Page 14 - The Indian EYE 090525

OPINION SEPTEMBER 05, 2025 | The Indian Eye 14

justify nuclear use, would need to be
defined. Launching an early strike
against a nuclear adversary like In-
dia—armed with a credible and ro-
bust second-strike capability—could
prove disastrous. Waiting too long,
after the destruction of Pakistan’s
conventional forces, would leave its
leadership struggling to justify any
meaningful military objective. Both
scenarios complicate decision-mak-
ing and undermine the credibility of
Pakistan’s deterrence strategy.
Furthermore, if Pakistan decides
to use nuclear weapons, it must spec-
ify the scope and type of deployment.
Its ongoing signals indicate a prefer-
ence for tactical nuclear arms, like
the low-yield Hatf-9/Nasr. Nonethe-
less, many studies highlight the se-
vere consequences of such weapons
in combat. While they might provide
small tactical benefits—such as dis-
rupting or psychologically disturbing
enemy ground forces—their overall Indian leadership has consistently stated that its response to a nuclear attack will not distinguish between tactical or battlefield nuclear use and
military usefulness remains limited.
However, if Pakistan were to use a full-scale strategic strike (File photo)
a battlefield nuclear weapon against
a nuclear-armed adversary such as of nuclear retaliation. Violating this aimed to gain through nuclear pos- ar. Indeed, throughout the history of
India—one with extensive delivery norm could trigger a significant glob- turing. Now, leading Pakistani com- Pakistan’s nuclear weaponization,
systems and high-yield warheads—it al diplomatic backlash against Paki- mentators, including some former the strategic interests of the Western
would essentially give India a license stan, a country already widely seen as diplomats, are realizing that Paki- world, China, and, to some extent,
to pursue the destruction of Pakistan. a hub of terrorism. stan’s past strategy of deterring and West Asian countries have often tak-
While India follows a ‘No First Use’ Yet, Pakistan continues to seek blackmailing India has largely failed. en precedence.
nuclear policy, it explicitly states that to leverage its nuclear status to de- Write-ups in the Pakistani media and While some of these interests
any nuclear first strike will be met ter India and to instill fear—both think tank reports already reflect this persist, the evolving global order
with a massive retaliation intended regionally and globally. Essential- thinking. This quickly becomes the and India’s rising stature within it
to cause unacceptable damage. ly, Islamabad views the display of a dominant perspective, though some are compelling these actors to re-
Indian leadership has consis- nuclear threat as a strategic tool in exceptions will always exist. It is assess and recalibrate their policies
tently stated that its response to a conflict scenarios. Pakistan no longer widely acknowledged in Pakistan that towards a nuclear-armed Pakistan.
nuclear attack will not distinguish be- gains a substantial strategic advan- India can undertake a limited war or At present, Pakistan may retain a
tween tactical or battlefield nuclear tage from its nuclear posturing. India strike without regard for Pakistan’s marginal diplomatic advantage by
use and a full-scale strategic strike. has repeatedly challenged Pakistan’s nuclear bluff. They openly discuss re- projecting itself as an irresponsible
The use of any nuclear weapon—re- nuclear bluff—not only in response viewing this strategy and replacing it nuclear state. India must work pro-
gardless of its yield—will trigger an to the Pahalgam massacre but also with a new, more effective one. The actively to deny Pakistan even that
overwhelming and indiscriminate in earlier cases. Pakistan’s nuclear Pakistani official statements may still limited space, and India ought to be
retaliation. On several occasions, In- threats have failed to prevent India’s deny this stark reality. militarily prepared for the next stage,
dian officials have also warned that measured conventional respons- At one time, Pakistan’s nuclear calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff again
if Pakistan introduces nuclear weap- es, even when they are limited and signaling succeeded in convincing a and managing the influential global

ons into the India –Pakistan conflict, non-escalatory. segment of the international commu- actors more effectively.
it could face consequences so severe For example, on 10 May 2025, nity—particularly in the West—that
that they may threaten the very exis- Pakistan used its familiar tactic by its leadership, influenced by a jihadi
tence of the Pakistani state. unofficially announcing a meeting mindset, might resort to nuclear use. Dr Rajiv Nayan is Senior Research
The collapse of the long-stand- of its National Command Authority. However, the global perception has Associate at Manohar Parrikar
ing global nuclear taboo—if trig- However, the government later offi- gradually shifted. This shift, at this Institute for Defense Studies and
gered by Pakistan’s first use—would cially denied that any such meeting moment, looks silent even though Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi.
not restrict India’s response. Paki- took place. When the suspension of a section in the Western policy He has been working with the Institute
stan’s leadership is highly aware of India’s military operation occurred, community has started coming out since 1993
these risks. While it often engages in some in the strategic community against Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail- Views expressed are of the author and
seemingly irrational nuclear brink- speculated that Pakistan’s nuclear ing tactic. do not necessarily reflect the views of
manship, it does so with deliberate signaling had pressured the world Pakistan and India are now often the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
intent. Historically, whenever India into accepting the truce. Interest- casually grouped as nuclear-armed Government of India.
has responded decisively, Pakistan ingly, Pakistan’s self-defeating move rivals. Notably, Pakistan and the
has toned down its nuclear rhetoric. to violate the suspension agreement United States are also both nuclear This article first appeared in the
Since the atomic bombings of within hours exposed the emptiness powers, yet Pakistan’s nuclear arse- Comments section of the website (www.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, no of its nuclear signaling. India quickly nal does not deter the US from con- idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
nuclear-armed state has used these responded to the breach, undermin- ducting drone strikes on its territory. for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
weapons, even without the threat ing any strategic advantage Pakistan So, the issue is different from nucle- Delhi, on August 27, 2025

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