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    Op-Ed                                                              FEBRUARY 13, 2026       |  The Indian Eye 12

                                                            INDIAN INTEREST

                     PM MODI’S HALF-FULL GLASS

                            ANALOGY AND OPTIMISM:

                Navigating the Indo-US Trade “Truce”

                                                                                                                  sive return to the global stage.
                                                                                                                   The Return of Personal Diplomacy
                                                                                                                      The  sheer  velocity  of  the  an-
                                                                                                                  nouncement—coming  on  the  heels
                                                                                                                  of  a  direct,  high-level  call  between
                                                                                                                  PM  Modi  and  the  U.S.  President—
                                                                                                                  reaffirms  that  “personal  chemistry”
                                                                                                                  remains the most potent tool in the
                                                                                                                  modern diplomatic arsenal. In an era
                                                                                                                  of  bureaucratic  gridlock,  the  ability
                                                                                                                  of two leaders to bypass traditional
                                                                                                                  channels and strike a “strategic truce”
                       SUNIL HALI                                                                                 highlights  the  premium  placed  on
                                                                                                                  the  bilateral  bond.  This  top-down
                n  2014,  standing  in  the  histor-                                                              approach has effectively neutralized
                ic  Central  Hall  of  Parliament,                                                                the protectionist lobbies in both cap-
            IPrime  Minister  Narendra  Modi                                                                      itals that were pushing for a further
            famously reframed the age-old “half-                                                                  escalation of duties.
            full” metaphor. He suggested that a
            glass is never truly empty; it is always      Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaking in Parliament (ANI)   The Strategic “EU Factor”
            full—half  with  water  and  half  with                                                                   Perhaps the most intriguing cat-
            air. This “born optimist” philosophy,  friction and economic brinkmanship.  “zero  tariff”  commitment,  whereas   alyst for this deal was India’s historic
            which turned a moment of political   By  removing  the  25%  punitive  sur-  New  Delhi  maintains  a  firm  stance   Free  Trade  Agreement  (FTA)  with
            transition into a mandate for nation-  charge,  Washington  has  signaled  a   on  protecting  its  sensitive  agricul-  the  European  Union,  clinched  just
            al hope, serves as the perfect lens for   willingness  to  decouple  geopolitical   ture and dairy sectors. This tension   days prior to the U.S. announcement.
            analyzing  the  recent  bilateral  trade   disagreements  from  core  economic   suggests that while the trade war has   By  successfully  diversifying  toward
            agreement  between  India  and  the   cooperation. This effectively lowers   ended,  the  trade  negotiation  is  far   the EU, India sent a clear signal to
            United  States.  While  skeptics  and   the  temperature  in  a  relationship   from over.            Washington:  New  Delhi  has  alter-
            critics might focus on the remaining   that remains the undisputed corner-                            nate mega-markets ready to absorb
            18%  tariff  as  a  lingering  void,  the   stone  of  Indo-Pacific  stability.  For   Immediate Boost to Global   its goods. This “EU Factor” likely in-
                                                                                        Competitiveness
            strategic “air” in the glass represents   India, it is a validation of its “multi-                    centivized U.S. negotiators to secure
                                                                                    The economic impact of the 18%
            a  massive,  necessary  de-escalation   aligned” foreign policy; for the U.S.,   floor cannot be overstated. Indian in-  their “slice of the pie” before Euro-
            of  an  economic  relationship  that,  it is an acknowledgement that India   dustry responded with an immediate   pean  firms  gained  an  unshakeable
            throughout  2025,  was  nearing  a  cat-  is too significant a node in the global   relief  rally  on  the  bourses,  reflect-  first-mover advantage in the Indian
            astrophic breaking point.         supply chain to be sidelined by tem-  ing  a  surge  in  investor  confidence.   market.
                The  deal  marks  a  pivotal  shift   porary policy disputes.
            from what many analysts dubbed the                                  Mathematically, the 18% rate places     A Balanced Optimism
                                                                                                                      The  India-U.S.  trade  deal  is
            “tariff bloodbath” of 2025. It success-  Sector-Specific Vigilance and   Indian exporters at a slight but signif-  not a finished masterpiece, but it is
                                                                                icant advantage over regional rivals
                                                         Ambiguity
            fully slashes the effective duty on a   While  the  broad  reduction  to   like  Vietnam  and  Bangladesh  (hov-  a masterstroke in de-escalation. We
            vast  majority  of  Indian  goods  from   18%  is  a  cause  for  celebration,  the   ering  around  20%)  and  gives  them   should  view  this  development  with
            a  staggering  50%—a  rate  that  in-  “water”  in  the  glass  requires  care-  a  massive  head  start  over  Chinese   the same “full glass” optimism that
            cluded  punitive  measures  triggered   ful  measurement.  Stakeholders  are   exports, which face tariffs in the 30-  Modi championed in 2014. The “wa-
            by  India’s  continued  procurement
            of Russian oil—down to a far more   currently  awaiting  the  “final  paper-  35% range.              ter”  (the  technical  details  and  duty
                                                                                    Labor-intensive  sectors  such  as
                                              ing”  of  the  deal,  which  will  reveal
                                                                                                                  cuts)  provides  the  immediate  suste-
            manageable  18%.  To  understand   the granular details often hidden in   textiles, leather, and gems and jewel-  nance the economy needs, while the
            why  this  is  a  victory  of  pragmatism   legalistic  footnotes.  Critical  exemp-  ry—which  suffered  production  cuts  “air” (the strategic intent and future
            over protectionism, we must look at   tions remain a point of contention—  of up to 70% during the peak tariff   potential) provides the room for the
            the specific pillars that support this   most notably the Section 232 duties   period  of  2025—are  already  report-  relationship  to  breathe  and  expand.
            new bridge across the Atlantic.
                                              on  steel  and  aluminum  that  have   ing  a  revival  in  order  visibility.  For   Moving  forward,  the  challenge  will
              A Reset in Bilateral Sentiment  long been a thorn in the side of In-  the  MSME  (Micro,  Small,  and  Me-  be to ensure that these two elements
                The  agreement  acts  as  a  vital   dian heavy industry. Furthermore, a   dium  Enterprises)  sector,  this  32%   are perfectly balanced, transforming
            “confidence-building  measure”  after   narrative gap has emerged: U.S. ne-  reduction  in  duty  is  the  difference   a temporary truce into a sustainable,
            a  year  characterized  by  diplomatic   gotiators have hinted at a long-term   between  insolvency  and  an  aggres-  long-term economic partnership.

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