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OpINION JANUARY 07, 2022 | The Indian Eye 14

within the policy community of the achieve its strategic objectives with-
US and other Western countries on out provoking any possibility of nu-
NFU, though this debate has been clear escalation. Advocates of NFU
going on in a subdued manner for a claim that the reduction of salience
long period. The allies were appar- of the use of nuclear weapons may
ently sent a set of questionnaires to eventually result in realizing the re-
respond. Quite interestingly, even dundancy of nuclear weapons and
Chinese media like the Global Times the virtue of nuclear disarmament.
also joined the debate and reacted to Considering the emerging trend,
Western media reports. it can be easily predicted that the US
The Chinese media’s reaction is not going to adopt the NFU not-
tells a complex story about the unique withstanding the legislation for the
position of the US in the world. It is purpose introduced by some Demo-
one of the two countries which have crat Congress members and the open
been possessing more than 90 per letters sent to Japan or the US pol-
cent of the declared arsenals of the iticians. The Administration is also
world, and a decision about how to not going to adopt the narrowly or
use nuclear weapons may have an ex- The US has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world broadly defined ‘sole purpose’. Pre-
traordinary impact on global nuclear dominantly, the US policy making
thinking and behavior. China and its community sees ‘sole purpose’ as a
media are well aware of America’s sophisticated version of NFU. Some
hegemonic position even if the unipo- new phrases may be coined and a few
lar moment for the US is overlooked. new measures may be taken to con-
China may be a challenger to the US vey the message that steps towards
but to influence and shape the world reducing nuclear risks have been tak-
order, China understands that it has en. Such recommendatory measures
to undertake complex entanglement are appearing on the websites of dif-
with the American decision-making ferent think tanks.
process, possibly accepting the hier- To mitigate apprehensions of
archy in the global order. its allies, the US ought to exercise
The responses, reactions and de- Expanded Multilateral Option. If
bate on NFU have brought to light a NFU treaty is concluded and all
several issues, some of which are the nuclear weapon countries be-
lingering on for decades, some have come parties to it, this could be an
been discussed in the recent past and ideal situation. Otherwise, it should
others are reflection of the new issues China has developed hypersonic missiles which can beat the US defense systems approach Russia and other nuclear
and challenges tossed by the contem- weapon countries for developing an
porary reality. The status-quoists ar- does not have much basis because the adoption of NFU or sole purpose understanding on NFU, and have an
gue for distancing from the policy of the adoption of NFU does not mean will weaken nuclear deterrence as arrangement similar to 1925 Protocol
NFU, the arms control and disarma- the withdrawal of nuclear protection China will consider it a sign of weak- for the Prohibition of the Use in War
ment group favor adopting the NFU, umbrella or extended deterrence. ness of the US. In such a situation it of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other
and some contend and predict a mid- Some opponents maintain that is believed that instead of reciprocat- Gases, and of Bacteriological Meth-
dle path in the form of either funda- the NFU is disturbing the allies but ing, China will be emboldened. The ods of Warfare, popularly known as
mental purpose or existential threats American adversaries may yet not basic argument is that the removal the 1925 Geneva Protocol. The allies
instead of NFU. In fact, inclusion of find the posture credible. Some of of strategic ambiguity through NFU of US may feel less threatened if a
nuclear deterrence as the ‘sole pur- the allies apprehend large-scale con- will dismantle American nuclear de- universal protocol exists. As for the
pose’ of nuclear weapons has been ventional strike, which they feel may terrence. use of nuclear weapons against an
an old issue. Earlier the phrase ‘sole be deterred only by ambiguity re- Proponents of NFU argue that advanced conventional weapon or
purpose’ was considered the middle garding the use of nuclear weapons. by embracing it, the US will steer chemical or biological attack, it is a
path and it became quite intense in This will lead to a lose-lose situation the world to a low risk, if not ‘no remote possibility. It would be better
the run up to 2010 NPR. The Obama for the US. The reports indicate that risk’ zone. It may reduce the chance if US allies and opponents of NFU
Administration somehow found an the US allies expect some kind of of miscalculation and wrong signal- realize this soon.
innovative way to skirt the issue. pre-emptive nuclear strike from the ing. NFU is also considered an ef-
The much talked about Financial US, which will not happen if the US fective tool to constrain a President Rajiv Nayan is Senior Research
Times report informed that the US adopts NFU. The US nuclear weap- like Trump in the future. Democrats Associate at the Manohar Parrikar
allies had objected to the adoption of ons policy to deter large-scale con- and a section of the Republican Par- Institute for Defense Studies and
NFU. The report named some of the ventional and biological and chemi- ty dread a future scenario in which Analyses, New Delhi
allies who opposed the NFU. These cal attacks to reassure its allies and a President like Trump has nuclear Views expressed are of the author and
were: Australia, Germany, France, partners does not mean the pre-emp- briefcase and button. do not necessarily reflect the views of
the UK and Japan. The basic conten- tive nuclear strike. It is assumed that the US NFU the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
tion of the allies apparently was that Some argue that China is fast in- policy will set an example for the Government of India.
the change of the posture may “un- creasing its nuclear arsenals (about world, and others may also be forced
dermine long-established deterrence 1,000 by 2030) as the 2021 Penta- to imitate. The world will not have This is the abridged version of the
strategies aimed at Russia and Chi- gon report notes, and the US, un- to encounter the danger of escala- article which appeared first in the
na”. There is a fear that the adoption der START treaty, is limiting its de- tion to a level of nuclear exchange. Comment section of the website (www.
of NFU may lead to nuclearization ployable nuclear warheads to 1,500, The common refrain is that despite idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
by the US allies such as Japan and which could lead to a difficult securi- tall claims of its adversaries, the US for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
South Korea. Undoubtedly, this fear ty situation. The argument goes that has conventional superiority. It can Delhi on December 28, 2021

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