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    Op-Ed                                                                    APRIL 10, 2026    |  The Indian Eye 14

                                                            INDIAN INTEREST

                Are We Already Living Through

                                        a Third World War?

                            From the Middle East to Eastern Europe and beyond, a web of conflicts is raising
                                          an unsettling question about the nature of global war today

                                                                                                                  The Ukraine  war has transformed
                                                                                                                  defence spending and alliances across
                                                                                                                  Europe.  Financial  markets  react  in-
                                                                                                                  stantly to developments in either the-
                                                                                                                  atre,  demonstrating  how  tightly  cou-
                                                                                                                  pled these conflicts have become.
                                                                                                                      At the centre of this shifting land-
                                                                                                                  scape is the growing rivalry between
                                                                                                                  the United States and China. Often
                                                                                                                  described as a “new Cold War,” this
                                                                                                                  competition is less ideological than its
                                                                                                                  20th-century counterpart but no less
                                                                                                                  significant.  It  shapes  how  conflicts
                     SHOBHAN SAXENA                                                                               unfold, how alliances are formed and
                                                                                                                  how crises are managed.
                  he  ongoing  war  in  Iran  is  no                                                                  The  analysis  in  The  Guardian
                  longer  a  contained  region-                                                                   points to this broader pattern—where
            Tal  conflict.  What  began  as      Often described as a “new Cold War,” the competition between the US and China is less   regional  wars  are  no  longer  purely
            US-Israeli strikes has expanded into        ideological than its 20th-century counterpart but no less significant  regional, but part of a wider contest
            a broader theatre of retaliation and                                                                  for influence between major powers.
            counter-retaliation,  threatening  to   flecting  deep-rooted  instability.  In-  Taken  together,  these  develop-  Meanwhile,  the  Council  on  Foreign
            engulf  the  wider  Middle  East.  The   dia and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed   ments suggest not a single war, but a   Relations has warned that the accu-
            risk, as several analysts have noted, is   neighbours, remain locked in a vola-  world in systemic turmoil.  mulation  of  simultaneous  conflicts
            not just escalation within the region   tile  relationship  where  escalation  is   So, does this amount to a Third   increases the risk of miscalculation,
            but  spillover  beyond  it—through  en-  never far away. These are long-stand-  World War?            especially  when  great-power  inter-
            ergy  markets,  military  alliances  and   ing  conflicts,  but  their  persistence   By traditional definitions, it does   ests overlap.
            proxy networks.                   contributes to an increasingly fragile   not. The world wars of the 20th cen-  This  is  what  makes  the  present
                Crucially, this war is not unfold-  global environment.         tury were  marked  by  clear alliances,  moment so difficult to categorise. It
            ing  in  isolation.  As  analysis  in  The   In Latin America, rising tensions   mass mobilisation and direct confron-  lacks  the  clarity  of  past  world  wars,
            Guardian has observed, conflicts such   around Venezuela and renewed pres-  tation between major powers across   but it shares many of their underly-
            as those in Iran and Ukraine are be-  sure on Cuba suggest that geopolitical   multiple continents. There was a de-  ing dynamics: global reach, econom-
            coming “increasingly interconnected,”  contestation is widening. While these   fined  structure  to  the  conflict,  even   ic disruption, arms competition and
            linked by shared geopolitical rivalries,  situations have not yet escalated into   amid its chaos.    rising geopolitical tension.
            economic consequences and overlap-  full-scale wars, they reflect a broader   Today’s  landscape  is  far  more   Perhaps,  then,  the  question
            ping strategic interests. This intercon-  shift towards militarisation and strate-  fragmented. There is no formal dec-  is not whether we are in a Third
            nection is what gives the current mo-  gic posturing.               laration, no unified set of belligerents,  World War in the traditional sense.
            ment its global character.            Southeast  Asia  presents  a  simi-  no single battlefield.     It is whether we are witnessing the
                The Russia-Ukraine war, now in   lar pattern. Thailand and Cambodia   Yet the absence of a formal struc-  emergence of a new kind of global
            its fourth year, continues to reshape   have engaged in intermittent confron-  ture does not necessarily mean the   conflict—one  that  is  slower,  more
            the international order. What began   tations  over  border  disputes,  under-  absence of a global conflict.  fragmented and less visible, but still
            as a territorial invasion has evolved   scoring how even relatively localised   Modern warfare has evolved. As   deeply interconnected.
            into  a  prolonged  conflict  involving   tensions  can  persist  and  flare  up  in   many  strategic  analysts  argue,  the   For now, the conflicts remain dis-
            NATO  support,  sanctions  regimes   unpredictable ways.            current  era  is  defined  by  “hybrid   tinct, their boundaries largely intact.
            and  a  fundamental  reordering  of   Africa, meanwhile, remains a ma-  conflict”—a  mix  of  conventional   But those boundaries are under strain.
            global energy flows. According to the   jor theatre of conflict. From Somalia   warfare,  economic  pressure,  cyber   If the Iran war expands further,
            Council on Foreign Relations, the war   to  Ethiopia  and  Sudan,  multiple  cri-  operations  and  proxy  engagements.  if  the  Ukraine  conflict  escalates,  or
            remains one of the most consequen-  ses are unfolding simultaneously. The   In such a system, wars do not need   if  tensions  between  major  powers
            tial ongoing crises, with ripple effects   Council  on  Foreign  Relations  Con-  to merge into one to produce global   intensify,  the  lines  separating  these
            on food security, defence policy and   flict  Tracker  notes  that  “the  world   consequences;  they  simply  need  to   crises could begin to blur. And if that
            geopolitical alignments.          continues to grow more violent and   influence one another.         happens,  the  distinction  between
                Elsewhere, tensions between   disorderly,” pointing to an accumula-  That influence is increasingly evi-  multiple  wars  and  a  single  global
            Pakistan and Afghanistan frequently   tion of risks across regions rather than   dent. The Iran war is already reshap-  conflict may become increasingly dif-
            erupt  into  cross-border  clashes,  re-  a single dominant conflict.  ing  oil  markets  and  shipping  routes.  ficult to sustain.

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