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OPINION February 26, 2021 | The Indian Eye 18

changing pattern of

the china-india-us triangle

The triangular dynamic among China, India and the United States has come to resemble a stable

marriage – another ideal type identified by Professor Lowell Dittmer 40 years ago

s. Kalyanaraman ed in treaty commitments and
military forces stationed in, de-
hen the China-In- ployed to, and rotated through
dia-United States tri- the region.
Wangle began to form In contrast to the return
in the early years of this centu- of rivalry in the relationships
ry, it most closely resembled a between China and India and
ménage á trois. All three dyads China and the United States,
in the triangle – India-China, the India-US relationship has
India-US and China-US – were broadened and deepened into
characterised by equally ami- a comprehensive global strate-
cable relationships. Each coun- gic partnership. This, despite
try had an overall positive and the history of estrangement be-
cooperative policy towards the tween these two democracies
other two. India’s relationship throughout the second half of
with China recovered from the The border tussle with China has put India on alert and also made New the 20th century.
stumble caused by India high- Delhi’s ties with Washington stronger (ANI) As a result, the triangular
lighting China as the principal dynamic among China, India
reason for the 1998 nuclear tests. and the United States, whereas tual Control and eventually the and the United States has come
The two countries built on the the India-US relationship has border has to be consolidated to resemble a stable marriage
understanding reached in the witnessed steady progress. Two on the ground. As a result, the – another ideal type identified
1990s on maintaining peace and factors are responsible for this last few years have witnessed by Professor Lowell Dittmer 40
tranquillity along the border. change in the pattern of the repeated standoffs between the years ago. India and America
India-US relations also triangular dynamic. The first is two militaries along the disput- enjoy amity in their bilateral re-
traced a similar trajectory after the alteration in the underlying ed border areas. lationship, but both share adver-
the 1998 nuclear tests, which balance of power between Chi- For its part, India is con- sarial relations with China. This
the United States perceived as na and India and China and the cerned about China’s penetra- pattern appears set to continue
a huge setback to its non-prolif- United States, caused by Chi- tion of both the Himalayan secu- into the medium term. India is
eration policy objectives. Dense na’s meteoric rise as the world’s rity perimeter through close ties stepping up defence prepared-
economic linkages especially factory and the new fount of to Nepal and of the maritime ness and contemplating force
in the information technology investment, America’s decline security perimeter by gaining a restructuring to become better
sector were accompanied by a in both economic and political lease over Sri Lanka’s Hamban- prepared and capable against
spurt in the growth and influ- spheres signified by the Great tota Port. Indian concerns also China in the wake of the now
ence of the Indian diaspora in Recession and the domestic and extend to the China-Pakistan unwinding military crisis.
the United States. At the same global disruption caused by the Economic Corridor (CPEC),
time, China-US relations also Trump presidency, and India’s which traverses the territory of S. Kalyanaraman is Research
began to recover from contro- inability to sustain high growth Kashmir under Pakistan’s occu- Fellow at Manohar Parrikar
versies such as the US bomb- rates. The second, inter-linked, pation, thus undermining Indi- Institute for Defence Studies and
ing of the Chinese Embassy in factor is the strategic rivalry that an sovereignty, deepening Chi- Analysis, New Delhi
Belgrade during the Kosovo underlies China’s relationship na’s stakes on the Kashmir issue,
campaign of 1999 and the EP-3 with both India and the United and enhancing Chinese support Views expressed are of the author
incident of 2001 involving a col- States. for Pakistan. and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the Manohar Parrikar
lision between US and Chinese The India-China boundary In the case of China and the IDSA or of the Government of India.
military aircraft near Hainan. dispute has persisted since Chi- United States, the two countries
The year 2005 was thus a geo- na’s annexation of Tibet in 1950. have entered what Professor This is the abridged version of
political sweet spot for all three Negotiations both before and Graham Allison calls the Thu- the article which appeared first
dyads in the triangle. They ap- after the 1962 War have failed cydides Trap between a reigning in the Comment section of the
peared to be in an amicable and to yield a mutually acceptable hegemon and a rising challeng- website (www.idsa.in) of Mano-
stable ménage á trois. Things solution. China, according to er. America is keen on retain- har Parrikar Institute for Defense
unravelled thereafter between one expert, has come to the ing its 75-year long primacy in Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
both China and India and China conclusion that the Line of Ac- East Asia, which is manifest- on February 23, 2021

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