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    COVER STORY                                                          JANUARY 23, 2026      |  The Indian Eye                    4

                                                           WAR ON IRAN

                   IMPACT ON

                                                INDIA

                     As Washington hardens its stance on Iran with threats of military action and punitive tariffs,
               India faces a complex geopolitical and economic squeeze that could undermine its regional interests,

                                  trade competitiveness and already-strained ties with the United States

                                                                                                                  already under strain.
            OUR BUREAU
                                                                                                                      India’s ties with Iran are not
            New Delhi / Washington, DC                                                                            ideological but deeply pragmatic.
                                                                                                                  Tehran has long been a critical part-
               ndia’s decision to advise its na-                                                                  ner in India’s westward connectivity
               tionals to leave Iran amid rapidly
            Iescalating tensions is more than a                                                                   strategy, particularly through the
                                                                                                                  Chabahar Port project. Conceived
            routine consular precaution. It is an                                                                 as early as 2003, Chabahar provides
            early signal of how a potential US war                                                                India a rare overland and maritime
            on Iran — combined with President                                                                     route to Afghanistan and Central
            Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff pol-                                                                 Asia, bypassing Pakistan. It also
            icy — could negatively impact New                                                                     forms a key node in the Internation-
            Delhi’s economic interests, region-                                                                   al North–South Transport Corridor
            al strategy and delicate relationship                                                                 (INSTC), linking India to Russia and
            with Washington. While India has                                                                      Europe.
            publicly sought to downplay the im-                                                                       To operationalize this, Indian
            mediate trade impact, the broader                                                                     Ports Global Limited (IPGL) signed
            implications of conflict and coercive                                                                 a  long-term  agreement  with  Iran’s
            economic measures are far more con-                                                                   Port & Maritime Organization, re-
            sequential and long-term.                                                                             placing the earlier 2016 pact that
              Rising tensions and concerns                                                                        had been renewed annually due to
                                                                                                                  sanctions uncertainty. Chabahar has
                  he Ministry of External Af-                                                                     already been used for strategic con-
                  fairs  (MEA)  confirmed  this
            Tweek that around 9,000 In-                                                                           signments, including 20,000 tonnes
                                                                                                                  of wheat aid to Afghanistan in 2023.
            dians are currently in Iran, most of                                                                      However, the project’s future
            them students, and that multiple ad-                                                                  now hinges on a conditional US
            visories have been issued urging them                                                                 sanctions  waiver  issued  by  the  US
            to leave the country by “whatever                                                                     Treasury on October 28, 2025, valid
            means are available.” MEA spokes-                                                                     only until April 26, 2026. India has
            person Randhir Jaiswal said India                                                                     confirmed it is “engaged with the US
            was “closely tracking developments”                                                                   side” to ensure continuity. But a full-
            and was “committed to doing whatev-                                                                   scale US–Iran confrontation could
            er is necessary” for their well-being.                                                                easily render such waivers politically
                These advisories come against   External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, on
            the backdrop of widespread an-                                                                        untenable.
                                                                                                                      If war breaks out, Chabahar —
            ti-government protests in Iran, a   the sidelines of the SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting in Tianjin (@DrSJaishankar X/ANI file photo)  located not far from sensitive mar-
            deepening economic crisis  marked                                                                     itime routes — could be directly
            by  inflation  and  currency  collapse,   harmed or executed, and has open-  is intertwined with a much larger   affected, disrupting India’s connec-
            and increasingly explicit threats from   ly encouraged demonstrators, saying   strategic dilemma: how to protect its   tivity plans and undermining years of
            US President Donald Trump. Trump   that “help is on the way.”       interests in Iran without triggering   diplomatic investment.
            has warned of “very strong action”    For India, the immediate hu-  punitive action from Washington at
            against  Tehran  if protesters  are   manitarian concern for its citizens   a time when Indo-US relations  are   Continued on next page... >>

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