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    BUSINESS & TRADE                                                    OCTOBER 31, 2025       |  The Indian Eye 34

                        India’s Growth Story Holds Steady: GDP

                Outlook Brightens Despite Global Headwinds

                 With the Reserve Bank of India and Deloitte both revising growth projections upward, the Indian
             economy continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience amid global uncertainty and trade turbulence

            OUR BUREAU
            Mumbai / New Delhi
                  ven as the world economy grapples with geo-
                  political  instability,  slowing  trade,  and  per-
            Esistent inflationary pressures, India’s growth
            trajectory continues to stand out. In its latest State
            of the Economy article published in the October
            2025 Bulletin, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
            underscored that the country’s macroeconomic
            fundamentals remain solid, enabling it to navigate
            global  headwinds  with  confidence.  The  central
            bank’s assessment was echoed by Deloitte India,
            which has raised its GDP forecast for FY2025-26
            by  30  basis  points  to  6.8  percent,  reflecting  opti-
            mism that India’s recovery momentum will sustain
            through the year.
                The RBI report highlighted that India’s resil-
            ience stems from the robustness of its underlying
            macroeconomic structure—low inflation, healthy
            corporate and banking balance sheets, strong for-
            eign exchange reserves, and a credible monetary
            and  fiscal  policy  framework.  “While  the  Indian   Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a conversation with RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra during the Global Fintech Fest
            economy is not immune to global headwinds, it has
            so far exhibited resilience,” the RBI noted, adding                          in Mumbai recently (ANI file photo)
            that durable fundamentals have anchored growth
            even as advanced economies face rising fiscal risks   ing reforms such as GST 2.0, which is expected to   India has consistently outperformed major global
            and protectionist pressures.                  further streamline the tax regime. A strong rural   economies, posting growth rates of 9.2 percent in
                Nonetheless, the RBI maintained an opti-  confidence index—hovering above 100—suggests   2023-24, 6.5 percent in 2024-25, and an estimated
            mistic  tone,  emphasizing  that  structural  reforms   buoyant sentiment in rural areas, bolstered by fa-  7.8 percent in the first quarter of FY2025-26.
            and domestic demand have shielded the economy   vorable monsoon patterns and improved crop out-  According to the Economic Survey 2024-25,
            from external shocks. “The need for economic   put.                                        the GDP growth projection for 2025-26 was set
            resilience has become a key priority,” the bulle-  The firm also noted that the upcoming festive   between 6.3 and 6.8 percent, and current data sug-
            tin said, pointing to India’s foreign exchange re-  season  could  provide  a  significant  boost  to  con-  gests that the economy is tracking the upper end of
            serves—adequate to cover more than 11 months of   sumption spending, while corporate investment is   that range. The RBI’s latest assessment reinforces
            imports and nearly 93 percent of external debt as   likely to accelerate as businesses gear up to meet   this view, projecting FY2025-26 GDP growth at
            of June 2025—as a vital cushion against volatility.  growing demand.                       6.8 percent while maintaining inflation at a com-
                Deloitte India’s latest outlook aligns closely   Despite the upbeat projections, both the RBI   fortable 2.6 percent—well within its target band.
            with the RBI’s cautious optimism. The consultan-  and Deloitte caution that India’s growth remains   For policymakers, the challenge will be to sus-
            cy raised its GDP growth projection for FY2025-  vulnerable to global shocks. Escalating trade ten-  tain this momentum while navigating an increas-
            26 to 6.8 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from   sions, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical   ingly uncertain global landscape. Strengthening
            its earlier estimate, citing strong domestic demand,  frictions could undermine export performance.   supply chains, diversifying export markets, and
            improving rural sentiment, and low inflation as pri-  Deloitte  warned  that  India’s  inability  to  finalize   accelerating infrastructure investments will be key
            mary drivers. India’s GDP had already grown by   key trade agreements with the United States and   to  maintaining  growth  above  6.5  percent  in  the
            an impressive 7.8 percent in the April-June quar-  the European Union could dampen investor senti-  medium term.
            ter—well above market expectations—providing a   ment and slow capital inflows.               At the same time, continued fiscal discipline
            strong base for the remainder of the fiscal year.  “India is no island,” Majumdar observed.   and monetary prudence will be essential to pre-
               “India’s performance signals not just resilience  “Global risks will inevitably weigh on its econom-  serve  investor  confidence  and  macroeconomic
            but a renewed sense of strength,” said Rumki   ic  outlook.”  While  headline  inflation  has  eased   stability.
            Majumdar, economist at Deloitte India. “Similar   due to lower food and fuel prices, core inflation   The twin assessments from the RBI and De-
            growth rates are expected in the subsequent year,  remains stubbornly above 4 percent—posing chal-  loitte present a cautiously optimistic picture of In-
            although uncertainties around trade and invest-  lenges for the RBI’s monetary policy stance.  dia’s economy—one that is grounded in reality yet
            ment could widen the range of variation.”        India’s economic resilience is not accidental—  confident in its trajectory. With steady domestic de-
                Deloitte attributes the optimistic forecast to a   it is the outcome of a sustained focus on macro-  mand, robust policy support, and a resilient finan-
            combination of factors: robust consumer spending,  economic stability, prudent  policy  management,   cial system, India remains poised to retain its posi-
            accommodative monetary conditions, and ongo-  and structural reform. Over the past four years,   tion as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

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