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OpINION FEBRUARY 11, 2022 | The Indian Eye 12

and bilateral military exercises. Russia
has provided China with sophisticated
military hardware in the last decade,
while China has emerged as one of
the most prominent buyers of Russian
oil. In 2019 at a BRI forum, President
Putin in his speech mentioned that
China’s BRI meshes perfectly with the
gears of Russian-led Eurasian Eco-
nomic Union. So, in the short term,
China may continue to defer to Rus-
sia on the security front in the region.
Russia’s arms share of Central
Asian arms imports has remained
constant at around 60 per cent in the
last 10 years. On the other hand, Chi-
na has been slicing from the share of
Turkey, Ukraine, Spain, France and
others in Central Asia. Thus, China
may not be eating into Russia’s share
of the arms market now, but may
start doing so as China’s domestic
arms industry develops and seeks ex-
port markets. This can cause friction Russia and China have move closes on military affairs
and their relationship can see testing
times ahead. China’s role in construc-
tion activities for the Tajik military tral Asian power. India’s unresolved stands closed. India needs to engage op its own initiatives ignoring Rus-
may be acceptable to Russia, but to be border with China, construction of with Russia for restarting the facili- sia. Beijing’s decision to establish
sure that China will not use the infra- a highway through Indian territory ty, especially in light of what is hap- the QCCM in 2016, operate border
structure for military requirements in in Aksai Chin, and enabling Paki- pening in Afghanistan and China’s posts in Tajikistan and open up Chi-
the future is a question mark. This is stan to construct the China–Pakistan growing footprints in Tajikistan and na plus Central Asia, a multi-lateral
so because China has concerns about Economic Corridor through Paki- Gilgit Baltistan. India has engaged mechanism launched outside SCO in
radicalism in the Pamir’s. There are stan-occupied Kashmir has affected in military exercises in bilateral and 2020, points to actions by China that
tensions between Tajikistan and the India’s outreach to the region. The multilateral formats and, under the it is not worried about overstepping
Taliban. China has outstanding claims recent LAC (Line of Actual Con- aegis of SCO. In 2021, India’s had red lines in the future. Moscow’s
on Tajikistan’s territory. In 2011, Tajik- trol) violations and the construction engaged in exercises with all Cen- concerns remain understated due
istan had handed over 1,000 sq km of of a string of villages by China in Ti- tral Asian countries, which is a good to US–Russia tensions or the loss
territory to China in the Pamir region bet have caused a trust deficit. Any sign. The Kazakh Defense Minister of Ukraine to the West. Neverthe-
in lieu of a loan. If in the long run, Chi- Chinese military presence in Central Lt Gen Nurlan Yermekbayev visited less, the shift in the balance of dom-
na attempts to slice a portion of the Asia would widen the cracks. Anoth- Jodhpur and Jaisalmer in April 2021. inance and China’s nonchalance to
strategically important Wakhan corri- er cause for concern is the China’s India has trained Kazakh troops in Russia in Central Asia is growing. It
dor as a justification to stem vulnera- encirclement strategy and attempts UN Peacekeeping Operations and has the potential to vex the complex
bilities from Afghanistan, it can cause to limit India’s role in the region operated with them in its UNFIL chessboard in Central Asia, which
serious consternation with Russia. through the Pakistan proxy. Pakistan Battalion. There is a military medi- Russia considers its sphere of influ-
The popular narrative in Central seeks connectivity by road to Uzbeki- cine agreement with Uzbekistan and ence. Will Russia move to re-balance
Asia was that Russia is the dominant stan via Kabul and to Kazakhstan via India has helped Kyrgyzstan in con- China’s growing influence in Central
security partner while China takes Kashgar in China. It realizes India’s structing a medical research facility. Asia or would Central Asia witness
the lead in economic affairs—‘Russia dilemma in reaching out to Central India needs to continuously keep a resurgent muscular dragon holding
Protects–China Invests’. If we were to Asia. PM Imran Khan during his ad- raising the bar and remain in busi- both the carrot and the stick in Cen-
dilate this, does it mean, China will let dress at the Islamabad Security Dia- ness through the export of defense tral Asia? These are some pertinent
this narrative remain forever? Will it logue on 17 March 2021, raised the platforms and in areas such as Artifi- questions to ponder upon.
continue to play second fiddle to Rus- Kashmir issue as a ‘quid pro quo’ to cial Intelligence, software and space
sia in the security domain, even when offering India a direct route to Cen- to provide Central Asian countries Colonel Deepak Kumar is
its economic interests grow? Will Chi- tral Asia. India will therefore want alternatives other than China. In- Research Fellow at Manohar Parrikar
na want its soft power to be protected to counter the influence of Pakistan dia’s membership of the SCO in Institute for Defense Studies and Anal-
by Russia? in Central Asia. However, China’s 2017, ostensibly on Russia’s biding yses, New Delhi
close ties with Pakistan and its resur- to balance China in the region, has
IMPeratIves For IndIa gent role in Central Asia can affect given India a stage in Central Asia. It Views expressed are of the author and
China views expansion into Cen- India’s ability to influence favorable would be detrimental to India’s stra- do not necessarily reflect the views of
tral Asia through the lens of sourcing outcomes vis-à-vis China and Paki- tegic interests if China allows its mil- the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
resources and markets for Chinese stan in Central Asia. itary presence to influence policies in Government of India.
goods and projecting power. India India has a small presence in Central Asian countries.
too considers the region essential Tajikistan with a military training Conclusion This is the abridged version of the
to nurture and expand its strategic team and an India–Tajik friendship At present, Beijing’s military article which appeared first in the
potential. There is natural compet- hospital at Bokhtar (Kurgen Teppa). presence in Central Asia is calibrat- Comment section of the website (www.
itiveness and thus, China will exer- It spent about US$ 70 million from ed to keep Russia’s sensitivities in idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
cise whatever capabilities it has to 2002 to 2010 to renovate the dis- mind. In future, China may not de- for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
prevent India’s elevation as a Cen- used Ayni airbase in Tajikistan. That fer to Russia but may simply devel- Delhi on February 1, 2022

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