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OPINION                                                           SEPTEMBER 09, 2022  |      The Indian Eye 12



        withdrawal from the Joint Compre-                                                                     cooperation with Russia. Moreover,
        hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in                                                                     the return of Taliban in Afghanistan
        2018 by Trump administration and                                                                      is a common concern for New Delhi,
        the escalation of tensions leading to                                                                 Moscow and Tehran. Consequently,
        the killing of Qassem Soleimani in                                                                    India has been skeptical of joining
        2020 by US drones in Baghdad add-                                                                     the US-led alignment against Russia
        ed to the question on regional securi-                                                                over its invasion of Ukraine. Even
        ty. The Biden administration despite                                                                  with China, despite the deterioration
        engaging  in  indirect  talks  with  Iran                                                             in relations, New Delhi has avoided
        is yet to re-enter into a nuclear deal                                                                entering into strategic competition
        within or outside the JCPOA frame-                                                                    with Beijing but is focusing on capac-
        work. Nonetheless, India remains                                                                      ity building for now. Even in the In-
        skeptical of joining any regional geo-                                                                do-Pacific, India underlines the need
        political alignment targeting Iran                                                                    for all countries to adhere to rules-
        because of its strategic interests in                                                                 based international order. Nonethe-
        Afghanistan and Central Asia and in-                                                                  less, the growing Chinese footprints
        vestments in bilateral relations with                                                                 in the Gulf and Middle East can have
        Iran including in the development                                                                     strategic implications for India, given
        and operation of the Chabahar Port.                                                                   India’s wider interests in the region
            The Russia factor is also im-                                                                     but there are no signs of this becom-
        portant from a geopolitical perspec-  Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the I2U2 virtual Summit in New Delhi in July (ANI/ PIB)  ing a serious concern in New Delhi
        tive. Russian invasion of Ukraine                                                                     as of yet.
        has heightened the European threat                                                                        The I2U2 signifies the increasing
        perception vis-à-vis Russian expan-                                                                   importance of mini-lateral initiatives
        sionism and geopolitical ambitions                                                                    and the continued significance of the
        reviving the Cold War era transat-                                                                    Middle East region in international
        lantic consensus against Moscow.                                                                      politics. The nascent quadrilateral
        The return of Russia to the Middle                                                                    grouping builds on the success
        Eastern theatre as a de facto military                                                                of Abraham Accords to bring
        power in Syria and the growing stra-                                                                  together like-minded international
        tegic relations between Russia and                                                                    and regional powers within a geo-
        Iran, and between China and Iran on                                                                   economic framework to find solutions
        the other hand, leaves enough room                                                                    to problems of human security.
        for speculations of the emergence of                                                                      The   I2U2    underlines  a
        a China–Russia–Iran alignment to                                                                      convergence of interests between
        challenge the US-led regional and                                                                     India, Israel, the US and the UAE
        international order.                US President Joe Biden addresses at the first I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-USA) leaders’ virtual   combining their core strengths to
            The  parallel  global  and  region-                                                               find innovative and unique solutions
        al developments with US–China–               summit, as Israel Prime Minister Yair Lapid listens, in July. (ANI)  to economic and developmental
        Russia and US–Israel–Iran tensions                                                                    challenges. The focus is on bringing
        mean that the launch of I2U2 has   with regional countries, and there is a   (FDI) in areas such as food security   together US leadership, Israeli
        been viewed from the geopolitical   marked improvement in political and   and clean energy.           innovation,  UAE’s  financial  clout
        perspective of US reasserting its   strategic relations with the region un-  Additionally,  the  I2U2  signifies   and Indian market and their
        regional role in the Middle East.   der Prime Minister Modi. While thus   India’s growing strategic convergence   collective entrepreneurial spirit to
        Nonetheless, India remains cautious   far, the focus in India was on boost-  with the US, Israel and the UAE. In-  address problems of water, food
        of any such speculation because of its   ing bilateral relations with individual   do-US relations have improved sig-  and health security, as well as poor
        strong bilateral relations with both   regional countries, the growing inter-  nificantly  in  the  past  decade,  both   connectivity and  need  for  clean
        Russia and Iran. Hence, from New   est in the region, together with the vi-  because of the improved bilateral   energy. Nonetheless, there are
        Delhi’s point of view, the focus on   tality of the Gulf and Middle East in   relations as well as due to the conver-  geopolitical challenges which would
        geo-economics and human security   international politics, energy security   gence of interests in the Indo-Pacific.   require deft handling by the partner
        is the main glue for the I2U2.    and maritime security in the western   With Israel and the UAE too, India’s   countries.  Notwithstanding  the
            India has vital interests in the   Indian Ocean mean that New Delhi   relations  have  improved  significant-  challenges, the I2U2 is a promising
        Gulf and Middle East. Nearly 8.5   is looking to broaden its regional en-  ly over the past decade. This means   initiative with immense potential for
        million Indians reside in the GCC   gagements.                      that New Delhi is more comfortable   cross-regional cooperation, and if it
        states and their safety and security   The I2U2 signifies a gradual shift   in joining forces with Washington,   succeeds, can prove to be a template
        is a priority for New Delhi. Besides,   in India’s approach towards the Mid-  Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi to explore   for future cooperation.
        Indian expatriates in the Gulf con-  dle East region. India’s foray into   possibilities for geo-economic coop-  Dr Md. Muddassir Quamar is
        tributed nearly 30 per cent of the an-  I2U2 underlines that there is a great-  eration in the region.  Associate Fellow at Manohar Parrikar
        nual remittances received in India in   er  clarity  in  terms of  the emerging   There are, however, some pit-  Institute for Defense Studies and
        2020–21. India also depends on hy-  contours of India’s approach towards   falls. As noted earlier, India is unlike-  Analyses, New Delhi
        drocarbon imports from the region   the Middle East with the objective   ly to join any geopolitical alignment
        for ensuring its energy security. There   of greater cooperative engagements   that can harm its interest  vis-à-vis   This is the abridged version of
        are also strong business, trade and in-  with strategic partners for advance-  Iran and Russia. India has invested in   the Introduction of the book which
        vestment relations with the regional   ment of human security. India is   the development of Shahid Beheshti   appeared first in the Comment
        countries, especially the GCC states.   also looking to capitalize on the new   Port in Chabhar in southeast Iran as   section of the website (www.idsa.in) of
        Over the years, India has gradually   mini-lateral initiative to bring unique   an alternative connectivity route to   Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense
        strengthened its diplomatic, politi-  scientific and technological solutions   Afghanistan and Central  Asia  and   Studies and Analyses, New Delhi on
        cal, economic and security relations   along with foreign direct investments   has close connectivity and arms trade   September 3, 2022


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