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OpINION DECEMBER 24, 2021 | The Indian Eye 12

what does Pentagon report

say about the Chinese nuclear

forces’ capability?

In recent years, it seems, the American establishment has been disillusioned with China, and has begun to
maintaining a tough posture and policy. The leaks could be a step towards projecting a realistic picture of China

RAjIV NAYAN

n 3 November 2021, the Unit-
ed States Department of De-
Ofense (US DOD) released its
annual report to the Congress titled
“Military and Security Developments
Involving the People’s Republic of
China”, also called the Pentagon
Report. While the standard chap-
ters such as “Understanding China’s
Strategy” and “Resources and Tech-
nology for Force Modernization”
have featured in the recent years with
updated data, the 2021 report covers
three special topics— “The PRC’s
Effective Control Concept and PLA
Escalation Management Views”,
“PRC’s Evaluation of the 13th Five
Year Plan” and “PRC-India Border
Standoff”.
The information given in the also predicting the nuclear stock- inCreases in silos gin Banner in Inner Mongolia. The
2021 Pentagon Report about China pile of China and of other nucle- Like the drastic increase in the James Martin Center for Nonprolif-
increasing its nuclear warheads has ar-weapon countries, including nuclear stockpile in comparison to eration Studies in California had re-
grabbed the attention of the media, those which had not disclosed their the 2020 report, the 2021 report vealed the existence of a site in June
however, the report also has infor- nuclear weapons stockpile publi- also covered in detail the silo-based 2021, FAS did so in July 2021 and
mation on other elements of the Chi- cally or officially. The Federation nuclear capable missiles. The si- Chinese Aerospace Studies Institute,
nese nuclear forces. of American Scientists (FAS) and lo-based missiles had figured in the Air University—all three from the
China was the first nuclear-weap- SIPRI among others have been reg- reports already in the public domain US in August 2021. Interestingly,
on country to keep its nuclear weap- ularly publishing their estimates of before and after the publication of in 2021, too, the information on the
ons stockpile a secret. Before that, all the nuclear stockpile of China and 2020 report. Quite significantly, silos in the public domain has come
the nuclear-weapon countries used of other nuclear-weapon countries. the FAS had brought out a report through Non-Governmental Orga-
to announce the size of their nuclear In December 2020, Hans M. earlier in 2019, which mentioned nizations, which ostensibly procured
weapons stockpile publically or offi- Kristensen and Matt Korda from the that “satellite photos acquired from the data from commercial satellites.
cially, though the issue of verification Federation of American Scientists in Digital Globe (Maxar) show that Although the Chinese govern-
always dogged the claims and this their report predicted that China had the People’s Liberation Army Rock- ment remained quiet on the leaks on
would often result in accusation and approximately 350 nuclear warheads. et Force (PLARF) is building what all the three occasions, yet newspa-
counter-accusation. The authors underlined in their re- appears to be a new type of missile pers like the Global Times reacted to
After China’s nuclearization, port that their speculation of the Chi- silo in the missile training area near it. The reaction did not confirm the
no new nuclear weapon country has nese nuclear weapons is higher than Jilantai, possibly for use by a new news about the silos but did endorse
made its weapon stockpile public. that of the 2020 Pentagon report. ICBM”. In recent months, West- the Chinese need to modernize and
Israel has not even declared its nu- SIPRI, in its January 2021 re- ern media has been reporting the accelerate the production of its nu-
clearization, but it is widely acknowl- port, also predicted the same num- operation of the Chinese nuclear clear arsenals, especially ICBMs
edged as a nuclear-weapon country. ber—350 nuclear warheads. It un- weapons silos. The reports state that (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles).
The Pentagon reports give an derscored that in 2020, China had over 250 new long-range missile si- The leaks have illustrated that China
official American government esti- only 320 warheads. Other American los exist or are being constructed. has adopted some unorthodox and
mate of the Chinese nuclear weap- and European think tanks seem to These silos exist at three unpredictable pattern of missile de-
ons stockpile. Some Non-Govern- have copied the number given in the places—at Yumen and Hami in velopments. When the mobile mis-
mental Organizations (NGOs) are report of the FAS. north-western China and at Hang- Continued at next page... >>

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