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OPINION AUGUST 26, 2022 | The Indian Eye 10

US Drone Strike on Al-Zawahiri:

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPLICATIONS

The strike against al-Zawahiri is being hailed as a vindication of the US’s over-the-horizon strategy in eradi-
cating terrorism without placing boots on the ground

SAMAN AYESHA KIDWAI cratic Movement are underway, me- a decades-long terrorist network, continent, with presence in India,
diated by Sirajuddin Haqqani. Amid would never cease. Bangladesh and the Maldives. They
n 31 July 2022, al-Qaeda’s an economy that is in freefall and Al-Zawahiri’s death might might use their leader’s ‘martyrdom’
face of terror, Ayman al-Za- repeated attempts made by subse- result in a power struggle within to galvanize support among the rad-
Owahiri, became the first ma- quent governments to get off the Fi- al-Qaeda, mainly because he did icalized youth. Within the various
jor successful target of America’s nancial Action Task Force’s (FATF) not name a successor. Currently, the factions, rogue leaders could use the
‘Over-the-Horizon’ strategy, after its ‘grey list’, it would not be a surprise former number two in the organiza- uncertainty and instability brought
polarizing withdrawal from Afghan- if a deal was struck to keep the econ- tion, Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian jihad- about by contested change of guard
istan in August 2021. The Biden ad- omy afloat in exchange for the use of ist residing in Iran (although there to fuel their ambitions. This could
ministration initiated the strategy in its airspace. Whether this damages are reports he has now crossed the occur even among the supposed
2021 to conduct counter-terrorism its chances of arriving at truce with border into Afghanistan), is best po- al-Qaeda loyalists and those who
operations in Afghanistan without the TTP is to be seen. sitioned to assume the reins. How- had pledged ‘bayah’ or allegiance to
placing boots on the ground.1 Over US Secretary of State, Antony ever, as per analysts, his credibility al-Zawahiri after Bin Laden’s death.
two decades after the organization’s Blinken, referred to al-Zawahiri’s and resonance with other members, This complexity could however
foremost ideologue, Osama bin Lad- presence in Kabul as a gross viola- within and beyond the parent outfit, open avenues for further exploita-
en, was eliminated in Abbottabad tion of the Doha Agreement. While have been under significant doubt. tion by the US to build on its over-
(Pakistan), his successor was killed the Afghan government initially de- There have been reports about how, the-horizon strategy and eliminate
when Hellfire R9X missiles were nied the strike had happened, later, for example, at least three unnamed other terrorists on Federal Bureau of
launched at a safe house in Kabul, its spokesperson, Zabiullah Muja- affiliates have refused to accept his Investigation’s (FBI) most-wanted
reportedly owned by Afghanistan’s hid, decried the violation of Afghan authority. list, with millions of dollars of boun-
interim Minister of Interior and sovereignty. Meanwhile, pro-Taliban Online discussion forums have ty on their heads. Pitting one rival
leader of the most powerful fac- Afghan factions have taken to the glorified al-Zawahiri’s ‘martyrdom’ faction against the other within the
tion within the Taliban, Sirajuddin streets, chanting ‘down with U.S.A.’, as part of the broader jihadist strug- same affiliate could have damaging
Haqqani. condemning the strike that violated gle. Pro-al-Qaeda channels assert consequences for their survival. By
Although the Pakistani For- their country’s territorial integrity. that Zawahiri’s death will not demor- taking out key leaders, the US may
eign Ministry has denied the allega- Sirajuddin Haqqani, days before alize the cadres, noting that ‘whoev- set back the terrorist outfits’ agen-
tions that their airspace was used to the strike occurred, had asserted er thinks the height of the peak of das but would find it more challeng-
conduct the strike, Prime Minister that Afghanistan was bereft of any [camel] hump of Islam is linked to a ing to eradicate causal factors that
Shahbaz Sharif reportedly granted al-Qaeda presence. The new regime person is delusional’. They hope to give rise to support for their violent
access to the American drone that sought diplomatic breakthroughs recruit other radicalized Islamists acts. Hard power has rarely yielded
took out al-Zawahiri, via Baloch- with neighboring countries and tried worldwide, by using his martyrdom a sustainable solution in achieving
istan. Pakistan’s involvement in the to convince them about its changed as an example. They might encour- peace—in wars against opposing
strike could have implications for posture, particularly on terrorism. age their members to stage retaliato- national armies, terrorist groups, or
the strained Taliban–Pakistan rela- The drone strike has however reaf- ry attacks against American targets guerilla forces waging an insurgency.
tionship. Negotiations between the firmed what analysts knew heading or governments backed by them. A pro-Taliban telegram channel,
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) into the post-Ghani era—al-Qaeda Over the years, al-Qaeda affili- Anfal Afghan Agency, blamed Is-
and PM Sharif-led Pakistan Demo- and the Taliban’s ties, bolstered by ates have spread to the Indian sub- Continued at next page... >>

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