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OPINION DECEMBER 02, 2022 | The Indian Eye 11

out and there is a provision, at least and trade between these camps are
ideally, that partner countries in the likely to be zero due to incompati-
Indo-Pacific need to be supported ble technological and technical stan-
and their economic and developmen- dards. Countries outside these camps
tal needs met to improve their resil- must then choose between either of
ience against Chinese coercion. these technical standards and in ef-
One of the first implicit mentions fect, proclaim their political ideology
of technology in the Work Report is too. Foreign policies of these coun-
in the first para itself, where Xi talks tries will inevitably be yoked to the
of great efforts dedicated to modern- respective camps’ ideologies.
izing China’s national defense and In order to avoid this scenario
Armed Forces. He also mentions, in from being played out in real-time,
the same breath, “external attempts” it is up to countries like India which
to blackmail, contain, blockade and have a decidedly independent foreign
exert maximum pressure on China. policy as well as an international re-
This is possibly a reference to the ex- pute of being an effective mediator,
port controls announced by Biden, in to either create bridging pathways to
the run-up to the 20th Congress. Chi- both emerging camps or create al-
na’s vulnerability in semiconductors India is slated to become a one trillion-dollar digital economy by 2025 and has committed to ternatives or a third option for open-
is well-known and documented. As source protocols. Any technical pro-
per Xi, it amounts to ‘technological reaching electronics manufacturing exports of US$ 300 billion by 2025–26 tocol requires both a huge market and
vassaldom’, especially in a category of the clout of the promoting country to
technologies such as AI, quantum and acquisition system believes in the and Russia on the other side. The rest become dominant. India is slated to
5G communication, which are essen- “good enough” model where defense of the world is up for grabs, digitally. become a one trillion-dollar digital
tial both for the military and economy. S&T development has to be quicker, For countries with an indepen- economy by 2025 and has committed
The report further states that ef- cheaper and able to be produced in dent foreign policy such as India, it to reaching electronics manufacturing
forts to build reliance on S&T have great volume. This is likely to undergo will be difficult to navigate both camps exports of US$ 300 billion by 2025–26.
been accelerated with the influx of a change, with the Chinese President at the same time, since the Chinese With a projected year-on-year
funds by the state increasing from exhorting the PLA to undergo a radi- camp will inevitably also include Rus- (YoY) growth of 7 per cent, India is
one trillion yuan to 2.8 trillion yuan, cal transformation in quality, in effect sia. India has steered clear of sticking likely to be one of the biggest elec-
allegedly the second highest in the emulating the gold-plated innovation to the tenets of any one country and tronics markets in the world, both
world. China also possesses the larg- model, but with Chinese characteris- is pursuing a policy of technological from an export and consumption
est cohort of R&D personnel in the tics. Similar to the US’s new Integrat- self-reliance in the form of ‘Atmanir- point of view. Being a simultaneous
world, something which even the US ed Deterrence approach, the Chinese bhar Bharat’. The building blocks of member of the Quad, Shanghai Co-
has acknowledged, though in com- ‘techno-security’ state believes in a CET, including the standard-setting operation Organization (SCO) and
parative terms. The report mentions seamless fusion across the civilian and bodies, are still in the hands of other the BRICS as well as the ASEAN Re-
breakthroughs in core technologies in national security spectrum. countries, especially the US. As with gional Forum (ARF), Goodwill Part-
key fields such as manned spaceflight, Xi cautions that the current pe- the case of SWIFT, where Russian ner at G7 and now holding the Chair
lunar and martian exploration, deep riod is replete with opportunities and financial and trade entities were dis- of the G20 for the next year, India is
sea and deep earth probes, supercom- challenges as well as unforeseen fac- barred from accessing the system for well poised to act as a bridging part-
puters, satellite navigation, quantum tors in the form of Black Swan and the transfer of funds, there will always ner to introduce and operationalize
information, nuclear power technol- Grey Rhino events. While the Black remain an apprehension that these policies that may result in certain min-
ogy and bio-medicine. The PLA has Swan refers to unforeseen events such so-called autonomous or decentral- imal digital commonalities so that the
been strengthened for the ‘new era’, as the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, a ized bodies will always be subject to carving up of techno-political camps
with combat effectiveness as the sole Grey Rhino event (one which is high- the diplomatic coercion of the world’s does not take place. In a worst-case
criterion for professionalism. “New ly probable and high impact but is yet strongest countries. As a result, it is scenario, India can help create open-
system, New Structure, New Configu- neglected) will likely refer to a US more advantageous to come up with a source technical systems, backed up
ration, New Look” is the mantra now involvement in China’s reunification third, open-source alternative. by the heft of its market that may be
for the PLA. attempts with Taiwan or very least, More specifically, the NSS calls adopted by countries unwilling to toe
The report also candidly ac- a crippling of China’s technological for constraining Russia’s strategic and a particular political line and yet not
knowledges challenges and shortcom- prowess in the short and medium economic sectors including defense compromise on their developmental
ings in China’s approach and efforts term, the time window coinciding with and aerospace. Russian armaments priorities.
in S&T. First and foremost is that the intended fruition of PLA’s mod- are heavily dependent on US and
China’s capacity for S&T innovation ernization and invasion of Taiwan. European-supplied semiconductors. Lt Col Akshat Upadhyay is Research
is not strong enough. This brings to Despite the vast difference be- This Russian dependence will have a Fellow, Strategic Technologies Centre at
mind the concept of ‘gold-plated in- tween the political systems of the US major impact on India since several Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense
novation’ introduced by Tai Ming and China, their approach towards Indian platforms depend to a great Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
Cheung,51 where he distinguishes the technology adoption, and means to extent on Russian technology and Views expressed are of the author and
military innovation models between stay ahead of each other in the great self-reliance will take some time to do not necessarily reflect the views of
the US and like-minded militaries power competition, are remarkably create indigenous capabilities. the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
and the Chinese PLA. While the US similar. Both the US and China, have The main challenge though, of Government of India.
and other high-end militaries be- placed CET as the cornerstone of their two opposing and highly incompati-
lieve in ‘gold-plated innovation’, i.e., respective foreign, economic and cul- ble techno-political systems, is likely This is the abridged version of the
pursuing next-gen technologies and tural policies. This has, in effect, cre- to manifest in the next decade. If this article which first appeared in the
capabilities irrespective of all other ated the likelihood of two opposing happens, the world will be carved out Comments section of the website (www.
considerations such as affordability, techno-political systems with Europe, into two groupings, not unlike the idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
suitability to end-user needs and de- the US and most likely Japan and ideological camps of the Cold War. for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
velopment schedules, China’s defense South Korea on one side and China This time, however, communication Delhi on November 22, 2022

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