Page 5 - The Indian EYE 081525

COVER STORY AUGUST 08, 2025 | The Indian Eye 5

OPPOSITION’S MIXED Beijing or Moscow. But with Modi
preparing to meet both Xi Jinping
MESSAGES and Putin in the coming months, and
with BRICS exploring non-dollar
rump’s tariff escalation has trade settlements, the risk of acceler-
also created unexpected po-
Tlitical alignments. While op- ated strategic drift is real.
If Trump’s strategy is to pressure
position leaders remain critical of Modi through domestic opinion, ear-
Modi, several have aimed their fire ly signs suggest it is misfiring. The
at Washington. Prime Minister’s defiant stance plays
Shashi Tharoor argued India
should “match” the U.S. tariffs, rais- well with his core narrative of nation-
al strength and sovereignty. Fram-
ing duties on American goods to ing the tariffs as an attack on Indian
50%. “It is not that any country can farmers resonates in both rural and
threaten us like this,” he said, mak- urban constituencies.
ing a sovereignty-based argument Even some opposition critiques
that resonates beyond party lines. of Trump — though often coupled
Independent MP Pappu Yadav
went further, warning of a “col- with attacks on Modi — reinforce
the perception that the U.S. move is
lapse” in India’s pharmaceutical overreach. This shared indignation
exports and urging Modi to stop ge- PM Modi and US President Donald Trump at their last meeting in Washington, DC in February (ANI) limits Trump’s ability to exploit In-
neric medicine supplies to the U.S. dia’s political divisions.
entirely. ECONOMIC STAKES tariffs on U.S. goods are about 17%
Others, like Congress MP Kar- — a figure Tharoor and others sug-
ti Chidambaram, saw the tariffs as he immediate economic fallout gest could be weaponised in retalia- POSSIBLE OFF-RAMPS
proof that Modi’s much-touted “spe- is clear: higher costs for Indian tion. This hints at the possibility of a oth sides have tools to de-es-
cial relationship” with Trump never Tgoods in the U.S. market and full-blown trade war, something both calate. The U.S. order allows
existed. Rahul Gandhi, meanwhile, pressure on key export sectors like economies can ill afford but neither Bfor modifications “depending
claimed Modi’s “hands are tied” due pharmaceuticals, textiles, and engi- side currently rules out. on changing geopolitical circumstanc-
to alleged links between his govern- neering goods. Tharoor’s warning es” — leaving room for rollback if
ment, industrialists like Adani, and about the $90 billion bilateral trade STRATEGIC RISK FOR TRUMP India makes gestures on oil imports
Russian oil deals — a charge the BJP volume underscores the risk of a mu- or trade concessions in less sensitive
has dismissed as political theatre. tually damaging spiral. rump’s political calculus is sectors.
Yet India’s calculus is strategic. risky. The U.S.–India rela- India, for its part, could use retal-
WASHINGTON’S Oil imports from Russia have become Ttionship has, for two decades, iatory tariffs as bargaining chips rath-
a critical pillar of its energy security, been nurtured as a bipartisan stra-
BALANCING ACT especially after discounts following tegic priority in Washington, framed er than blunt instruments, targeting
the Ukraine war. New Delhi insists as a counterbalance to China’s rise. politically sensitive U.S. exports with-
or the Biden-era State Depart- purchases are “based on market fac- Even amid disputes over visas, de- out closing the door to negotiation.
ment, this dispute would have Diplomatic backchannels — which
Ftriggered diplomatic firefight- tors” and designed to meet the needs fence procurement, and WTO cases, Chidambaram claims are absent —
of 1.4 billion citizens. The Ministry of the trajectory has been toward deeper
ing. Under Trump, the approach External Affairs has called the U.S. alignment. could still revive talks if both capitals
is more confrontational — but still tariffs “unfair, unjustified and unrea- By turning a core strategic part- see value in preserving the strategic
tempered by the language of part- sonable,” vowing to take “all actions ner into a tariff target, Trump is bet- partnership.
nership. necessary to protect national inter- ting that economic pain will force At stake is more than trade.
“India is a strategic partner,” U.S.–India relations are a central
political concessions from Modi —
State Department spokesperson ests.” In trade terms, India’s average without triggering a pivot toward pillar of Washington’s Indo-Pacific
Tommy Pigott told reporters, prom- strategy and a key element of New
ising “full and frank dialogue” de- Delhi’s multi-alignment doctrine. A
spite the tensions. In Washington’s prolonged tariff war would not only
framing, the tariffs are leverage, not damage economic ties but also erode
a break. Yet Trump has also warned trust, making cooperation on de-
that other BRICS members — in- fence, technology, and regional secu-
cluding China — could face simi- rity harder to sustain.
lar measures if they “align with an- Trump’s gamble assumes Modi
ti-American policies.” will bend. Modi’s response suggests
That threat comes as BRICS co- he is prepared to absorb short-term
hesion is already being tested. Mo- economic costs to protect core politi-
di’s upcoming visit to China for the cal and strategic interests — and that
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation the Indian public, for now, is pre-
summit will be his first in over sev- pared to back him.
en years. Russian President Vladimir Whether this standoff becomes
Putin is also expected in New Delhi a temporary flare-up or a defining
later this year, with strategic and de- rupture will depend on how deftly
fence ties high on the agenda. both leaders can navigate the months
Trump’s tariff strike could, un- ahead. With U.S. elections looming
intentionally, push India closer to A group of farmers from Tamil Nadu meets Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in New Delhi on and India deep in its own political
its BRICS partners at a time when Thursday (@narendramodi X/ANI Photo) cycle, the space for compromise is
Washington wants the opposite. shrinking even as the stakes grow.

www.TheIndianEYE.com