Page 12 - The Indian EYE 042823

OPINION APRIL 28, 2023 | The Indian Eye 12

France’s Naval Group as compensa- Many prominent US scholars
tion for scrapping the SSK contract.5 have opined that without revising
Also, New Zealand’s stance towards the outdated ITAR, AUKUS cannot
AUKUS has undergone rapid trans- achieve its ambitious goals of co-de-
formation since its announcement. veloping critical technologies like
On 28 March 2023, New Zealand’s SSNs and hypersonic missiles. This is
Defense Minister Andrew Little ex- due to the fact that the ITAR creates
pressed his government’s interest bureaucratic bottlenecks that cause
to collaborate with AUKUS in the months of delay even for the services
non-nuclear domains of quantum of US-manufactured fixed and rota-
computing and AI. ry-wing aircraft operated by the Aus-
The range of developments that tralian military. Hence, it is necessary
took place since the announcement that this outdated regime undergoes
of AUKUS highlight that the scope rapid reforms to enable the transfer
of trilateral security agreement goes of sensitive technologies as envis-
beyond just SSNs. Despite these de- aged by the AUKUS.
velopments, several commentators It is ostensibly for this purpose
flagged looming challenges that lay four Virginia-Class SSNs of the US Our assessment that Australia that US Congress on 22 March 2022
ahead of AUKUS. Among these fac- Navy (USN) and one Astute-Class was bound to receive the proactive passed a bill for ensuring swift and
tors were the limited industrial base SSN of the Royal Navy (RN) are to support of the US Navy throughout seamless technology transfers under
in Australia for the construction of be part of SRF-West that would be the interregnum period till deliv- the AUKUS partnership. The key
SSNs, the inevitable capability gap based in RAN’s naval base HMAS ery of the first SSNs of AUKUS has objective of this bill is to take action
in RAN that will be created with the Stirling located near Perth. The been confirmed. The third phase of and address the bureaucratic hurdles
retirement of its Collin-class SSKs in RAN’s officers and sailors are to gain the San Diego roadmap envisages that may undermine US’s commit-
the early 2030s and the compromis- operational training and experience the construction and delivery first ments to share sensitive technology
ing of Australia’s strategic autonomy. by working alongside the crew of SSN AUKUS by the UK in the late with the UK and Australia. The bill
The San Diego roadmap as- these SSNs. The SRF-West also aims 2030s. The UK has become a lynch- has been described as the first step
sumes great significance as it lays a to bolster deterrence in the Indo-Pa- pin in the AUKUS, with its critical in what is expected to be a lengthy
three-phased pathway for achieving cific through the forward presence of role in designing and developing the effort for overhauling US’s outdat-
AUKUS’s key objective of enabling its SSNs. new class of SSN-AUKUS. Hence ed export control laws. Also, the
the RAN to acquire and operate SSNs. Bridging the Submarine Gap: AUKUS is reflective of London’s re- soon-to-be-released Defense Strate-
These phases can be classified based The second phase of the roadmap newed attempts for a long-term role gic Review (DSR) of the Australian
on their objectives as follows: envisages the sale of three to five in the Indo-Pacific. We had assessed government would provide crucial
Building an Ecosystem for SSNs: Virginia Class SSNs to Australia that through AUKUS, the UK seeks insights into how AUKUS fits into its
Ever since the announcement of pending approval of the US Con- to re-establish its strategic footprint broader security outlook for the In-
AUKUS 18 months back, several gress in the early 2030s. One of the in the east of Suez. do-Pacific.
critics had raised questions on the consistent criticisms of AUKUS However, what has come as The San Diego roadmap heralds
viability of Australia being able to since its announcement in 2021 was a surprise with the San Diego an- a major step forward for the AUKUS
construct and operate SSNs. This that the RAN would be left with no nouncement is the decision to opt for in achieving its key strategic objec-
was on account of Australia’s lack of submarine capability in the interreg- an entirely new class of SSN instead tive of delivering SSN capability to
manpower resources, limited man- num between the decommissioning of existing classes in the navies of the Australia. Although this roadmap
ufacturing capacity and virtually no of the Collin-Class SSKs by the early US and UK. Although this possibility envisages a clear and definite path-
nuclear industry. The first phase of 2030s and the induction of the first was brought forth by some observers way, it does not necessarily insulate
the San Diego roadmap ostensibly AUKUS SSNs by late 2030s. The sec- during the 18-month scoping period, AUKUS from the looming geopo-
addresses this issue. Aimed to help ond phase of the roadmap has there- it was considered highly unlikely. It litical and economic uncertainties in
Australia establish a comprehensive fore been clearly envisaged to serve was largely anticipated that Australia the Indo-Pacific region. Hence for
ecosystem for developing and oper- as a stop-gap measure to support the would be choosing between the Vir- AUKUS to succeed in the currently
ating the SSNs, the first phase has RAN through the 2030s. ginia and Astute class SSNs as both existing bipartition support, econom-
been divided into two distinct stages. Developing Next-Gen SSNs: The are currently in production in the US ic commitments and assurances for
In the first stage commencing 2023 final phase of the roadmap envisages and UK respectively. technical collaborations across the
onwards up until 2027, the Australian the development and delivery of an Although the San Diego road- three countries must endure and pre-
military and civilian personnel are to entirely new class of submarines that map lays down a well-defined path- vail over the uncertainties that this
be integrated within the submarine has been dubbed as SSN-AUKUS. way for delivering SSN capability to long roadmap entails.
industrial bases of the US and UK. This new class of SSNs will officially Australia, it would not be prudent
Through this measure, the three na- replace the UK’s SSNR programme to assume that it will ensure smooth Cmde Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd) is
tions seek to accelerate the necessary for designing the successor to the As- sailing for AUKUS. The most sig- Research Fellow at the Manohar Par-
training of Australian military and tute class. SSN-AUKUS is slated to nificant challenge for the trilateral rikar Institute for Defense Studies and
civilian manpower for building and incorporate both the technologies of grouping in the near future may arise Analyses, New Delhi
operationalizing the SSNs. In order the UK’s SSNR design and the US’s from the US’s Cold War-era export Views expressed are of the author and
to facilitate this, the US Navy (USN) Virginia Class technology to develop control regimes for the transfer of do not necessarily reflect the views of
plans to increase the port visits of its an entirely new generation of SSNs. critical technologies. The most no- the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
SSNs and aims to train RAN’s sub- The first SSN under this class is slat- table among these regimes is the Government of India.
marine personnel onboard during ed to be built at the British shipyard International Trade and Arms Regu-
these visits. in Barrow-in-Furness and will be de- lations (ITAR) enacted in 1976. The This article first appeared in the
In the second stage beginning in livered to Australia in the late 2030s. key objective of ITAR is to ensure Comments section of the website (www.
early 2027, the navies of the US and The subsequent submarines would the non-proliferation of advanced idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
UK are to establish Submarine Rota- be built domestically in Australia in US military technology to actors who for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
tional Force-West (SRF-West). Up to the Adelaide shipyard. are hostile to the US. Delhi on April 20, 2023

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