Page 11 - The Indian EYE 050126

OPINION MAY 01, 2026 | The Indian Eye 11

self-reliant. The development of off-
shore oilfields over time could boost
the Cuban economy and national
prosperity, making Cuba a signifi-
cant player in the region’s petroin-
dustry, although possibly at the cost
of economic diversification.
Amidst the downplayed oil di-
mension in Venezuela and Iran
adventures, President Trump’s at-
tention on Cuba as well as the US
companies’ interest in exploration
of its oilfields converge at a point
where the country needs to be
opened up for exploration. President
Obama took a few steps towards
engagement, but President Trump
has a different way of achieving his
goals. The oil potential of Cuba fits
into his long-term scheme of Making
America Great Again (MAGA), for
which dominating the global energy
market, along with the geopolitics of
the Western Hemisphere, is an im-
portant condition.
Industry experts do not expect
any global disruption due to the
availability of Cuban oil in future,
and the realization of the estimated
potential may not impact the global President Trump’s conflict with countries that posed no immediate or imminent military threat to the US should at least be explained
prices in general. But Cuba shall be by economic logic and motivation (File photo)
energy self-reliant with the realiza-
tion of even the lower end of the es-
timates. Further, the country’s tran- tives rather than economic ones, the the stated strategic objectives are tion is further highlighted by Pres-
sition to being a net oil exporter will correlation with oil has received little achieved through regime change. ident Trump’s statements and ex-
have a positive impact on its econo- attention from analysts, who focus US involvement in oil exploration ecutive order regarding his energy
my, leading to the failure of the long- only on the country’s current proven and production in Cuba could be a policy. The US–Israel–Iran war has
term US sanctions policy against reserves and production capacity. viable option for the communist Cu- not yet concluded, and the outcomes
Cuba. Hence, it is imperative from The US military actions and ob- ban government as well, but it can- may not be as the US expected, but
the US perspective to keep Cuba jectives on Venezuela and Iran are not happen without the US securing oil could be a benefit in all the three.
energy-starved until the geopolitical being shaped from a long-term Trum- guarantees to protect its stated stra- The endgames of the US aggression
and economic positions of the two pian economic and strategic perspec- tegic interests in the country. Presi- against Venezuela, Iran and Cuba
countries are aligned. The alignment tive, and Cuba is no exception. The dent Trump had already indicated may focus on long-term deals that
is possible either with regime change exploration and development of oil the possibility of a deal between the include oil benefits.
in Cuba or a paradigm shift in the fields in these countries may take two countries without an invasion, The focus on the nuclear ma-
US policy to engage the country with around a decade or more and re- referring to a takeover in “some terial issue might be more useful
its political system intact. President quire heavy investment. Cuba, with form”. Any deal, however, would for legitimizing the catastrophe un-
Obama’s efforts to engage and relax its oil potential, is also among the top depend on the Cuban government’s leashed. But, from the perspective of
sanctions on Cuba faced tough resis- global producers of Cobalt and Nick- willingness to shed its ideological Trumpian MAGA priorities, the suc-
tance, especially by migrant Cubans el (critical metals for electric vehicle opposition to the US government. cess, rationale, wisdom and the eco-
who have a grudge against the Com- battery production) that may be im- Apart from the US desire to detach nomics of these military adventures
munist regime. portant to a futuristic US foreign pol- Cuba from China, Russia and other would remain highly questionable in
President Trump, however, in icy. But, President Trump has already unfriendly states in the region, oil ex- the absence of any energy/oil deals.
the new geopolitical context of in- ‘debunked’ US policy supporting and ploration could be another lucrative
creasing influence of China and promoting electric vehicles by pri- potential benefit for the Trump Ad- Dr. Saurabh Mishra is a Research
Russia in the Latin American Re- oritizing oil and gas over green and ministration. Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Insti-
gion, wants to decisively change the renewable energy sources. Hence, oil President Trump’s conflict with tute for Defence Studies and Analyses
long-maintained status quo to ben- has emerged as a clear priority in his countries that posed no immedi- (MP-IDSA)
efit the US through regime change. calculations for engaging or targeting ate or imminent military threat to Views expressed are of the author and
His rhetoric on Cuba is explained by countries to achieve his strategic and the US should at least be explained do not necessarily reflect the views of
the convergence of his strategic vi- foreign policy goals. In the context of by economic logic and motivation. the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
sions of securing the Western Hemi- Cuba, too, potential oil fields have to Any conflict initiated for any reason Government of India.
sphere for the US by driving China be given greater weight than renew- ultimately has its economic end-
and Russia out, and of dominating ables and critical minerals to under- game. And, as we examine here, The full version of this article first ap-
the global energy market. As Pres- stand the Trumpian economic and oil fits in as the variable correlating peared in the Comments section of the
ident Trump’s actions in Cuba are strategic calculus. to Trump’s aggression and military website (www.idsa.in) of Manohar Par-
being analyzed more from strategic The oil potential of Cuba would threat against Venezuela, Iran and rikar Institute for Defense Studies and
and high-level geopolitical perspec- be an unsaid benefit for the US if Cuba. The presence of the correla- Analyses, New Delhi, on April 22, 2026

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