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OPINION OCTOBER 13, 2023 | The Indian Eye 18

naval vessels like submarines. Hence
the Sevastopol Shipyard is a critical
infrastructure facility supporting the
Russian War effort in the Black Sea.
Apart from the likely destruc-
tion of the vessels and damage to the
dry docks, the attack is indicative of
some larger trends that are emerg-
ing in the maritime theater of the
Ukraine War.
In the initial weeks of the War,
Ukraine’s maritime strike capability
was largely confined to its immediate
coastal waters and Russian warships
operated with impunity on the high
seas. Despite their limited strike ca-
pability, the Ukrainian Navy using
coastal missile batteries and UAVs Possible Damage to Minsk by Ukrainian Missile Strike. Source: pbs.twimg.com
was successful in targeting the Rus-
sian-occupied Snake Island situated
just 19 nautical miles off the coast It must be noted that in the initial systems from these platforms that can of Crimea is heavily reliant on tour-
of Odesa. During this time, the erst- months of the war when the strategi- track movements of Russian ships ism and Russia has heavily invested
while flagship of the Black Sea Fleet cally located Snake Island was under in the Black Sea. Observers have in infrastructure facilities for tourists.
was reportedly struck and sunk by Russia occupation, Ukraine adopted opined that through such attacks, Overall, these developments
Ukrainian anti-ship missiles. the tactic of interdicting the Black the Ukrainian Military has achieved indicate that the battle lines in the
The attacks on Sevastopol and Sea Fleet’s supply chain. Despite its effects beyond just the degradation maritime theatre of the Ukraine war
the Kerch Bridge that began in Octo- then limited strike range, Ukraine of Russian naval capabilities. The have undergone major changes. In
ber 2022 indicated the expansion of began targeting Russian supply ships imminent threat to the Black Sea the coming days and months, Ukraine
Ukraine’s maritime strike capability headed to Snake Island using drones Fleet’s supply chains and commu- could further attempt to scale up its
to Crimea. Following this, the Black and anti-ship missiles. This tactic was nication networks from Ukrainian attack on Crimea. This would make
Sea Fleet began relocating some of successful as it made Russia’s occu- strikes severely undermines Russia’s Sevastopol an unsafe naval base for
its ships and submarines from Sev- pation of Snake Island very difficult ability to protect Crimea. the Black Sea Fleet. In such a scenar-
astopol to the Novorossiysk, situat- and subsequently led to their with- The attack on Sevastopol not io, there is a possibility that the Black
ed on the Russian Mainland.16 But drawal on 30 June 2022. only casts an undermining effect Sea Fleet will be completely relocated
with the recent attacks, it has be- Extensive Ukrainian missile on the capabilities of the Black Sea to Novorossiysk. Due to this, the OTR
come clear that Sevastopol has be- and drone strikes on the Black Sea Fleet but also on the morale of Rus- and supply chains of Russian warships
come even more vulnerable and will Fleet’s infrastructure in Crimea have sian military personnel and civilians and submarines will become over-
most likely force the Russian Navy to already disrupted Russian Ground in Crimea. Sevastopol, being the stretched. This would make the Black
relocate the Black Sea Fleet to No- Lines of Communication (GLOCs). home of the Black Sea Fleet, used Sea Fleet less efficient and more vul-
vorossiysk. However, on 4 August Recently, it was confirmed through to witness elaborate military parades nerable in its naval operations against
2023, the Ukrainian Navy success- satellite imagery that the 744th Com- for Russia’s Navy Day Celebrations Ukraine. Due to this, Russia’s ability
fully attacked even the Novorossi- munications Center of the Black Sea held every July. On the other hand, to dominate the north-western part of
ysk base using USVs and reportedly Fleet in Crimea had been struck by since the Soviet Times, Crimea has the Black Sea will be considerably di-
damaged a Russian Warship. Hence, Ukrainian missile strikes on 20 Sep- been a popular summer destination minished. This will result in Ukraine
Ukrainian Maritime Strike Capabil- tember 2023. Also, in September, for Russian tourists. After Crimea having more secure access to its coasts
ity has consistently expanded, bring- the Ukrainian forces gained control came under Russian control in 2014, and its military will be in a better posi-
ing the war to Russia’s Southern of several offshore oil drilling plat- inflow of tourism exponentially in- tion to challenge Russia’s dominance
coasts as illustrated in Map 1. forms close to Crimea. Ukraine has creased from 5 million in 2015 to 9.4 of the Black Sea.
Since the beginning of the War, claimed that it has captured radar million by 2021. The local economy
Dr R. Vignesh is Research Analyst at
the airspace over Crimea has been the Manohar Parrikar Institute for De-
protected by Russian Air Defence fence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA),
grids consisting of an extensive net- New Delhi
work of S-400 and S-300 missiles.
Due to this, Ukraine’s attacks on the Cmde Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd) is
Crimean Peninsula were predom- Research Fellow at the Manohar Par-
inantly carried out using UAVs and rikar Institute for Defence Studies and
USVs. The ability of these drones to Analyses, New Delhi.
inflict damage upon Russian military Views expressed are of the author and
targets in Crimea was also limited. do not necessarily reflect the views of
But the attack on 13 September 2023 the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
was carried out using cruise missiles Government of India.
that managed to penetrate Russia’s
air defence grid and strike vital tar- The full version of this article first
gets. Earlier on 23 August 2023, appeared in the Comments section of
Ukraine had claimed that it had suc- the website (www.idsa.in) of Manohar
cessfully destroyed an S-400 battery Source: GIS Section, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies
in Crimea and released a video of the and Analyses (MP-IDSA) and Analyses, New Delhi on October
purported attack. 4, 2023

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