Page 12 - The Indian EYE 031723

OPINION MARCH 17, 2023 | The Indian Eye 12

START. The Treaty puts a ceiling of
1,550 deployable warheads on the
delivery vehicles. Moreover, both
sides have a large number of tactical
nuclear weapons. Quite significantly,
many have been forecasting the use
of tactical nuclear weapons against
Ukraine for a long period. Fortu-
nately, as of today, the prophets of
doom have been proved wrong.
There was a general belief
among arms control watchers that
the suspension of inspections would
remain so either till Russia lifts the
suspension or till the Treaty expires
in 2026. Practically, the inspections
under New START were paused
since the COVID-19 pandemic peri-
od by mutual consent. Moscow and
Washington have failed to resume
inspections to this date.
Instead, the US accused Russia
of non-compliance with the Treaty
vis-à-vis provisions of the inspection
and convening of the Bilateral Con-
sultative Commission, a mechanism
to resolve Treaty-specific issues.
With the suspension of the Treaty, 18
agreed annual inspections under the The suspension of the New START treaty has nothing to do with rights and obligations of the parties to conduct nuclear tests (File photo)
provision of New START would not
occur soon. Thus, the Russian an- and the US may have to come out of ons, the suspension of the Treaty has negotiations when China’s increasing
nouncement might be a pressure tac- the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty set the clock back. If the parties can- nuclear warheads are contributing to
tic on Moscow’s part to persuade the (CTBT) and other related treaties. not implement the existing Treaty, it the arms race every passing day.
US vis-à-vis implementation of the In the statement, Putin clarified that is difficult for the world to expect a The Russian decision can be
Treaty in its entirety, though Russia Russia was prepared to test after the broader treaty from the US and Rus- described as symbolic and strategic
has not explicitly put it as a pre-con- US conducted a nuclear test. The US sia which has more than 90 per cent in nature. It wants to pressurize the
dition for ending the suspension. has not indicated any intentions to of the nuclear stockpile. West by sending an ambiguous mes-
The Treaty provisions mandate start testing. So, the world might not Two, the Treaty cannot be di- sage strategically. In the entire epi-
exchange of data regarding deployed witness nuclear tests in the coming vorced from the geopolitical reali- sode, Russia has tried not to appear
intercontinental ballistic missiles weeks or months. ties of the day. The Ukraine conflict aggressive and has attempted to put
(ICBMs), submarine-launched bal- has eroded trust between the Treaty all the blame on the US. Considering
listic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy Conclusion parties, which has negatively colored the pessimist environment, the sus-
bombers, along with warheads on The suspension of the Treaty the current crisis. The New START pension of the Treaty may not seem
them. It also seeks data on deployed has established at least two reali- is widely considered the last surviving shocking or startling. Still, it is cer-
and non-deployed launchers of ties. One, while the follow-up treaty arms control pact. Putin’s announce- tainly unfortunate for arms control
ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers. to the New START was expected to ment, for sure, has complicated dip- efforts, which had never prepared
Both countries complied with the include new types of strategic weap- lomatic efforts to revive arms control even rudimentary grounds for future
provision till 2021. disarmament talks.
So far, the two sides have ex-
changed thousands of notices about Dr Rajiv Nayan is Senior Research
Associate at the Manohar Parrikar
the number of warheads. But halt Institute for Defence Studies and
in the implementation of the Trea- Analyses, New Delhi. Click here for
ty might affect the mutual exchange detailed profile.
of data. Moscow has declared that
it would observe quantitative limits Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak is a
of the warheads as per the Treaty Research Analyst at Manohar Parrikar
during the pause period. However, it Institute for Defence Studies and Anal-
is debatable how the mechanical ex- yses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi.
change of data, bereft of inspection, Views expressed are of the author and
in an uncertain environment, will be do not necessarily reflect the views of
credible and satisfy both parties. the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
The suspension of the New
START treaty has nothing to do with Government of India.
rights and obligations of the parties This article first appeared in the
to conduct nuclear tests. The Trea- The Treaty provisions mandate exchange of data regarding deployed Comments section of the website (www.
ty has no provision for banning and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
suspending nuclear tests. For the and heavy bombers, along with warheads on them (File photo) for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
resumption of nuclear tests, Russia Delhi on March 2, 2023

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