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OPINION MARCH 08, 2024 | The Indian Eye 12

Great Powers’ Game in Myanmar:

Counting Three Years of Military

Regime Through Geo-Political Lens

In Myanmar, China’s interests lie in its economic and strategic significance by accessing the Indian

Ocean directly. China’s unstoppable support of the Junta benefits its short- and long-term interests

DR. ANURADHA OINAM

n February 1, 2024, Myan-
mar completed its three years
Oof military regime under
the leadership of Min Aung Hlaing.
Since the February Coup in 2021,
Myanmar has been in turmoil, with
intense violence and humanitarian
crisis coupled with widespread dis-
placement because of the violent
clash between the military forces and
non-state armed groups called Ethnic
Armed Organizations (EAOs). One
of the salient features of the long-run-
ning civil war is the involvement of
the majority Barman ethnic group
allying with other rebel groups in the
pro-democracy movement against
the military. Another feature amidst
the complexity is the battle between
those who want to restore democracy
and those who support the military Myanmar gains protection from the United Nations being with Russia while reducing its dependency on China (File photo)
junta, given Myanmar’s vital geo-stra-
tegic and geo-political significance in
the region. This article explores the people have been displaced since 27 Since Feb 2021, Myanmar has been areas and villages where rebels are
February coup and assesses the role October 2023 and 2.6 million people ranked as one of the most violent prominent.
of rebel groups, especially after Oper- are displaced nationwide. of the fifty wars worldwide, accord-
ation 1027, which was launched by the ing to the Armed Conflict Location ALLIANCE OF REBEL GROUPS
Three Brotherhood Alliance. It fur- PUSH FACTORS and Event Data Project (ACLED). The conflict in Myanmar became
ther explicates the great powers’ game Myanmar, after a decade-long With the suspension of the National more intense after ‘Operation 1027’
amid the civil war in the changing military regime, was all set to transi- League for Democracy (NLD) along launched on 27 October 2023 by the
geopolitical dynamics of Myanmar. tion from military rule to democracy with other democratic parties of Three Brotherhood Alliance, consti-
Myanmar’s military regime under by conducting three successful elec- Myanmar, Tatmadaw provided little tuted by the Arakan Alliance (AA),
the leadership of Min Aung Hlaing tions between 2010 and 2020. With room for the democratic leaders and Myanmar National Democratic Al-
completed its three years on Febru- profound initiatives such as the re- the people of Myanmar. liance Army (MNDAA), and Taang
ary 1, 2024. On the other hand, the lease of political prisoners, press free- The long-running conflict’s im- National Liberation Army (TNLA)
people of Myanmar living within and dom and the functioning of political pact on Myanmar is multi-faceted. against the Junta. In this pro-democ-
abroad called the year 2024 the year parties, people were hopeful for the The country’s economy is affected racy movement, the involvement of
of the Spring Revolution. Undeni- new democratic transition. However, due to disruption in trade routes, the the majority of the Barman ethnic
ably, the country has been in turmoil these hopes were shattered, and they burden on logistics and interruptions group revolting against the military by
since Feb 2021. The simmering civil felt betrayed by the 2021 coup. This in ongoing international projects allying with other ethnic rebels is one
war continues with intense violence, military coup was not planned over- such as India-Myanmar- Thailand of the salient features. This new alli-
a humanitarian crisis with widespread night, as the military had the liberty to Trilateral Highways, KMMP and so ance formed by the EAOS from the
displacement because of the violent function in the quasi-democratic gov- on. Besides, human rights violations, country’s periphery and People’s De-
clash between the military forces and ernment in 2011 and 2015, respective- including mass killings, crimes against fense Forces (PDFs) comprised of the
non-state armed groups called Ethnic ly. Bertil Lintner, an expert on Myan- humanity, arbitrary detention, war Bamar ethnic majority, which is con-
Armed Organizations. It is estimated mar, states that “the military’s claim crimes, etc., are also reported. In ad- centrated in Myanmar’s Dry Zone,
that a total number of 50,000 people 2021 coup was not a coup but a con- dition, the military has used airstrikes the heartland of the Bamar majority,
have been killed, more than 660,000 stitutional change of government”. and shelling, targeting the populated Continued on next page... >>

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