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    OPINION                                                                   MAY 01, 2026     |  The Indian Eye 11

            self-reliant. The development of off-
            shore oilfields over time could boost
            the Cuban economy and national
            prosperity,  making  Cuba  a  signifi-
            cant player in the region’s petroin-
            dustry, although possibly at the cost
            of economic diversification.
                Amidst the downplayed oil di-
            mension in Venezuela and Iran
            adventures, President Trump’s at-
            tention on Cuba as well as the US
            companies’ interest in exploration
            of  its  oilfields  converge  at  a  point
            where the country needs to be
            opened up for exploration. President
            Obama took a few steps towards
            engagement,  but  President  Trump
            has a different way of achieving his
            goals. The oil potential of Cuba fits
            into his long-term scheme of Making
            America Great Again (MAGA), for
            which dominating the global energy
            market, along with the geopolitics of
            the Western Hemisphere, is an im-
            portant condition.
                Industry experts do not expect
            any global disruption due to the
            availability of Cuban oil in future,
            and the realization of the estimated
            potential may not impact the global   President Trump’s conflict with countries that posed no immediate or imminent military threat to the US should at least be explained
            prices in general. But Cuba shall be                                by economic logic and motivation (File photo)
            energy self-reliant with the realiza-
            tion of even the lower end of the es-
            timates. Further, the country’s tran-  tives rather than economic ones, the   the stated strategic objectives are   tion is further highlighted by Pres-
            sition to being a net oil exporter will   correlation with oil has received little   achieved through regime change.   ident  Trump’s statements  and ex-
            have a positive impact on its econo-  attention from analysts, who focus   US involvement in oil exploration   ecutive order regarding his energy
            my, leading to the failure of the long-  only on the country’s current proven   and production in Cuba could be a   policy. The US–Israel–Iran war has
            term US sanctions policy against   reserves and production capacity.  viable option for the communist Cu-  not yet concluded, and the outcomes
            Cuba. Hence, it is imperative from    The US military actions and ob-  ban government as well, but it can-  may not be as the US expected, but
            the US perspective to keep Cuba   jectives on Venezuela and Iran are   not happen without the US securing   oil could be a benefit in all the three.
            energy-starved until the geopolitical   being shaped from a long-term Trum-  guarantees to protect its stated stra-  The endgames of the US aggression
            and economic positions of the two   pian economic and strategic perspec-  tegic interests in the country. Presi-  against Venezuela, Iran  and  Cuba
            countries are aligned. The alignment   tive, and Cuba is no exception. The   dent Trump had already indicated   may  focus on  long-term deals  that
            is possible either with regime change   exploration and development of oil   the possibility of a deal between the   include oil benefits.
            in Cuba or a paradigm shift in the   fields  in  these  countries  may  take   two countries  without an invasion,   The focus on the nuclear ma-
            US policy to engage the country with   around a decade or more and re-  referring to  a  takeover  in  “some   terial issue might be more useful
            its political system intact. President   quire heavy investment. Cuba, with   form”. Any deal, however, would   for legitimizing the catastrophe un-
            Obama’s efforts to engage and relax   its oil potential, is also among the top   depend on the Cuban government’s   leashed. But, from the perspective of
            sanctions on Cuba faced tough resis-  global producers of Cobalt and Nick-  willingness to shed its ideological   Trumpian MAGA priorities, the suc-
            tance, especially by migrant Cubans   el (critical metals for electric vehicle   opposition  to  the  US  government.   cess, rationale, wisdom and the eco-
            who have a grudge against the Com-  battery production) that may be im-  Apart from the US desire to detach   nomics of these military adventures
            munist regime.                    portant to a futuristic US foreign pol-  Cuba from China, Russia and other   would remain highly questionable in
                President Trump, however, in   icy. But, President Trump has already   unfriendly states in the region, oil ex-  the absence of any energy/oil deals.
            the new geopolitical context of in-  ‘debunked’ US policy supporting and   ploration could be another lucrative
            creasing  influence  of  China  and   promoting electric vehicles by pri-  potential benefit for the Trump Ad-  Dr.  Saurabh  Mishra is  a  Research
            Russia in the Latin American Re-  oritizing oil and gas over green and   ministration.                Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Insti-
            gion, wants to decisively change the   renewable energy sources. Hence, oil   President  Trump’s  conflict  with   tute for Defence Studies and Analyses
            long-maintained status quo to ben-  has emerged as a clear priority in his   countries that posed no immedi-  (MP-IDSA)
            efit the US through regime change.   calculations for engaging or targeting   ate or imminent military threat to   Views expressed are of the author and
            His rhetoric on Cuba is explained by   countries to achieve his strategic and   the US should at least be explained   do not necessarily reflect the views of
            the convergence of his strategic vi-  foreign policy goals. In the context of   by economic logic and motivation.   the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
            sions of securing the Western Hemi-  Cuba, too, potential oil fields have to   Any conflict initiated for any reason   Government of India.
            sphere for the US by driving China   be given greater weight than renew-  ultimately has its economic end-
            and Russia out, and of dominating   ables and critical minerals to under-  game. And, as we examine here,   The full version of this article first ap-
            the global energy market. As Pres-  stand the Trumpian economic and   oil fits in as the variable correlating   peared in the Comments section of the
            ident Trump’s actions in Cuba are   strategic calculus.             to Trump’s aggression and military   website (www.idsa.in) of Manohar Par-
            being analyzed more from strategic    The oil potential of Cuba would   threat against Venezuela, Iran and   rikar Institute for Defense Studies and
            and high-level geopolitical perspec-  be  an  unsaid  benefit  for  the  US  if   Cuba. The presence of the correla-  Analyses, New Delhi, on April 22, 2026

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