Page 11 - The Indian EYE 042624

OPINION APRIL 26, 2024 | The Indian Eye 11

and, by extension, the global econom-
ic stability. For instance, Brent Crude
prices shot up to $ 91.71 on 12 April
when Iran captured a container ship
near the Strait of Hormuz and de-
clared that it would attack Israel and
fell down to $ 89.24 on 15 April, after
Israel and its partners repelled the at-
tacks.
The Iranian regime’s calculated
response to the embassy bombing,
therefore, must be viewed through the
prism of its domestic political strate-
gy, aimed at maintaining its grip on
power amidst a tumultuous internal
and external landscape. This strate-
gic posture reflects a broader pattern
in Iranian foreign policy: leveraging
military engagements as a tool for
domestic political maneuvering, all
the while navigating the precarious
balance of regional power dynamics
and the risks of broader conflict esca-
lation.

ISRAEL’S RESPONSE AND THE Israel stands at a critical crossroads, where strategic patience and restraint are juxtaposed against the compelling
ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES impulse for retributive action (Agency photo)

hile the United States Pres-
ident has reiterated his tition with Beijing.
W“ironclad commitment to Firstly, Israel is acutely aware of compelling impulse for retributive ac-
Third, is the potential influence of
security of Israel”, he has also advised the complexities and challenges of en- the Jewish lobby in the US, an import- tion. The considerations are manifold,
encompassing the immediate threats
gaging in military conflicts on multiple
Israel to de-escalate as both countries fronts. Iran’s significant influence and ant factor at any time especially given posed by Iran’s network in Lebanon
are now “even”. Israel is at a junc- network within Lebanon, primarily upcoming elections. The US secretary and Syria, the broader regional risks
ture where it can escalate or choose through Hezbollah, and its presence of state, Antony Blinken had a meet- of escalation, and the global geopolit-
not to. One immediate consideration in Syria, pose a considerable threat to ing with various Jewish groups, where ical shifts, notably the United States’
is the potential escalation of military Israel’s northern border. Escalating he told the representatives that the strategic pivot towards the Indo-Pa-
actions. Given the scale of the attack tensions with Iran could activate these US did not want Israel to “escalate” cific region and its implications for
and the demonstrated capability to proxies, drawing Israel into a mul- after the attack. While all the repre- American engagement in the Middle
intercept a vast majority of the incom- tifaceted conflict that would stretch sentatives thanked the US for the ‘de- East. These factors collectively sug-
ing threats, Israel might opt to rein- its military resources and potentially fence of Israel’, Blinken’s stand was gest a path of cautious engagement
force its deterrence posture against put civilian populations at risk. The supported by the liberal lobbies, but and strategic de-escalation for Israel,
Iran. As Iran has directly attacked historical context of conflicts in these some centrist and right-wing lobbies mindful of the complex interplay of
Israel, it has crossed a threshold and areas demonstrates the high costs and called on the US to “support whatever internal security needs, regional sta-
Israel would be thinking that if it does complexities of such engagements, decision Israel takes”. These overall bility, and international diplomacy.
not respond to Iran’s attacks it might making a focused approach on de-es- considerations are likely to influence As the dust settles on this latest
become a new normal. Israel’s policy calation and containment a prudent an Israeli decision to respond. episode of confrontation, the path
of deterrence has consistently been strategy for Israel. forward demands a judicious mix
a focal point among the nation’s po- Second, the United States, Israel’s CONCLUSION of diplomatic engagement, military
litical and military elite, considered key strategic ally, has been recalibrat- readiness, and strategic patience.
a crucial component of its defense n conclusion, the escalation on The international community’s col-
strategy. This approach encompasses ing its foreign policy priorities, with a April 14, 2024, between Iran lective response, emphasizing diplo-
military tactics such as retaliating to notable pivot towards addressing the Iand Israel, marks a significant macy over military escalation, offers a
past assaults and sustaining military rise of China. The U.S. is increasingly moment in the complex tapestry of hopeful avenue towards de-escalating
readiness, as well as the utilization of concerned with the strategic competi- Middle Eastern geopolitics. Iran’s tensions and fostering a more stable
both soft and hard power to convince tion in the Indo-Pacific region, aiming assertive military action and Israel’s and secure Middle East. Ultimately,
adversaries that launching any attack to counterbalance China’s growing calibrated defensive response under- the events of April 14, 2024, serve as
would be futile. This could involve economic and military influence. This score the delicate balance of power, a poignant reminder of the intercon-
targeted strikes against Iranian mil- pivot signifies a desire by the U.S. to regional influence, and international nectedness of regional conflicts and
itary assets or proxies in the region, avoid being entangled in protracted diplomacy that defines the region. As the importance of collective efforts
aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to conflicts in the Middle East, which both nations navigate the aftermath towards securing peace and stability
launch similar attacks in the future. could divert attention and resources of this confrontation, the broader in an increasingly complex and inter-
Such actions would likely be calibrat- from the Indo-Pacific theater. The implications for regional stability, in- connected world.
ed to send a clear message of strength U.S. administration’s caution towards ternational alliances, and global eco-
without necessarily provoking a full- escalation in the Middle East is likely nomic health loom large. This article first appeared
scale conflict. However, while Israel influenced by this broader strategic Israel stands at a critical cross- on the website (www.claws.in) of Centre
would be tempted to retaliate, there framework, as Washington seeks to roads, where strategic patience and for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi,
are factors that needs consideration. maintain focus on long-term compe- restraint are juxtaposed against the on April 18, 2024

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