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OPINION OCTOBER 06, 2023 | The Indian Eye 10

Pakistan’s Multifaceted Political

Crisis and the Possible Road Ahead

It is difficult to predict the outcome of the ongoing political crisis in Pakistan. However, analysts rightly believe
that this election, whenever it takes place, is going to be a test of Army’s predominance in Pakistani politics

ASHISH SHUKLA government and went on to blame se-
curity establishment.
olitical crises are not a peculiar On 10 April 2022, Imran Khan
phenomenon associated with was removed from office, as he lost
PPakistan. Nation states through- the No-Confidence Vote in the Na-
out the world have faced some sort of tional Assembly. Shehbaz Sharif was
political crisis at one point of time or sworn in as the new Prime Minister
the other. However, mostly they learn next day and since then Imran Khan
from the crisis, take necessary mea- resorted to open accusations against
sures and precautions and work hard the powerful security establishment,
to ensure that they do not have to face especially the top brass. As he was still
a similar situation again. However, un- popular with the masses, he thought of
like most other nations in the world, taking advantage of his popularity and
Pakistan it seems refuses to learn tried to force the new dispensation for
and has been struggling to cope with an early election. On 11 April 2023, to
crises one after another, since 1947. pressurise the new government, 123
The present political crisis in Pa- PTI Members of National Assembly
kistan is multifaceted. In order to un- (MNAs) resigned en mass. With secu-
derstand and analyse various aspects rity establishment backing the PDM,
of the crisis, it is important to look into In October 2021, the difference between Qamar Javed Bajwa and Imran Khan came to the fore Imran Khan’s pressure tactic did not
the context in which it is unfolding. In result in a favourable outcome.
its 14 September editorial, the prom- over the alleged transfer of the then DG-ISI Gen. Faiz Hameed (File photo) In January 2023, Imran Khan
inent English daily newspaper The decided to dissolve the provincial as-
Dawn wrote that “The economy is in system and structures it had evolved they were being publicly blamed for semblies in Punjab and Khyber Pukh-
a historic mess … Households can- after Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s depar- bringing him into power by the oppo- tunkhwa so that the federal govern-
not pay their electricity and food bills ture from the political scene. From sition. In a recent discloser by Shahzad ment is forced to announce provincial
… Terrorism, too, is on the rise. The 2008 till 2018, there was smooth pow- Akbar, who earlier served as Imran elections. The ruling dispensation and
state of human rights in the country is er transfer at the federal level. The Khan’s advisor for accountability and Election Commission did not go by the
dire. And political space is as narrow governments, if not the Prime Minis- interior, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa constitutional rule book. They refused
as ever.” ters, completed their five-year tenures and Gen. Faiz Hameed did not help to conduct the election within the stip-
Pakistan has barely come out of in office. PTI candidate Abdul Hafeez Shaikh ulated period of 90 days from the date
an imminent economic default in late The security establishment, us- who hotly contested electoral battle of dissolution. Whereas National As-
June 2023 when International Mone- ing Panama Papers disclosures, built for Senate membership against former sembly did not sanction the required
tary Fund (IMF) agreed to dispense the case for Nawaz Sharif’s remov- Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani. budget, the security establishment,
US$ 3 bn as part of US$ 6.5 bn bailout al. Many considered it a soft coup In October 2021, the difference citing internal security challenge, ex-
package signed in 2019. As per the re- through judiciary to oust Nawaz Shar- between Qamar Javed Bajwa and Im- pressed its inability to provide securi-
cent data available in public domain, if from power. The allegation against ran Khan came to the fore over the ty personnel for the smooth conduct
Pakistan received US$ 1 bn from him was that he did not declare a alleged transfer of the then DG-ISI of elections. Chief Justice Umar Ata
China in June, US$ 2 bn from Saudi salary of 10,000 dirham as part of his Gen. Faiz Hameed. The COAS want- Bandial took suo motu notice of the
Arabia4 and US$ 1.2 bn from IMF5 income in his nomination papers. No- ed Gen. Nadeem Anjum to take over delay in holding polls in Punjab and
in July which ensured that the country tably, Nawaz Sharif assumed the po- as new DG-ISI, whereas Imran Khan Khyber Pukhtunkhwa assemblies.
did not default. sition of Chairman in his son Hasan wanted to retain him till the next gen- Later, when the apex court passed a
Ethnic and sectarian fault lines Nawaz’s company Capital FZE to se- eral election. Despite attempts made judgement to conduct election in Pun-
are starkly visible. The indigenous cure an Iqama—a UAE work visa that by Imran Khan, the rift widened to the jab on 14 May, the ruling elites locked
terror outfits that politico-security facilitated his access to the Gulf state extent that Pakistan Army refused to horns with the judiciary itself and went
elites consider belonging to ‘Bad Ter- during his years in exile. The Supreme back him on internal political matters. on to violate its judgement.
rorist’ category – especially the Teh- Court held him guilty under Article This was the time when Army started Amid demands to conduct elec-
reek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), have 62 (1) (f) of the Constitution which claiming to be ‘neutral’. The opposi- tions as per the date given by the
renewed their momentum with a se- requires a member of the National tion People’s Democratic Movement Supreme Court, Imran Khan faced a
ries of attacks against the Pakistani Assembly to be Sadiq and Ameen (PDM) sensed an opportunity to get tough situation on the political front.
armed forces in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (Honest and Righteous). rid of Imran Khan from power. A No The National Accountability Bureau
and elsewhere. Pakistan, at present, Initially, the establishment’s ‘Proj- Confidence Motion was tabled in the (NAB), the anti-corruption watchdog,
has a highly fragmented society and ect Imran’ was going well but in due National Assembly in March 2022. In arrested him on 9 May 2023 following
an even more fragmented political course of time, Army became frustrat- the wake of an imminent defeat, Im- which his supporters went on a ram-
class which is on the way of destroying ed with Imran Khan’s failure to deliver ran Khan started raising the point of a
whatever semblance of democratic good governance, and perhaps at how foreign funded conspiracy against his Continued on next page... >>

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