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    Op-Ed                                                              FEBRUARY 27, 2026       |  The Indian Eye 12

                                                            INDIAN INTEREST

                WE ARE IN THE TWILIGHT OF

                      THE RULES-BASED ORDER

             As Washington reassures, Beijing courts, and Delhi recalibrates, the world stumbles into a messy multipolar transition.

                                                                                                                  ton, continues to anchor itself in the
                                                                                                                  Atlantic alliance even as it explores
                                                                                                                  “strategic autonomy.”
                                                                                                                      This is the paradox of our time:
                                                                                                                  a system widely acknowledged as ex-
                                                                                                                  hausted is still powerful enough to re-
                                                                                                                  sist displacement.
                                                                                                                      At the same time, the “rules-
                                                                                                                  based order” — long invoked as  a
                                                                                                                  moral framework — is visibly eroding.
                                                                                                                  Western allies now openly declare that
                                                                                                                  the era of US-backed global security
                     SHOBHAN SAXENA                                                                               and rules is over. Sanctions regimes
                                                                                                                  proliferate but are selectively applied.
                  he  old  world  order  is  not  col-                                                            International law is cited fervently in
                  lapsing in one dramatic mo-                                                                     some  conflicts  and  muted  in  others.
            Tment. It is fraying in full public                                                                   The credibility gap has widened.
            view.                                                                                                     For many in the Global South,
                In Mumbai this week, India’s Ex-                                                                  this is less a sudden crisis than a de-
            ternal Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar                                                                 layed reckoning. The rules, they ar-
            offered  a  characteristically  unsenti-                                                              gue, were never entirely neutral. In-
            mental diagnosis. The global system,                                                                  stitutions reflected power hierarchies
            he said, is entering a “messy” and                                                                    frozen in 1945. Calls for reform of the
            “unpredictable” transitional phase.                                                                   UN Security Council, the IMF, and
            “The established global order is clearly   matic partner rather than a systemic   curity in decision-making,” he warned,  the World Bank have echoed for de-
            changing before our very eyes. Re-  challenger. Both courting the same   while technology — especially in the   cades. Now, as Western dominance
            placements are hard to create, and we   audience. Both aware that Europe is   age of artificial intelligence — would   wanes, those demands grow sharper.
            appear to be headed for a long twilight   unsettled.                become ever more transformative.      But the alternative is not yet clear.
            zone. This will be messy, risky, unpre-  Rubio’s speech was conciliato-  The era when trade liberaliza-  A genuinely multipolar order requires
            dictable, perhaps even dangerous.”  ry but edged with recalibration. The   tion was treated as an almost sacred   not just multiple poles of power, but
                Jaishankar’s  choice of words  —  Trump administration, he suggested,  good is over. Geopolitics now trumps   shared understandings of restraint
            twilight zone — is telling. The post-  remains committed to the alliance but   globalization. Supply chains are scru-  and responsibility. Without that, mul-
            1945 order, anchored in American   believes Europe “needs to do more”  tinized for strategic vulnerabilities.  tipolarity risks degenerating into frag-
            primacy, Western institutions and the   and that the international system it-  Semiconductors, rare earths, AI mod-  mentation.
            rhetoric of a “rules-based” system, is   self should be “rebuilt.” It was an ad-  els — these are not just commercial as-  The contest unfolding between
            no longer uncontested. But nor has a   mission, couched in reassurance, that   sets but instruments of national power.  Washington and Beijing over Europe
            coherent alternative emerged. What   even America sees the existing archi-  This is what a multipolar world   is only one theatre in a broader race —
            we see instead is overlap: fragments   tecture as no longer fit for purpose.  looks like in its formative stage: con-  as observers in Munich noted — “to
            of the old coexisting uneasily with ex-  Wang Yi’s pitch was smoother. If   tested, transactional, and anxious.  shape what comes next.” Will the new
            periments of the new.             China and the EU “firmly grasp” that   India’s  own  positioning  reflects   order be rebuilt around reformed
                Even as Jaishankar spoke in   they are partners, he said, they can   this reality. Delhi engages the Quad   Western institutions? Or will parallel
            Mumbai, the stage in Munich told its  “prevent the international community   but  remains  in  BRICS.  It  deepens   structures — BRICS banks, regional
            own story of flux. Minutes after U.S.  from moving toward division and pro-  ties with Washington even as it buys   trade blocs, technology spheres —
            Secretary of State Marco Rubio pro-  mote the continuous progress of hu-  discounted Russian oil. It speaks the   gradually hollow them out?
            claimed at the Munich Security Con-  man civilization.” Beijing’s message is   language of the Global South while   Jaishankar’s warning of a “long
            ference  that  the  United  States  and   clear: in a world of American unpre-  negotiating technology partnerships   twilight zone” suggests that clarity will
            Europe “belong together,” Chinese   dictability, China offers steadiness —  with advanced economies. Multipo-  not come soon. The transition will be
            Foreign Minister Wang Yi stood at   or at least an alternative.     larity, for India, is not a slogan but a   uneven. Crises will accelerate some
            the same podium with a different ap-  Behind these competing over-  survival strategy.                shifts; inertia will slow others. Allianc-
            peal: “China and the EU are partners,  tures lies a more profound shift. As   Yet the old order is not yielding   es will be tested; new alignments will
            not rivals.”                      Jaishankar observed, aspects of the   quietly. The United States still com-  form. In this in-between era, diploma-
                The choreography was striking.  current global order will coexist with   mands unmatched military reach. The   cy becomes a high-wire act. Nations
            Washington reassuring Europe that   elements of the new one. But the bal-  dollar remains dominant. NATO, for   must hedge without alienating, diver-
            the transatlantic bond remains intact.  ance is tilting. “Economics would in-  all the strain, endures. Europe, shak-  sify without destabilizing, and assert
            Beijing positioning itself as a prag-  creasingly give way to politics and se-  en but not severed from Washing-  without overreaching.

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