Page 12 - The Indian EYE 060923

OPINION JUNE 09, 2023 | The Indian Eye 12

allies, drawing them away from the
Indo-Pacific. More importantly, a
prolonged conflict would probably
weaken both Europe and Russia, re-
laxing China’s strategic environment
in both Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific
region.
In terms of policy responses,
therefore, China did not stand by
either Russia or the West. China
sought to distance itself from Rus-
sia’s actions by calling for dialogue
and respect of territorial integri-
ty. Beijing remained very cautious
about not appearing to provide
concrete material support to Russia
in its war efforts against Ukraine.
Beijing also assured Ukraine that
China will never attack Ukraine or
challenge its territorial integrity.
Alternatively, China intensified its
criticism of NATO and popularized
anti-US and NATO propaganda.
The Chinese leadership also ignored
Western pressure to press Russia to
stop the Ukraine war and continued
strengthening its strategic and eco- Xi Jinping spoke to the Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky informing him that China’s “core stance is to facilitate talks for peace” (File photo)
nomic partnership with Russia.
A year into the war, China’s per- nuclear weapons when Xi Jinping for revival of stalled discussion on intention of both parties to come to
ception of the Ukraine crisis has not informed German Chancellor Olaf Comprehensive Agreement on In- the negotiating table. Moscow has
changed, though its concerns are vis- Scholtz that nuclear weapons cannot vestment (CAI) trade pact. The EU vowed to press on with its offensive.
ible. The state-media Global Times, be used in the war. This same senti- Chief also acknowledged that de- Concurrently, while Kiev has wel-
considered CCP’s mouthpiece, ment was reiterated in the 12 Points coupling from China was not possi- comed China’s role as a mediator, it
opined that the war has entered a Peace Proposal released during the ble, even as she stressed ‘de-risking’ intends to strive for more territorial
phase of stalemate. Since both Rus- first-year anniversary of Ukraine war trade ties. gains. Distrust of Chinese intentions
sia and Ukraine are determined to in 2023. Meanwhile, the divisions with- primarily in EU and the US could
maximize territorial gains before be- In this context, it is noteworthy in EU and between EU and the also become a major determining
ing forced to negotiate, the conflict that although Beijing at this point US over China are also apparent. factor. The European Commission
is likely to prolong. is unsure whether Russia will follow Reportedly, Brussels is struggling and the US have dismissed China’s
The real danger of the war of through with its threat of using tacti- to forge a consensus approach on peace proposal as a “political initia-
attrition that China perceives is cal nuclear weapons, it is determined China as some countries are inclined tive” aimed to distract international
that Russia’s heightened anxiety not to allow Russia frame China as to engage with Beijing over trade attention away from China’s support
could lead to use of tactical nuclear complicit in the decision. Therefore, and Ukraine crisis. Concurrently, as of Russia.
weapons. Highlighting this concern, Xi Jinping travelled to Moscow in Washington is increasing pressure At present, the US and the Eu-
China’s permanent representative March 2023 to issue a joint pledge on its allies to align closely with the ropean countries are closely follow-
to the UN Zhang Jun emphasized against deployment of nuclear weap- US against China, France along with ing whether China will provide mili-
that “nuclear weapons cannot be ons outside the national territories. some of EU top officials have openly tary aid to Russia.
used and a nuclear war cannot be The second factor influencing called for Europe not to follow US China in the past has kept away
fought”.10 Considering that Russia Beijing’s decision could be to ease policy on China. from the Ukraine crisis citing its
followed through with the threat to the geopolitical pressure China has Finally, Beijing also sees this as complex historical context. As the
send its army into Ukraine, Moscow been facing from the US and EU. an opportunity to revamp its image situation in Ukraine is constantly
similarly could use nuclear weapons This can work in different ways. as a stable force in the internation- evolving, it remains to be seen what
as Putin has threatened to use all First, China can try to negotiate with al realm. China’s feat in brokering a role China will play in the resolution
weapons systems available if Russia’s the EU and US to recalibrate their diplomatic thaw between Saudi Ara- of the conflict.
“territorial integrity” is threatened. policies towards China, in exchange bia and Iran promoted China’s im-
According to Western analysts, such for Beijing pushing Russia to the ne- age as a global diplomatic and eco- Mayuri Banerjee is Research Analyst
a possibility could pose a significant gotiating table. nomic leader. Accordingly, if China at Manohar Parrikar Institute for De-
moral dilemma to China, jeopardiz- Second, it can hope to weaken is able to facilitate talks between fense Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
ing China’s balancing act between their opposition by deepening the Russia and Ukraine, it will not only Views expressed are of the author and
Russia, Ukraine, US and EU. divisions within EU and between help Beijing strengthen its diplomat- do not necessarily reflect the views of
China’s attempts to engage as a US and EU about China by project- ic clout in Eastern Europe, but could
mediator for finding a political solu- ing itself as a valuable partner in the also send a message to the countries the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
Government of India.
tion to the conflict is possibly driven Ukraine crisis. in the Indo-Pacific about China be-
by three factors. First is to prevent There have been few indications ing a responsible power and about This article first appeared in the Com-
further escalation of the Ukraine in this regard. For instance, days be- its peaceful intent. ments section of the website (www.
conflict into a nuclear war. To that fore French President Macron and China’s ability to mediate in idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
end, in November 2022, Beijing sig- EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen’s the Ukraine crisis is contingent on for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
naled its opposition towards use of visit, China’s Envoy to EU called a number of factors, including on Delhi on May 26, 2023

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