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OPINION JANUARY 03, 2025 | The Indian Eye 11

tion in the Syrian Civil War came at
a crucial moment, as the Syrian gov-
ernment had lost control of almost
80% of its territories.
The Russian intervention helped
stabilise the deteriorating situa-
tion for the Assad regime. Through
massive targeted airstrikes on forc-
es opposing the Syrian government,
including the ISIS, the Kremlin
achieved its immediate goals of re-
sisting a regime change and deliv-
ering a significant blow to the ISIS.
However, Russia’s goals in Syria far
transcended these immediate goals
as Kremlin looked for a more pro-
active role in the world order and to
reassert its role as a major power.
By establishing itself as a major
power broker in the region and by
preventing the collapse of the Assad
regime, Moscow had expressed its
willingness to resist the universali-
sation of the western liberal order
through the use of colour revolu-
tions, argued many Russian scholars.
Now, with Assad’s regime gone,
Moscow is looking towards a period
of uncertainty as the new regime is
still taking its shape. Moscow’s pri-
mary goal, in this context, lies in se- The good news for Russia is that the new Syrian regime, for now, has not demonstrated hostility against Russia,
curing its naval and air bases—Tartus keeping the possibility of a Russian presence in Syria open (Agency file photo)
Naval base, which gives Russia ac-
cess to the Mediterranean, and the
Khmeimim Air Base, established in sia, too, has realised the new realities regarding the resurgence of the ISIS Russia, historically, has enjoyed
2015—to ensure its continued pres- and has begun engaging with the new may prompt the new Syrian leader- a good relationship with Syria and
ence in the country. leadership to protect its assets and ship to cooperate with Russia given its people. There is no way it cannot
interests in Syria. For some Russian the fact that Mosco has significant build a new kind of relationship with
The setback for Moscow, be- analysts, the Syrian debacle is not a experience of fighting against the Is- the upcoming regime. Sacrificing
setback for Kremlin on the scale as lamic state. some of its privileges during the As-
cause of the Syrian debacle, initially envisaged. Assad, in anyway, had become sad regime should not be a non-start-
however, is not only limited Yes, Russia has lost a valuable a burden on Kremlin given his stub- er for Kremlin to engage with the
ally in the Middle East, but Kremlin born attitude towards questions of new government of Syria.
to these immediate strategic can now direct its complete focus on power sharing with the opposition Aman Kumar is a Research Associate
interests. Its consequences the Ukraine campaign. Besides, Rus- and on many occasions did not listen at Indian Council of World Affairs, New
to his Russian partners. He was pre-
sia still has significant presence in
could impact Russia’s broad- Libya, and Moscow has restructured siding over a hollow state, mired by Delhi. Views expressed are personal.
er strategy in Middle East as its Wagner operations in Africa. economic dilapidations, illegal drug This article first appeared in the web
Russia has significantly improved its trade, corruption and, despair and articles section of the website (www.icwa.
well as Africa, particularly the standing in Africa, which almost re- apathy for his loyalists in the bureau- in) of Indian Council of World Affairs,
Sahel region. Russia’s capa- mains independent of its presence in cracy and the army. New Delhi, on December 24, 2024
Syria and even in Libya, where Rus-
bility to support its allies and sia continues to enjoy a favourable
clients, when Kremlin is busy position. As far as the status of the
Russian bases are concerned, they
with its own war in Ukraine, is have not been entirely vacated and
an issue that directly impacts need to be tracked for future clarity.
It is still too early to conclude
the credibility of Russia as a that Russia has lost its footing in
security guarantor for these Syria. Yes, the loss of the Assad re-
gime is a geopolitical setback, but
friendly regimes. the Kremlin seems ready to adapt to
post-Assad realities in Syria. Its glob-
The good news for Russia is that al aspirations and the renewed Rus-
the new Syrian regime, for now, has sian engagement with the non-West-
not demonstrated hostility against ern world, in the aftermath of its war
Russia, keeping the possibility of a in Ukraine, gives Russia to stay en-
Russian presence in Syria open. Rus- gaged in Syria. Besides, the concerns

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