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Page 10 - The Indan EYE 050126
P. 10

    OPINION                                                                   MAY 01, 2026     |  The Indian Eye 10

              Correlating US Aggression

                     on Cuba, Venezuela and

                              Iran: The Oil Factor

                 President Trump’s conflict with countries that posed no immediate or imminent military
               threat to the US should at least be explained by economic logic and motivation. Any conflict

                                    initiated for any reason ultimately has its economic endgame

            SAURABH MISHRA

                  t the beginning of 2026,
                  United States (US) forces
            Aabducted President Nicolás
            Maduro of Venezuela with the in-
            tention of regime change, although
            the stated goals were different. We
            also witness the US facing extreme
            difficulty  in  breaking  Iran’s  will  to
            fight, and Tehran is resisting regime
            change despite immense losses to
            its top leadership, military and civil-
            ian infrastructure. Cuba, too, has a
            standing threat issued by President
            Trump, who had been projecting
            himself as the ‘President of Peace’
            until a few months ago.
                The range and nature of the
            targets selected at the beginning of
            the US–Israeli joint strikes were be-  Oil companies from Canada, China, Russia, Spain, Norway and India had shown interest and invested in Cuba’s offshore exploration blocks,
            yond what was required to eliminate
            Iran’s nuclear capability, which was                                but nothing productive has come of it (IDSA)
            allegedly achieved in June 2025 it-
            self.  Therefore, the  US’s  emphasis   to study, as President Trump himself   ical assessments of Cuba, especially   its energy dependence on Venezuela
            on the nuclear dimension as justifi-  has highlighted that the US is a net   its northern offshore Exclusive Eco-  and Mexico amid the post-Cold War
            cation for the attacks seemed more   energy exporter and does not need   nomic Zone (EEZ) blocks, iden-  geopolitical landscape. Oil compa-
            like a bogeyman. At the same time,   foreign oil as it did in the past. It is   tify and acknowledge its potential   nies from Canada, China, Russia,
            the real objectives were different   noteworthy that within a month of   to catapult itself among the top 20   Spain, Norway and India had shown
            and linked to the long-term Trum-  the inauguration of his second stint,   largest proven oil reservoirs in the   interest and invested in Cuba’s off-
            pian grand strategy to be achieved   President Trump signed an executive   world and become a significant play-  shore exploration blocks, but noth-
            through regime change in Iran. Pres-  order stating his administration’s   er  in  the oil  economy  of  the  Latin   ing productive has come of it. Almost
            ident Trump, known for his transac-  policy of “making America energy   American Region. Even if the mean   80 per cent of the exploration area
            tionalism, is spending billions of dol-  dominant”. To this end, the order es-  potential of the reserves is realized,   lies in deep or ultra-deep waters, and
            lars on military adventures in Iran.   tablished the National Energy Dom-  only Venezuela and Canada would   oil  cannot  be  easily  extracted  with
            Hence, the question is what motivat-  inance Council (NEDC) under the   be able to surpass Cuba in terms of   old technology. The state-of-the-
            ed him to go to this war.         Executive Office of the President  per capita oil reserves in the West-  art exploration technology is owned
                President Trump started his sec-  Cuba currently has only 124 bil-  ern Hemisphere. The estimates for   and controlled by the US, which has
            ond term with the slogan “drill baby   lion barrels of proven oil reserves,   the Cuban offshore fields are at least   imposed  sanctions  and a blockade
            drill”. He concluded that producing   ranking it the 67th largest reserve   half the size of the US’s Alaskan oil   against  Cuba,  making  it  difficult  to
            more oil would help grow the US   holder. The US and Cuban geolog-  reserves.                         drill due to technology and invest-
            economy  faster  and  secure  its  fu-  ical surveys estimate recoverable oil   Since the discovery of Cuba’s   ment denial, and practically choking
            ture hegemony. His pursuit of for-  reserves between 4.6 and 20 billion   oil potential in the early 21st centu-  the  country  from  becoming  energy
            eign oil resources is also important   barrels, respectively. Various geolog-  ry, the country has sought to reduce   Continued on next page... >>

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