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    OPINION                                                                   JULY 17, 2026    |  The Indian Eye 11

            to  Indo-Pacific  security,  including                                                                strategy document.
            through continued quadrilateral co-                                                                       IMEC remains largely unbuilt.
            operation”. Still, the weight given to                                                                The  conflicts  reshaping  West  Asia
            the relationship is measurably light-                                                                 have stalled its premise of stable
            er than in the 2017 document, which                                                                   transit routes and normalised Arab–
            placed India at the heart of its Asia                                                                 Israeli relations. The westward pivot
            framework.                                                                                            is a bet on a future geography rather
                The 2026 National Defense                                                                         than a present reality. But as a hedge
            Strategy, authored under Under Sec-                                                                   against marginalisation in the east, it
            retary Elbridge Colby, organises Asia                                                                 is the right bet to be making.
            policy around  “a  strong  denial  de-                                                                           Conclusion
            fence along the First Island Chain”, a
            geographic spine running from Japan                                                                         he retirement of ‘Indo’ from
            through Taiwan to the Philippines.                                                                          a military command is a sym-
            The Indian Ocean sits outside it. The                                                                 Tbol, not a rupture. But symbols
            strategy does not mention the Quad.                                                                   carry information, and this one says
            Hegseth’s remarks at the 2026 Shan-                                                                   something real: American strategy
            gri-La Dialogue referred consistently                                                                 is narrowing towards a Pacific deter-
            to “the Pacific”. They described India    The US strategy defined the region as stretching “from our Pacific coastline to the Indian   rence problem in which India’s geog-
            as “a critical anchor in South Asia”,          Ocean”, pushing the western boundary further (File photo)   raphy matters less than it did when
            a useful but unmistakably regional                                                                    the  Indo-Pacific  was  first  conceived.
            rather than oceanic in scope.                                                                         On  the  Indo-Pacific  itself,  India
                The harder question is wheth-  deepen ties with Japan, France, Aus-  tories include the principal democ-  should keep building what already
            er this  constitutes a clean  break or   tralia and Southeast Asian partners   racies of three continents, and its   works within the Quad: maritime
            merely  a  clarification  of  what  the   on India’s own terms.     premise is direct: India, positioned   domain awareness sharing, critical
            Indo-Pacific  always  was.  Was  the   This position is coherent. But   at the junction of the Indian Ocean,   minerals cooperation, and technol-
            construct ever a genuinely inclu-  it should not be mistaken for indif-  the Gulf, and the Red Sea approach-  ogy partnerships under frameworks
            sive regional order, or primarily an   ference to what India gained during   es, is the indispensable node through   like iCET, none of which depend on
            anti-China coalition? The ‘Indo’   the  Indo-Pacific  decade.  Sustained   which this connectivity must pass.  how Washington names its command
            carried operational weight so long   American  engagement  brought      Surrounding IMEC is a careful-  structure. But New Delhi must also
            as Washington judged that balanc-  technology-transfer  commitments,  ly  assembled  lattice of  minilateral   fix what lies within its own control. A
            ing China required a maritime arc   maritime-domain awareness part-  arrangements. The I2U2 grouping   navy that receives the smallest share
            extending towards Africa’s eastern   nerships, and a seat at consequential   with Israel, the UAE and the United   of India’s defence budget cannot car-
            shores. Once American strategy    minilateral tables. The bilateral rela-  States, launched in July 2022, opened   ry  the  maritime  responsibility  India
            narrowed  to  denying  China  a  swift   tionship has also grown more trans-  with a UAE commitment to invest   claims for itself in the Indian Ocean.
            military fait accompli near Taiwan,   actional, with disputes over tariffs   two billion dollars in an Indian food   Closing that gap matters more than
            India’s  geographic position became   and India’s continued purchase of   park and clean-energy infrastructure.   any further joint statement.
            peripheral to  the core  operational   Russian energy signalling that Wash-  The India–EU Connectivity Partner-  The real test of India’s strategic
            problem. The construct’s coherence   ington’s tolerance for Indian hedging   ship of May 2021 ties together digi-  seriousness is not whether it keeps its
            depended on a particular theory of   is not unconditional. A contracting   tal, energy and transport links from   place on America’s map. It is wheth-
            competition. Change the theory, and   Indo-Pacific  architecture  could  re-  Brussels to Mumbai, positioning In-  er India draws a map of its own, one
            the map contracts.                duce the leverage India once held to   dia as the eastern anchor of Europe-  in which the Indo-Mediterranean is
            Strategic Consequences for India  extract concessions in defence tech-  an connectivity outreach.     not a fallback but a genuine theatre
                                              nology and trade. The gains were      In May 2026, Prime Minister   built outward from Indian ports, sup-
               ndia’s salience to American strat-  real; treating their erosion as incon-  Narendra Modi and Italian Prime   ply chains and alliances. That map is
               egy may prove more contingent   sequential would be a strategic error.  Minister Meloni jointly described the   already being sketched  out through
            Ithan intrinsic. If Washington now   The Indo-Mediterranean Moment  Indian Ocean and Mediterranean as   IMEC, I2U2, and a deepening part-
            prioritises  allies  capable  of  fighting                          “regions that cannot be viewed as   nership with Europe. Whether New
            a Taiwan contingency, India, which      he most consequential feature   separate  spheres  but instead  as  in-  Delhi commits the money, the ships,
            is neither a treaty ally nor intends to   of India’s current statecraft is   creasingly interconnected spaces”,   and the diplomatic attention needed
            become one, sits outside the priority  Tnot how it responds to eastern   giving the emerging concept of an “In-  to  finish  it  is  the  question  that  will
            circle. That problem is compounded   marginalisation but how it is con-  do-Mediterranean” theatre its most   matter more than anything Washing-
            by capacity: India’s naval budget re-  structing a western theatre in which   authoritative political expression to date.  ton decides to call its commands.
            ceives the smallest allocation among   its centrality is structural rather than   The contrast with the Indo-Pacif-
            its three services, even as land-border   negotiated.               ic is instructive. In the Pacific-centric   Priyanshu Agarwal is a Doctoral re-
            pressures with China and Pakistan     The  India–Middle East–Eu-    vision now ascendant in Washington,   searcher at the School of International
            absorb resources and limit the mar-  rope Economic Corridor (IMEC),   India is a valued but peripheral part-  Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University,
            itime power projection that would   launched through an MoU signed at   ner whose contributions are welcome    New Delhi, India.
            give India’s Indian Ocean claims real   the G20 New Delhi Summit in Sep-  but not load-bearing. Across the In-  Views expressed are of the author and
            operational weight.               tember 2023 by India, the United   do-Mediterranean arc, India is the   do not necessarily reflect the views of
                A competing reading deserves   States, the European Union, Sau-  point of origin. The corridor cannot
            fair treatment. India has consistently   di Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Israel,   be built without it. The minilaterals   the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
                                                                                                                         Government of India.
            maintained that its strategic auton-  France, Germany and Italy, envisions   cannot function without it. The EU
            omy is a considered doctrine rather   rail and shipping links from Indian   connectivity  framework  is  premised   The full version of this article first ap-
            than its absence. From this vantage,   ports to European markets via West   on India as a productive anchor rath-  peared in the Comments section of the
            an America less focused on enrolling   Asia. The corridor is explicitly posi-  er than  an  end-market.  That  struc-  website (www.idsa.in) of Manohar Par-
            India in alliance frameworks may ac-  tioned as an alternative to China’s   tural centrality is worth more than   rikar Institute for Defense Studies and
            tually give New Delhi more room to   Belt  and  Road  Initiative.  Its  signa-  nominal inclusion in someone else’s   Analyses, New Delhi, on July 3, 2026

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