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OPINION DECEMBER 05, 2025 | The Indian Eye 11

Project 2025 had recommended that
the incoming US administration re-
ject the ratification of the CTBT and
‘indicate a willingness to conduct nu-
clear tests in response to adversary
nuclear developments if necessary’.
It also recommended the restoration
of nuclear infrastructure, including
‘readiness to test nuclear weapons at
the Nevada National Security Site to
ensure the ability of the U.S. to re-
spond quickly to asymmetric technol-
ogy surprises’. Further, the Report
urged the incoming government to
have ‘more than the bare minimum
of nuclear modernization’ and ‘pre-
pare to compete to secure US inter-
ests should arms control efforts con-
tinue to fail’.

TRUMP’S NUCLEAR RHETORIC
AND IMPLICATIONS

irst, according to nuclear ex-
perts, the 2020 Compliance
FReport’s suspicions regarding
nuclear testing by Russia and China
pointed to possible conduct of the If Trump’s rhetoric indeed becomes a reality, it would be a death knell for the arms control architecture (File)
sub-critical tests that do not involve
nuclear fission. The subsequent 2024 any such findings. CTBTO Executive may or may not materialize, satellite matter during his first term, as well
Compliance Report raised suspicions Secretary Robert Floyd stated that imagery and expert analysis reveal as in the nuclear-related contents of
based on previous reports, without the CTBTO’s International Moni- significant expansion of nuclear test- the 2020 and 2024 Compliance re-
adding any new information. The toring System (IMS) ing sites within Russia, China and the ports and the nuclear-related issues
US has been conducting such tests “can and will detect any nuclear US. Satellite images taken in May outlined in the Project 2025 Report.
at the Nevada National Security Site weapon test explosion anywhere on and June 2025 of the Russian nuclear Trump’s justification for the proposed
(NNSS) for years. More importantly, the planet, and has successfully de- testing site at Novaya Zemlya show US nuclear tests fails when examined
the US State Department fact sheet tected all six declared nuclear tests a significant expansion of infrastruc- against evidence supported by the
titled ‘Scope of the Comprehensive conducted this century. Any explo- ture compared to 2021. CTBTO.
Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty’ states that sive nuclear weapon test by any State A high level of activity at the site Trump’s statements have already
sub-critical nuclear testing is permit- would be harmful and destabilizing for suggests that Novaya Zemlya is pre- undermined the nuclear taboo, and if
ted under the CTBT. It notes: global non-proliferation efforts and pared for nuclear tests. In September he goes ahead with tests, it will mark
“Under the CTBT, supercritical for international peace and security.” 2024, Rear Admiral Andrei Sinitsyn, the end of the global arms control
hydro-nuclear tests (which produce a Third, Trump’s statements have head of Russia’s central atomic test architecture. The top three nuclear
self-sustaining fission chain reaction) already eroded the nuclear taboo site at Novaya Zemlya, confirmed powers have already started modern-
are banned by the Treaty, but sub- believed to be in place since the use this in an interview with the Russian izing infrastructure at their respec-
critical hydrodynamic experiments, of the atomic bomb in 1945, which government newspaper Rossiyskaya tive nuclear testing sites, anticipating
which do not produce a self-sustain- restrains the use of nuclear rhetoric Gazeta. a future need to resume nuclear test-
ing fission chain reaction, are permit- as well. Nuclear saber-rattling by the Satellite imagery of Lop Nur ing, which is perhaps the most con-
ted.” custodian of the world’s second-larg- indicates that China has been exca- cerning factor for global peace and
Therefore, while making his est nuclear arsenal leads to rhetorical vating vertical and horizontal tunnels stability.
claims regarding nuclear tests by oth- normalization of escalation, weaken- that could be utilized for future nucle-
ers, Trump has failed to clarify the ing the taboo further. ar tests. Work has been ongoing since Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak is a
nature of the tests by others to justify Fourth, if Trump’s rhetoric in- 2020, and support facilities, including Research Analyst at Manohar Parri-
the US nuclear explosion tests. deed becomes a reality, it would be electrical infrastructure, have been kar Institute for Defense Studies and
Second, Trump’s allegations of a death knell for the arms control established. Similarly, the NNSS in Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. His
Russian and Chinese nuclear tests are architecture. Although the CTBT the US has experienced considerable broad area of interest includes nuclear
not backed by any concrete evidence. has not come into force due to the expansion of underground facilities and security issues of the Indo-Pacific
The Preparatory Commission for the non-ratification of several states, between 2018 and 2023. Thus, it can region
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban it has been followed in spirit by all be inferred that three major nuclear Views expressed are of the author and
Treaty Organization (CTBTO), es- countries, except North Korea. Re- powers are readying infrastructure to do not necessarily reflect the views of
tablished to achieve the aims of the sumption of nuclear testing will trig- conduct future nuclear tests. the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
CTBT, has a strong network of more ger a chain reaction of tests by other Government of India.
than 300 facilities distributed across states, leading to the collapse of the CONCLUSION
the globe to detect any sign of a pos- CTBT. Such a possibility is also ultra lthough Trump’s nuclear This this article first appeared in the
sible nuclear test. Trump’s claims of vires in relation to Article VI of the rhetoric came as a surprise Comments section of the website (www.
nuclear tests by other countries do NPT, which discusses complete nu- Ato the international commu- idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
not pass the scrutiny of the CTBTO, clear disarmament. nity, signs of his intentions were evi- for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
as the Organization has not produced Fifth, while Trump’s rhetoric dent throughout his opinions on this Delhi, on November 27, 2025

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