Page 14 - The Indian EYE 052022

OPINION MAY 20, 2022 | The Indian Eye 14

lation in North Kazakhstan which
borders Russia. Both Crimea and
Donbas also have Russian minority
population in their midst.
Russia’s involvement in the con-
flict has led to it being one of the
most sanctioned nations in the world.
These sanctions against the Russian
economy will have direct implica-
tions for Central Asian states. Their
economies are highly dependent on
Russia for remittances, as well as for
the strength of their currencies. Like
most economies across the interna-
tional arena, they have experienced
the fallout of the COVID-19 pan-
demic.

Therefore, any impact on one
of its major economic providers
could have supplementary im-

pact on their economies in the
near future. According to the
World Bank, due to the Russia–
Ukraine crisis, Central Asian

economy is forecasted to shrink
by 4.1 per cent this year, com-
pared to 3 per cent before the Kazakhstan was recently in the grip of violence and uncertainty
crisis. The currencies of states

like Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and stan by 21 per cent, in Tajikistan by for Kyrgyzstan. This could lead to jikistan in the immediate term could
22 per cent and by 33 per cent in Kyr- Kyrgyzstan scrambling to find new look towards other powers like Chi-
Kyrgyzstan dropped in value gyzstan. countries for importing grains, at na for assistance.
The ongoing crisis in Ukraine
While the Russia–Ukraine con-
post the fall of the ruble, in the could affect the region’s food secu- higher costs. flict has affected the international
Security is another area of con-
early period of the crisis. rity. On 10 March 2022, Russia tem- cern with the Russians pre-occupied arena in more ways than one, re-
porarily banned the export of white in Ukraine. Central Asia is highly gionally, the impact has been quite
Investment projects funded by sugar and grain crops to the EAEU dependent on Russia for its security significant on Central Asian coun-
Russian banks under sanctions will countries. This could have an impact and this was evident in January when tries, presenting them with econom-
have to be cancelled. Since Russia is on Kazakhstan. Last year, Kazakh- the Collective Security Treaty Orga- ic and security challenges, over and
heavily sanctioned, Russia’s flagship stan increased its grain purchases nization (CSTO) troops were need- above the challenges of dealing with
economic organization, the Eurasian by 77 per cent, importing 2.3 million ed in Kazakhstan to quell protests the consequences of the COVID-19
Economic Union (EAEU), of which tonnes of grain, third only to Turkey that erupted due to high gas pric- pandemic and the coming to power
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are a and Egypt. Post the ban on export es. In order to subdue the protests, of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
part of, could lose its relevance as on Russian grains, Kazakh author- the Kazakh government requested Jason Wahlang is a Research Analyst
the viable economic partner in the ities have decided to ban wheat ex- CSTO intervention. The coming to
region in the long run. ports.22 This step is being planned power of the Taliban in Afghanistan in the Europe and Eurasia Centre at
Several million Central Asian to protect the domestic production has created an unsettling feeling for MP-IDSA, New DelhiKrutika Patil,
migrant labourers work in Russia, and supply and to ensure that there Central Asian states, particularly Ta- Research Assistant for the Project on
mainly from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, is no shortage. Any shortage could jikistan. Cyber Security at the Institute for De-
and Uzbekistan. Due to the damage lead to new protests and further fuel With Russia pre-occupied in fense Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
to the Russian economy, the income animosity towards the government Ukraine, the fear of the revival of Views expressed are of the author and
of the Central Asian labourers would that has already seen disapproval terror groups like the Islamic Move- do not necessarily reflect the views of
be impacted, which would mean from the public just three months ment of Uzbekistan, Hizb-ut-Tahrir,
lesser chances of sending home re- ago, on account of rising gas prices. or Islamic Jihadi Union could make the Manohar Parrrikar IDSA or of the
mittances and reverse migration in There could also be a trickle- Central Asia look for other options Government of India.
search of livelihood. The money sent down effect towards other Central for security. Tajikistan, a member of This is the abridged version of the
back home by the workers is crucial Asian states, particularly fellow CSTO, is highly dependent on Rus- article which appeared first in the
for the economies, and makes up 31, EAEU country, Kyrgyzstan. Kyr- sia’s 201st Division in Tajikistan for Comment section of the website (www.
27, and 12 per cent of their GDP, gyzstan imports 90 per cent of its its security. The presence of the Rus- idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
respectively. The World Bank esti- wheat from Russia and Kazakhstan. sian troops emboldens Tajikistan to for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
mates that the value of remittances Therefore, any ban in both countries stand up to the Taliban. Therefore,
from Russia would drop in Uzbeki- would impact the domestic supply with Russia focused on Ukraine, Ta- Delhi on May 12, 2022

www.TheIndianEYE.com