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    OPINION                                                                   MAY 02, 2025     |  The Indian Eye 10

            vinced Beijing that this approach is                                                                  comprising about 20 per cent of the
            no longer viable. According to data                                                                   global LNG trade. Given this stra-
            from Pakistan’s National Counter                                                                      tegic  significance,  any  increase  in
            Terrorism Authority (NACTA), be-                                                                      Chinese security or military presence
            tween 2021 and 2024, a total of 20                                                                    in the area could substantially alter
            Chinese citizens have been killed and                                                                 maritime security dynamics. Such
            34 injured in 14 terrorist attacks tar-                                                               developments are likely to influence
            geting Chinese interests.                                                                             regional alignments involving Gulf
                                                                                                                  states and Western naval powers,
                PERSISTENT SECURITY                                                                               with  potential  ramifications  for  in-
                        LAPSES                                                                                    ternational trade routes and broader
                                                                                                                  geopolitical stability.
            D      espite public displays of ca-                                                                           CONCLUSION
                   maraderie,
                              China–Pakistan
                   relations are facing growing
                                                                                                                      Pakistan faces the challenge of
            undercurrents of strain, largely fu-                                                                  balancing its sovereignty with the
            elled by persistent security lapses   Despite public displays of camaraderie, China–Pakistan relations are facing growing undercur-  imperative of securing Chinese in-
            on Pakistani soil. The situation has   rents of strain, largely fuelled by persistent security lapses on Pakistani soil (Agency file photo)  vestments that it perceives as being
            worsened in the aftermath of the                                                                      vital for its economic development.
            US withdrawal from Afghanistan,                                                                       Allowing foreign security entities to
            which unleashed a new wave of mil-  and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),   bration of Beijing’s strategic posture.   operate within its borders risks un-
            itant activity in the region. At the   which has repeatedly and successful-  More importantly, it raises  urgent   dermining Islamabad’s control over
            same time, the BLA has openly op-  ly  targeted  Chinese  personnel  and   questions about the possibility of Pa-  internal security affairs.
            posed Chinese investments, viewing   infrastructure. The TTP has target-  kistan’s eroding decision-making ca-  This is not a new situation for
            them as an extension of Islamabad’s   ed Dasu Hydropower Project twice.   pacity, growing dependency, and its   Pakistan. It experienced a similar
            longstanding exploitation of Baloch-  These failures have underscored the   capacity to maintain control over its   phase with the US, when American
            istan and its natural resources. This   systemic vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s   own security landscape.  private contractors operated freely
            perception has fuelled repeated and   internal security framework and                                 within the country, compromising
            deadly attacks on Chinese personnel   prompted China to press for a more   REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS      both  sovereignty  and public  safety.
            and strategic infrastructure linked to   direct role.                                                 The  situation  reached  a  flashpoint
            the CPEC.                             The latest news of Islamabad        hina’s expanding security pres-  in January 2011 with the arrest of
                Thus, Beijing’s confidence in Is-  allowing Chinese security personnel   ence in Pakistan, particularly
            lamabad’s ability to secure its inter-  marks a departure  from Pakistan’s  Cthrough PSCs, is introducing   Raymond Davis, a CIA contractor
                                                                                                                  involved in the fatal shooting of two
            ests is waning. In 2024 alone, nine   existing legal norms (since 2012)   new layers of strategic complexity in   Pakistani  nationals  in  Lahore.  The
            Chinese nationals were killed in   which prohibit foreign PSCs from   South Asia. Should the number of   incident triggered widespread public
            separate attacks across Pakistan—  operating independently and man-  Chinese  security  personnel  increase   outrage  and  raised  questions  about
            including  high-profile  assaults  on   date that only local personnel be em-  at additional CPEC sites, regional   foreign  overreach,  leading  to  a  re-
            critical sites such as the Dasu Hy-  ployed  if  such  firms  are  permitted.   concerns are likely to intensify. Of   strictive ban on foreign PSCs. How-
            dropower Project and Karachi’s Jin-  This move reflects Beijing’s growing   particular note is the fact that the   ever, foreign PSCs continue to oper-
            nah  International  Airport.  These   impatience with Islamabad’s inability   CPEC passes through Pakistan’s il-  ate illegally within Pakistan.
            incidents have prompted serious re-  to deliver on promises. Much of this   legally occupied regions of Jammu   A similar scenario could play
            assessments within Chinese strategic   is rooted in Pakistan’s longstanding   and Kashmir—territory claimed by   out again—this time with China.
            circles, with growing concern over   policy of tolerating or supporting   India—and culminates at the stra-  Anti-China sentiment is already
            Pakistan’s reliability as a security   militant groups for strategic lever-  tegic Gwadar Port near the Strait of   simmering, particularly in insurgen-
            provider to Chinese nationals.    age, particularly in Afghanistan and   Hormuz. The deployment of Chinese   cy-prone regions like Balochistan,
                In response to Beijing’s mount-  Kashmir. Many of these groups have   PSCs  in  these  sensitive  areas  may
            ing concerns, Islamabad revamped   since splintered or radicalised, redi-  heighten regional tensions.  where foreign involvement is often
                                                                                                                  viewed with deep suspicion. An ex-
            its  counter-terrorism  posture  and,   recting their violence inward and de-  Strategically, the presence of   panded Chinese security presence
            in June 2024, launched Azm-e-Iste-  stabilising Pakistan itself.    Chinese PSCs near critical maritime   may inadvertently lend weight to
            hkam (translated as ‘Commitment       China’s increasing involvement   chokepoints such as the Gwadar   separatist narratives, fuelling unrest
            to  Stability’).  This marked a new   in intelligence and domestic security   Port also raises significant concerns.   rather than alleviating it.
            phase following the earlier cam-  operations within Pakistan signals a   Gwadar’s proximity to the Strait of
            paign  Radd-ul-Fasaad  (‘Rejection   deeper mistrust. For instance, in the   Hormuz—a crucial artery for global   Views expressed are of the author and
            of Strife’), which ran from 2017 to   2021 attack on Dasu Hydropower   energy supplies—amplifies these ap-  do not necessarily reflect the views of
            2024. Since 2016, the Pakistani mil-  Project, Pakistani government sourc-  prehensions. In 2022, approximately   the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
            itary has also created specialised se-  es had initially attributed this to an   21 million barrels of oil per day tran-  Government of India.
            curity formations—namely the 34th   accident, with Beijing pointing out a   sited through the strait, accounting   Namita Barthwal is a Research Analyst
            and 44th Light Infantry Divisions—  few hours later that it was, in fact, a   for around 21 per cent of global pe-  at the Military Affairs Centre of the
            tasked with protecting CPEC proj-  terror case. Such direct interference   troleum liquids consumption. This   Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence
            ects. These units, supported by the   reveals not only the fragility of Paki-  figure represents nearly 30 per cent   Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA),
            local police, are mandated to provide   stan’s internal governance but also   of the world’s seaborne oil trade,   where her research focuses on Chi-
            route security,  gather intelligence   the shrinking space for sovereign de-  with 70 per cent of these exports   na-Pakistan military cooperation.
            and ensure rapid response to emerg-  cision-making.                 bound for Asian markets.
            ing threats.                          In 2024, multiple rounds of       Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz   This article first appeared in the Com-
                Despite these measures, Paki-  high-level discussions eventually led   is a vital corridor for liquefied natu-  ments section of articles section of the
            stan’s security apparatus has strug-  to Islamabad acquiescing to allow a   ral gas (LNG) shipments. All LNG   website (www.idsa.in) of Manohar Par-
            gled to contain the threat, particular-  Chinese security footprint on Paki-  exports from Qatar and the Unit-  rikar Institute for Defence Studies and
            ly from the BLA’s, Majeed Brigade   stani  soil.  This  represents  a  recali-  ed Arab Emirates pass through it,   Analyses, New Delhi, on April 19, 2025

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