impen-
        in domino effects. Reports of                                                                         etrable it can make the US and its

        Uyghur militants joining hands                                                                        allies to terrorist threats. Al-Qaeda’s
                                                                                                              potential to expand and re-enforce
        with the ISIS affiliate, support                                                                      itself and affiliates cannot be written
        the claim. A suicide bomber,                                                                          off anytime soon.
                                                                                                                  While he lacked his predecessor
        with a Uyghur lineage, attacked                                                                       Bin Laden’s charisma and popular-

        the Gozar-e-Sayed Abad mosque                                                                         ity, Zawahiri had proven adept at
                                                                                                              keeping the hollowed ties al-Qaeda
        (Kunduz) in October 2021.                                                                             shared with affiliates like al-Shabab
                                             The Taliban have expressed ignorance about the Al-Qaeda leader's presence in Kabul  and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Pen-
            Furthermore,  groups  like  the                                                                   insula. Al-Shabab, in particular, has
        East  Turkestan  Islamic  Movement    India has refrained from mak-  ‘working towards advocating, abet-  emerged as the deadliest al-Qaeda
        (ETIM), earlier in cahoots with the   ing any announcements regarding   ting, inciting, assisting, harboring,   affiliate  worldwide,  constantly  un-
        Taliban, might also increasingly find   the drone strike. It would not be   recruiting and collecting funds for   dermining a fragile Somali govern-
        themselves at odds with its former   far-fetched to assume that its policy-  organizing and committing unlawful   ment. Finally, policymakers and in-
        ally. Fissures had arisen between the   makers and intelligence community   & terrorist activities’.  telligence agencies must exploit the
        ETIM and the Taliban over the past   will have some breather while re-as-  Furthermore,  al-Zawahiri  used   power struggles al-Qaeda’s emerg-
        year as the latter appeared to par-  sessing its threat matrix and adapt-  the remarks made by Nupur Shar-  ing leadership will face to minimize
        tially comply with China’s demands   ing counter-terrorism strategies.   ma about Prophet Mohammad to   the threat it and its dispersed affili-
        of not letting the Uyghur militants   Al-Qaeda had established its Indian   issue a threatening letter in June   ates still pose to the world.
        use Afghanistan’s porous border   affiliate in 2014. Al-Zawahiri incited   2022 about staging suicide bombings
        via  Xinjiang  province  to  attack  the   communal tensions through his vid-  in  Delhi,  Gujarat,  Uttar  Pradesh,   Saman Ayesha Kidwai is Research
        mainland.                         eo messages in response to the hijab   and Mumbai as retribution. As per   Analyst at Manohar Parrikar Institute
            The successful operation to take   controversy in Karnataka in Febru-  ‘The  Khorasan  Diary’s’  tweet  on  7   for Defense Studies and Analyses,
        out al-Zawahiri, who masterminded   ary 2022.                       August 2022, around two al-Qaeda              New Delhi
        some of the most devastating attacks   Five terrorists linked to the An-  in the Indian subcontinent terrorists   Views expressed are of the author and
        on American targets—9/11 and the   sarullah Bangla Team, an al-Qaeda   were killed using an American drone   do not necessarily reflect the views of
        attack on the USS Cole in 2000, will   affiliate  based  in  Bangladesh,  were   strike in Ghazni province. Activities   the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
        bring closure to the victims’ families.   arrested  from  Barpeta,  Assam,  in   of  most of the  al-Qaeda terrorists   Government of India.
        It could also boost President Biden’s   April 2022. The terror module was   have been traced to this region.
        popularity and that of his Demo-  deeply embedded in the recruitment    Overall, the drone strike may     This is the abridged version of
        cratic Party, ahead of the mid-term   and radicalization of youth in the   not drastically alter India’s foreign   the Introduction of the book which ap-
        elections in November 2022. As per   area.  As  per  the  documents  seized   policy, particularly regarding hu-  peared first in the Comment section of
        a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll, his ap-  from Saiful Islam alias Haroon   manitarian aid towards Afghanistan.   the website (www.idsa.in) of Manohar
        proval ratings stood at 40 per cent on   Rashid, Barpeta terror module’s re-  The interim Afghan leadership has   Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies
        3 August 2022, as against 55 per cent   ported leader, the recently inducted   repeatedly extended assurances to   and Analyses, New Delhi on August
        in January 2021.                  young men were deeply engaged in   the Indian government about dis-             20, 2022


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