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NATION MAY 13, 2022 | The Indian Eye 8

4.7 million Covid-19 deaths in India?

Govt and experts blast new WHO report

Health Ministry says that the validity and robustness of the models used and

methodology of data collection are questionable

OUR BUREAU with data that we don’t agree with
the methodology followed for us,” he
Geneva/New Delhi
added.
ew estimates from the World All India Institute of Medical
Health Organization (WHO) Sciences in New Delhi Director Ran-
Nshow that the full death toll deep Guleria objected to the WHO’s
associated directly or indirectly with approach and gave three reasons for
the COVID-19 pandemic between it. “I have objections and I will give
1 January 2020 and 31 December three reasons for that. India has a
2021 was approximately 14.9 million very robust system of birth and death
(range 13.3 million to 16.6 million). registration which has been going on
According to the WHO report, more for decades. We know it works very
than 4.7 million people in India are well and that data is available,” said
thought to have died because of Guleria.
COVID-19. AIIMS Director further said that
India has strongly objected to the data should be used to see the num-
use of mathematical models by the ber of excess deaths that happened
WHO for projecting excess mortali- India has been one of the worst-affected countries during the pandemic (ANI) during this time and excess deaths
ty estimates concerning coronavirus that could be attributable to COVID
and has said that authentic data is and WHO didn’t use that data.
available. The Director General of “Secondly-- data that WHO used
the Indian Council of Medical Re- is more on hearsay evidence-- what’s
search (ICMR) Dr Balram Bhargava there in media or unconfirmed sourc-
on Thursday said the country has sys- es. That data is questionable. Mod-
temic data pool and it does not need elling on that data isn’t the correct
to rely on “modelling, extrapolations and scientifically right thing to do,
and press reports” for ascertaining especially, when you have data that is
COVID-related death. more robust,” he said.
Dr Bhargava said, “When we Giving the last reason Dr Guleria
had COVID deaths occurring, we said India has been very liberal in of-
did not have a definition of deaths. fering compensation for people who
Even WHO did not have one. If one died of COVID, that is, there is a very
gets positive today and dies after open manner.
two weeks, will it be COVID death? “So, even if there were excessive
Or the dies after two months or six deaths that were COVID related,
months - will it be COVID death?” they would have been recorded be-
“So, for that definition, we looked at cause people would have come for-
all the data and we came to the con- ward, and their relatives would have
clusion that 95 per cent of the deaths come forward for compensation. This
that occurred after testing positive for India has given more than 1.8 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines to its citizens so far (ANI) has not been the case as far as the
COVID-19 were occurring in the first numbers that WHO is predicting,”
4 weeks. So, a cut-off of 30 days was to rely on modelling, extrapolations spite of our emphatic writing, ratio- said AIIMS Director.
laid for the definition of death,” he and taking press reports and utilizing nal communication at the ministeri- Further speaking on WHO’s
stated. them for putting into a modelling ex- al level, they have chosen to use the claim on COVID deaths in India, he
DR Bhargava laid emphasis on ercise,” stressed DG ICMR. number that is based on modelling said that India needs to present the
systemic data instead of modelling Rereferring to excess mortality assumptions-- one size fits all kind of data which is scientific and more on
exercises to ascertain COVID deaths. estimates, the Health Ministry said assumptions.” an evidence basis. “So, the prediction
“We have such large amounts in a statement that the validity and Dr Paul said that India has been seems to be way beyond what actu-
of data. We have data of more than robustness of the models used and telling WHO that the country does al numbers are and is based on data
97-98 per cent of 1.3 billion who have methodology of data collection are not agree with the methodology fol- that is not substantiated. That is why I
been vaccinated with the first dose questionable. lowed by India. “We understand that think that this is something which we,
and nearly 190 crores vaccine doses Lashing out for projecting ex- this report has covered what they as a country, should object to and we
have been used. So, all that is sys- cess mortality estimates, Dr VK Paul, label as excess mortality, in the year need to present our data which is sci-
tematically collected. Once we have Member-Health, NITI Aayog, speak- spanning COVID19. India has been entific and more on evidence basis,”
this systematic data, we do not need ing to ANI said, “Unfortunately, in telling WHO via diplomatic channels he added.

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