Page 14 - The Indian EYE 122421

OpINION DECEMBER 24, 2021 | The Indian Eye 14

sile launchers are considered the or-
der of the day, it has decided to buck
the trend. China appears to be imple-
menting a mixed approach. Mobility
is being complemented by survivabil-
ity. Silos will ensure survivability and
strengthen the second-strike capa-
bility of China if it continues to ad-
here to its no first use (NFU) policy.

tHe CHinese doCtrine

Does the 2021 Pentagon re-
port indicate changes in the nuclear
doctrine of China? In fact, the 2021
Pentagon report has not predicted
any major doctrinal shift in China’s
nuclear doctrine. The US securi-
ty establishment and the American
strategic community, over the last
few years, have maintained that the
Chinese establishment has internal-
ly made preparations for ignoring
the official nuclear doctrine under
certain conditions. In this regard,
a translated ‘restricted’ 2004 doc- The ongoing shift in the Ameri-
ument of the Chinese government can thinking vis-à-vis China is taking
has been in circulation.16 The doc- place. The American grand strate-
ument has not been acknowledged gy was to make China an important
officially by the Chinese govern- stakeholder of the global non-pro-
ment but a few Chinese academi- liferation system so that the world
cians do acknowledge the restrict- has strategic stability. However, as
ed document and discuss about it. American industry continued to do
The circulating 2004 ‘restricted business with China, the sanitization
document’ is called the nuclear doc- of the reports helped it in overlook-
trine and policy science of Second ing Chinese proliferation, and avoid
Artillery campaign. The Second Ar- imposing comprehensive sanctions
tillery force or nuclear force was re- on it, though occasionally, the US
named as People’s Liberation Army did impose institution-specific curbs
Rocket Force in December 2015. The on China. In recent years, it seems,
document mentions that China needs the American establishment has
a forceful nuclear coercion policy. If been disillusioned with China, and
it is assumed that the document is has begun to maintaining a tough
genuine, then China’s NFU policy is term “early warning counterstrike” 41 missiles for LOW, and has been posture and policy. The leaks could
conditional. Not only that, for sever- for LOW. In a way, the report consol- making preparations in this regard. be a step towards projecting a real-
al years, reports, including Pentagon, idates the impression generated over istic picture of China. For India, the
have been underscoring that China the years that China is practicing the ConClUsion increase in the number of intermedi-
has developed low-yield weapons policy of LOW in a different name. The appearance of this infor- ate, medium and short-range missiles
for both battlefield and deterrence Besides, the 2021 report also mation has shocked and puzzled the in China is a real matter of concern.
purposes. These forces are placed on highlights that China had an old plan world. Some are questioning the tim- The changing Chinese nuclear policy
‘combat readiness’ and ‘high alert’ for LOW through its land-based bal- ing of the appearance of the infor- may turn these missiles better weap-
duties. The recent Pentagon reports listic missile early warning radar in mation. A number of exercises are ons to target the Indian facilities.
have indicated that the DF-26 mis- the 1970s and 1980s. However, ac- taking place discussing strategic and
sile has been assigned to do a pre- cording to the report, China did not security implications of the feared Rajiv Nayan is Senior Research
cision strike with nuclear weapons. trust the land-based system and went expansion of the Chinese nuclear Associate at the Manohar Parrikar
As for Launch on Warning for the satellite-based system. For a stockpile. The strategic and security Institute for Defense Studies and
(LOW), it is believed that something couple of years, the Pentagon reports communities of different countries Analyses, New Delhi.
new has become evident. In reality, have been underlining the Russian are undertaking exercises from their Views expressed are of the author and
not only the 2004 ‘restricted’ docu- proposal to help China in developing own perspectives. The 2021 Penta- do not necessarily reflect the views of
ment but also the previous Pentagon some land-based and space-based gon Report continued the earlier ex- the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
report mentioned that China had early warning systems for missiles. ercise of assigning different missiles Government of India.
developed infrastructure like early The silos, which have been surfac- for different missions. If ICBMs are
warning command and control for ing in imagery through different the jewel of the crown targeting the This is the abridged version of the
the purpose of overcoming nuclear commercial satellite-based reports, US, other medium and intermediate article which appeared first in the
attack. It also maintains that a con- are supposed to strengthen LOW of range missiles are also considered Comment section of the website
siderable size of its nuclear forces China. The Pentagon reports point valuable in the emerging Asian bat- (www.idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar
are dedicated for LOW. The 2021 out that China is planning to use tlefield in the American thinking Institute for Defense Studies and Anal-
report informs that PLA uses the silo-based DF-5, DF-31A and DF- expressed in the Pentagon report. yses, New Delhi on December 14, 2021

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