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    OPINION                                                                  JUNE 26, 2026     |  The Indian Eye 11

            sary to safeguard strategic and eco-                                                                  ern Border Region), Northern Trans-
            nomic interests.                                                                                      port and Trade Corridors  (Man-
                                                                                                                  dalay-to-Myitkyina Highway),  and
            In  addition  to managing  do-                                                                        Magway Region (Central Heartland).
                                                                                                                      The post-election political en-
            mestic upheavals, China has                                                                           vironment suggests that the trajec-
            been instrumental in providing                                                                        tory of Myanmar’s civil war may be
                                                                                                                  transformed into a lower-intensity
            Myanmar with a diplomatic                                                                             conflict  rather  than  a  comprehen-

            shield. China has helped re-                                                                          sive resolution. Moreover, historical
                                                                                                                  patterns of the military’s strategy to-
            duce Myanmar’s diplomatic                                                                             wards armed groups suggest that a
            isolation and mitigate puni-                                                                          status quo phase may occur, and the
                                                                                                                  civil war is likely to be partial, local-
            tive international initiatives                                                                        ised, and uneven. In the recent past,

            against it. It has also facili-                                                                       Myanmar has witnessed multi-lay-
                                                                                                                  ered and non-linear peace and rec-
            tated Myanmar’s re-entry into        This should be examined in relation to India’s strategic interests, as China’s presence is   onciliation processes among various
            multilateral forums.               increasingly intertwined with India’s strategic objectives, including the Act East Policy, North-  actors, such as the 2015 Nationwide
                                                              east connectivity and border security (File photo)   Ceasefire  Agreement  (NCA).  The
                                                                                                                  more likely scenario involves nego-
                This Chinese approach certainly                                                                   tiated arrangements at the regional
                                                                                    From India’s point of view,
            has  a  few  long-term  consequences,   the relationship is evident in efforts   Myanmar is not only an important   or sub-national level, and a few ac-
                                              to develop bilateral financial mech-
            including greater reliance on Chi-  anisms  to  reduce  dependence  on   player in its Act East calculus, but a   tors may choose co-existence over
            nese investment, technology, finance   Western financial systems. Coopera-  security concern due to the refugee   integration, consolidating control
            and trade. From a future perspec-  tion has also expanded into advanced   inflows into Mizoram and Manipur,   within  defined  territories.  For  In-
            tive, this state of dependency makes   technology sectors, including remote   cross-border insurgent sanctuaries,   dia, the key is to continue engaging
            it increasingly difficult for Myanmar   sensing projects and space-relat-  narcotics trafficking, weapons smug-  with the government while maintain-
            to balance China against India, Ja-  ed initiatives involving the Russian   gling, and instability generated by   ing  mechanisms  for  access  in  areas
            pan, ASEAN and Western partners.  space agency.[20] There have also   civil war. Media reports suggest that   outside direct state control. India’s
                Since the  2021  military coup,                                                                   connectivity projects meanwhile can
            Myanmar has increasingly relied on   been reports of possible Russian sup-  these issues were part of the Modi–  focus on  phased, context-sensitive
                                                                                Hlaing talks.
                                              port  for Myanmar’s reconnaissance
            Russia as its principal defence part-  satellite ambitions, although neither   India has been managing the   implementation.
            ner,  with  Moscow  playing  a  signifi-  government has officially confirmed   border with Myanmar in a situation   President Min Aung Hlaing’s
            cant role in supporting the military’s   such cooperation.          where the other side lacks a cen-  presidency has provided greater op-
            campaign against resistance forc-     The 2021 military coup was    tral authority to deal with; in other   portunity for constitutional legitima-
            es.  Russia  has  continued  to  engage   a  disruption  for  India—as  it  was   words, the absence of any official au-  cy and diplomatic acceptability. India
            with Myanmar despite numerous     for ASEAN and other geopolitical   thority. As per policy, India does not   has engaged with Myanmar, while
            international sanctions and restric-  players.  India’s  priority  was  stabil-  recognise the EAOs’ authority, also   dealing with an insecure border, civil
            tions imposed by Western countries.   ity along the border. Established   due to deep fragmentation within   war spillover, the post-coup wave of
            Along with China, Russia has helped   mechanisms such as sectoral-level   the EAOs, even among those groups   refugees and drug and arms traffick-
            Myanmar mitigate the effects of in-  meetings were held with the Myan-  that operate along Indian borders.   ing, which is exacerbating communi-
            ternational isolation and sanctions.   mar junta to address issues relating   The geographical positioning of   ty tensions and conflict in Manipur.
            Beyond military assistance, Russia   to insurgent activities against India   EAOs from India’s perspective is   The junta is leaning on China and
            has also provided diplomatic, eco-  from Myanmar’s territory and other   highly sensitive, as it is closely tied to   Russia for the bulk of its support.
            nomic and technological support.  cross-border threats affecting con-  India’s strategic outlook and several   Regardless of the other relationships
                Beyond defence cooperation,                                                                       being established, India is crucial for
            the two countries have developed a   nectivity projects and vital maritime   infrastructure projects, such as the   Myanmar. India can still gain from
                                                                                Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Trans-
                                              trade. The last such meeting was
            broader strategic  convergence over   held in January 2025.         port Project and the India–Myan-  this situation as it has the potential to
            the past six years. Russia’s state-   Economically, the 2024 oper-  mar–Thailand Trilateral Highway.  influence Myanmar and India simply
            owned nuclear corporation, Rosa-  ationalisation  of  the Rupee-Kyat    A large portion of these projects   cannot afford to be absent.
            tom, has partnered with Myanmar   Trade Settlement Mechanism has    falls within areas where EAOs and
            on nuclear energy development and   smoothed commerce, as reflected in   resistance forces maintain a pres-  Dr. Om Prakash Das is a Research Fel-
            plans to establish a low-capacity nu-  trade data, which reached US$ 2.15   ence.  This  hinders  the  completion   low at the Southeast Asia & Oceania
            clear power plant in the country. At   billion, and both sides are now aim-  of these projects, and their relevance   Centre of the Manohar Parrikar Insti-
            the same time, Russia has emerged   ing to increase this to US$ 5 billion by   could be called into question if the   tute for Defence Studies and Analyses
            as Myanmar’s leading oil supplier,   2030. India has also strengthened its   smooth functioning of economic ac-  (MP-IDSA) in New Delhi
            accounting for more than 90 per cent   position as a ‘first responder’, as evi-  tivity through these projects is not   Views expressed are of the author and
            of the country’s oil imports in 2024.   denced by the massive humanitarian   assured. Recent advancements by   do not necessarily reflect the views of
            On the economic front, expanding   response during the 2025 earthquake   the Myanmar military suggest it is   the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
            trade,  financial  cooperation,  invest-  through ‘Operation Brahma’, under-  regaining offensive momentum and   Government of India.
            ment promotion, and potential col-  scoring its intent to remain a stabilis-  has recaptured several strategic ter-
            laboration on infrastructure projects   ing regional power. This is supported   ritories from resistance forces.   The ful version of this article first
            such as the Dawei Special Econom-  by balancing infrastructure develop-  The primary areas and territories   appeared in the Comments section of
            ic Zone have elevated Russia’s role   ment with essential capacity building   recaptured by the military include   the website (www.idsa.in) of Mano-
            beyond that of a purely transactional   to maintain its strategic foothold in   Chin State  (Northwestern Border   har Parrikar Institute for Defense
            partner.                          Southeast Asia.                   Region), Tanintharyi Region (South-  Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, on
                Another important dimension of                                                                              June 15, 2026

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