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    COVER STORY                                                              APRIL 03, 2026    |  The Indian Eye                    5

            that we have adequate petrol and die-
            sel. There is no scarcity.”
                Government data points to strong
            supply fundamentals. India has more
            than one lakh retail fuel outlets “open
            and dispensing fuel without inter-
            ruption,” with “not a single outlet…
            asked  to  ration  supply.”  Refineries
            are operating at “over 100% utilisa-
            tion,” and crude supplies for the next
            60 days have already been secured.
                Officials  also  highlight  diversi-
            fication  as  a  key  buffer.  According
            to the government, India is sourcing
            crude from “41-plus suppliers across
            the  world,”  with  global  availability
            compensating for disruptions in tra-
            ditional routes. Even amid challenges
            at  the  Strait  of  Hormuz,  authorities
            maintain that “there is no supply
            gap.”
                Yet,  beneath  these  assurances   Prime Minister Narendra Modi chairs a high-level meeting to review the situation related to petroleum, crude, gas, power and fertiliser sectors
            lies a more complex global backdrop.   in view of the evolving West Asia situation, in New Delhi on Sunday. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and other
            A report by Ambit Institutional Equi-
            ties describes the current moment as                                Ministers also present. (DPR PMO/ANI Photo)
            one of “structural dislocation” in the
            global energy system following the   panies are actively seeking long-term   cal availability. Samajwadi Party chief   up depot operations to meet sudden
            2026 Middle East conflict.        safeguards. The Ambit report cites   Akhilesh Yadav criticised the govern-  surges in demand.
                The  report  quantifies  the  scale   international  partnerships,  including   ment, saying, “The Bharatiya Janata   Meanwhile,  administrative  and
            of disruption: “Kinetic strikes on   refinery  investments  abroad,  as  part   Party has given nothing but queues,”   political coordination is underway
            critical infrastructure have removed   of a strategy to “secure long-term   linking fuel concerns to broader pub-  at the highest levels. Prime Minister
            2.5mbd of refining capacity and 17%   hydrocarbon supplies while reducing   lic hardship.             Modi is set to review preparedness
            of Qatari LNG supply,” with recovery   reliance on traditional suppliers in   Despite  these  criticisms,  official   with  Chief  Ministers,  focusing  on
            timelines potentially stretching “up   volatile regions.”           messaging remains consistent: there   “coordinated action” in response to
            to five years.” It also highlights logis-  However, the economic implica-  is no immediate energy crisis. The Pe-  the  West  Asia  conflict.  An  all-party
            tical  shocks,  noting  that  the  “effec-  tions of sustained global disruption   troleum Ministry has stressed that In-  meeting has already been briefed on
            tive closure of the Strait of Hormuz   remain a concern. The report warns   dia, as a “net exporter,” has “structur-  the situation, with officials describing
            has forced a 95% reduction in mari-  that higher crude prices could “pres-  ally assured” availability of petrol and   India’s handling of energy supplies as
            time  transit,”  significantly  increasing   sure  the  financials  of  oil  marketing   diesel. It has also warned that spread-  a “diplomatic success.”
            freight costs.                    companies,”  potentially  compressing   ing false information about shortages   The evidence, therefore, presents
                These developments have tight-  margins and affecting balance sheets   is an offence and urged citizens to rely   a  dual  reality.  On  one  hand,  visible
            ened global supply and pushed prices   if retail price adjustments remain lim-  only on verified sources.  queues,  public  anxiety,  and  political
            higher. “Brent crude is established   ited.                             The government has also taken   criticism suggest stress within the sys-
            in  a  $80–$100/bbl  range,”  support-  Political reactions suggest that   operational steps to stabilise the sit-  tem. On the other, official data and
            ed by a “physical market shortage of   public perception may be shaped as   uation,  including  increasing  credit   infrastructure capacity indicate that
            7mbd,” the report states, adding that   much by economic stress as by physi-  limits for petrol pumps and ramping   supply lines remain intact and robust.
            geopolitical risk premiums are likely                                                                     The key variable appears to be
            to persist “till FY30.”                                                                               time. While India has insulated it-
                This divergence—between stable                                                                    self from immediate shocks through
            domestic supply and turbulent global                                                                  diversification  and  stockpiling,  the
            conditions—lies at the heart of the                                                                   global energy system is undergoing
            current debate. While India’s imme-                                                                   prolonged disruption. As the Ambit
            diate supply position appears secure,                                                                 report  notes,  normalization  could
            the external environment is becoming                                                                  take years, with elevated risk premi-
            increasingly volatile.                                                                                ums persisting through the decade.
                The government has acknowl-                                                                           For  now,  India’s  situation  does
            edged  these  risks  indirectly  through                                                              not reflect a conventional energy cri-
            its  policy  responses.  Officials  have                                                              sis defined by physical shortages or ra-
            pointed to expanded strategic re-                                                                     tioning. Instead, it reflects a complex
            serves,  increased  domestic  refining                                                                interplay of global disruption, domes-
            capacity, and diversification of import                                                               tic resilience, and public perception—
            sources over the past decade. Prime                                                                   where  panic,  rather  than  scarcity,  is
            Minister Narendra Modi noted that                                                                     driving visible strain.
            India has “sufficient crude oil reserves                                                                  Whether this balance holds will
            and robust arrangements for continu-                                                                  depend not only on domestic man-
            ous supply,” while highlighting a shift   People stand in a long queue with their LPG cylinders outside a gas agency amid the reported   agement but on how long the exter-
            from 27 to 41 import sources.                   LPG supply shortage, in Kanpur on Tuesday (ANI Photo)  nal shocks continue to reverberate
                At  the  same  time,  Indian  com-                                                                through global energy markets.

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