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OpINION JANUARY 21, 2022 | The Indian Eye 14

views between the executive and the Further, Biden administration has
IRGC which is loyal to the Supreme not only reversed Trump’s anti-Iran
Leader Khamenei means that the efforts, by engaging Tehran to revive
Raisi administration does not have to the JCPOA, it is also encouraging its
fear domestic sabotage as it engages Gulf allies for dialogue with Iran.
Riyadh in a dialogue on contentious In the run up to the resumption
regional issues. Further, dialogue of nuclear talks following Iran’s pres-
with neighbors including Saudi Ara- idential election, US special envoy
bia is seen by Raisi administration as on Iran, Robert Malley visited its
a crucial step towards strengthening Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
economic relations with neighbors allies and Israel. At Riyadh, Mal-
as the long-term strategy to counter ley and political directors of the E3
Western economic sanctions. The (France, Germany, the UK) held di-
GCC countries such as the UAE alogue with GCC states and issued
and Oman are seen by Iran as major joint statement noting that “a return
re-exporting hub for Iranian goods. to mutual compliance with the [nu-
During the last Iranian financial Iran and Qatar have close ties clear deal] would benefit the entire
year (March 2020–2021), Iran–UAE Middle East”. Later, speaking at
trade increased by 7 per cent in val- Manama Dialogue, Malley argued
ue terms at US$ 14.28 billion, Iran’s that Iran’s destabilizing activities—
second biggest trading partner after ballistic missiles, explosive drones
China. and terrorist militias—are not Amer-
ica’s problems, and should be solved
cHanging landscaPe independent of nuclear talks and in
Over the last decade which start- negotiations between Iran and its
ed with Arab uprisings, regional regional opponents. Notably, Mal-
ley’s position was closer to Iran’s own
states seeking regime survival and “principled position” on resolving
geopolitical influence resorted to regional issues through “interaction
direct military interventions, partic- and cooperation”.
ipated in shifting trans-national alli- Previously, in the wake of the
ances, and supported proxy groups signing of the Joint Comprehensive
in other states resulting in the re- Plan of Action in 2015, Rouhani ad-
gionalization of conflict and security ministration had sought to initiate
in West Asia. However, the risks of dialogue with Iran’s Gulf neighbors
tensions leading to a full-scale war, but the policy ran into straits as Iran
fears of overstretch among states The new Iranian president is trying to establish new relationships with its Gulf neighbors and Saudi Arabia found themselves
involved in region’s various conflict on the opposite sides in conflict in
theatres and the overriding domestic tober 2021 targeting Al-Tanf US mil- six years of war. Further, Biden ad- Syria, Yemen and competed for in-
priority of economic concerns amid itary base near Syria’s border cross- ministration’s withdrawal of support fluence in the broader region of
the Covid-19 pandemic seem to have ing with Iraq and Jordan. With war from Saudi-led coalition’s offensive West Asia and North Africa. This
nudged key regional states to seek phase being nearly over in Syria, Da- operations in Yemen means that Ri- time around, the dialogue between
de-escalation and dialogue. mascus is fearful of actions triggering yadh sooner or later will have to find Tehran and Riyadh is happening in
The year 2021 began with the
thawing of Saudi–Emirati relations an unwanted war with Israel and is political solution to the crisis. For its a vastly different regional and inter-
national context favoring continuing
reaching out to its Arab neighbors.
part, Tehran has offered to enable
with Qatar, behind-the-scenes talk With the UAE and Egypt supporting a political solution in Yemen, while de-escalation of tensions. As the fate
between Iran and Saudi Arabia Syria’s integration into Arab world its Houthis allies have kept up pres- of Iran–Saudi diplomacy seems to
began in April in Baghdad, in No- after more than 10 years of isolation, sure on Riyadh by sustained attacks be entwined with that of the nuclear
vember the United Arab Emirates Iran’s focus in Syria is likely to shift on Saudi territory. Riyadh is so far talks in Vienna, Tehran is also keen
(UAE) FM Sheikh Abdulla bin from military to political and eco- holding its breath arguing that it will on presenting itself as a ‘constructive
Zayed visited Syria and Turkey, and nomic relations conducted through judge the Raisi government’s invita- player’ by taking forward its dialogue
in December the UAE National Se- embassies of the two states. tion to diplomacy by the reality on with Riyadh.
curity Advisor Sheikh Tahnoun bin- Following Baghdad Conference the ground.
Zayed Al-Nahyan visited Tehran fol- for Cooperation and Partnership Deepika Saraswat is an
lowing the visit of Iran’s chief nuclear in August 2021, where he protested Associate Fellow at the Manohar Par-
negotiation Ali Bagheri to Dubai just against Syria not being invited to the Us sUPPort for regional rikar Institute for Defense Studies and
before the resumption of nuclear regional forum, he visited Syria. The diPlomacy Analyses, New Delhi
talks in Vienna. These diplomatic focus of Abdollahian’s Syria visit was The ongoing phase of de-es-
exchanges suggest that region’s rivals to enhance the bilateral relations in calation between Iran and its Gulf Views expressed are of the author and
and adversaries are now seeking ave- the face of “economic terrorism” neighbors began in earnest in 2019 do not necessarily reflect the views of
nues to mitigate many conflicts with- or sanctions faced by the two coun- when Iran reeling under Washing- the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
in the region. tries. Similarly, in Yemen, another ton’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign, Government of India.
In November 2021, the com-
mander of IRGC’s advisory forces long-drawn conflict, notwithstand- retaliated by attacking Gulf shipping This is the abridged version of the
and energy infrastructure. The risk of
ing the recent escalation in the two-
article which appeared first in the
in Syria for six years, General Javad year old battle for Marib, Riyadh is direct war with Iran and uncertain- Comment section of the website (www.
Ghaffari returned to Iran. Report- nowhere close to realizing its objec- ties about the US security guarantees idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
edly, Gen Ghaffari’s departure came tive of restoring the government of led key US allies the UAE and Saudi for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
in the wake of drone attacks in Oc-
Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi after Arabia to seek dialogue with Tehran. Delhi on January 9, 2022

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