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    OPINION                                                                  APRIL 03, 2026    |  The Indian Eye 10

                     The US–Israel War on Iran:

              What Are Tehran’s Perceptions

                                               and Objectives?

                                                                                                                  tion and pressure against Iran.
                                                                                                                      On  the  first  day  of  war,  the
                                                                                                                  IRGC Navy relayed radio messages
                                                                                                                  to vessels stating that “no ship is al-
                                                                                                                  lowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz”.
                                                                                                                  Subsequently,  an  oil  tanker  was  hit
                                                                                                                  off Oman’s Musandam peninsula.
                                                                                                                  For  Iran,  the  objective  is  to  create
                                                                                                                  disruptions in a critical energy and
                                                                                                                  shipping route, causing a spike in oil
                                                                                                                  prices, and to ensure that war risks
                                                                                                                  and economic costs are felt globally.
                                                                                                                      Analysts have noted that the Ira-
                    DEEPIKA SARASWAT                                                                              nian strategy in the initial phase was
                                                                                                                  to target US radar and communica-
                 rom  Iran’s  perspective,  the                                                                   tion systems at US military bases in
                 current war is a continuation                                                                    the  Gulf  States,  which  functioned
            Fof the US–Israeli attacks on                                                                         as early-warning systems for Israel.
            the nuclear and missile programme                                                                     Since Israel was reassigned to the US
            in June 2025, which was followed by   objective being regime change—led   ership underscores a decentralised   Central  Command  in  January  2021,
            European countries’ triggering of the   to a revision of its reactive posture of   command  and  control,  or  what  the   the US prioritised developing an inte-
            ‘snapback’ of the UN sanctions, seen   calibrated  response,  which  was  de-  Iranian Foreign Minister described   grated air and missile defence system
            in Tehran as aimed at creating inter-  signed to avoid a full-blown war with   as ‘Mosaic Defence’. The idea is to   in the Middle East with Israeli par-
            nal unrest. President Donald Trump’s   the US.                      ensure not only flexibility and speed   ticipation. After degrading US radar
            threats to intervene in support of    The early US/Israeli strike kill-  of retaliation, but also survivability in   and  interception  capabilities,  Iran
            protesters created the worst security   ing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah   the face of a superior force.  can deploy its advanced long-range
            scenario for Iran: the overlapping of   Khamenei amounted to regime de-  Iran’s regionalisation of the con-  missiles against Israel more eco-
            internal unrest with external attack.  capitation, with the expectation that   flict in the initial phase involved tar-  nomically and with greater effective-
                Trump’s diplomacy was driven   it would create elite fracture or soci-  geting Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, Al   ness in a prolonged war of attrition.
            by a logic of strategic coercion or   etal mobilisation against the regime.  Dhafra airbase in the UAE, the US   In terms of the end goal in the
            compellence that an internally weak-  The strategy seems to have backfired.  Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain,  war,  Iran  is  fighting  a  ‘war  of  bal-
            ened  and  militarily  vulnerable  Iran   The widespread targeting  of   Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait, and   ance’,  where  it  is  not  in  a  hurry  to
            should make maximum concessions   security  apparatus,  especially  com-  Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan   seek a ceasefire. In other words, Iran
            to remove the threat of a US attack.  mand and regional bases of the Is-  and Israel, primarily as an asymmet-  is using controlled horizontal esca-
            Iran found US assurances or induce-  lamic  Revolutionary  Guard  Corps   ric strategic tool to create regional   lation as a tool to impose sufficient
            ments inadequate: only minimal    (IRGC) and police, judiciary, intelli-  pressure on the US.         costs on the US, its regional partners,
            sanctions relief upfront in exchange   gence and Basij volunteer force (the   In tactical terms, Iran has a wid-  and globally, aiming to alter their cal-
            for far-reaching concessions on the   primary instrument of managing in-  er set of escalation options targeting   culations about striking Iran again.
            nuclear file.                     ternal  unrest),  aimed  at  degrading   US bases in the Gulf States. It can   The  objective  remains  the  system’s
                Iran was confronted with a    the coercive arm of the Islamic Re-  deploy its bigger arsenal of more ac-  survival and the restoration of erod-
            long-dreaded   two-front   reality,  public to encourage political change   curate Short-Range Ballistic Missiles   ed deterrence.
            where the US was waging a ‘hybrid   from below. Trump defined the goal   (SRBMs) and cheaper and numerous
            warfare’,  using  economic  pressures   of war as ‘freedom’ for Iran. He ap-  kamikaze Shahed drones, more effec-  Dr. Deepika Saraswat is Associate
            and support for separatist forces to   pealed to the Iranian people to ‘take   tively against non-military and sym-  Fellow at the West Asia Center at
            foment internal unrest and desta-  over’ the government. Similarly, Ne-  bolic targets in the Gulf than Israel.   MP-IDSA
            bilise  the  regime,  while  using  the   tanyahu called on people to take to   The Gulf States find themselves
            threat of war to force Iran to give up   the streets.               entrapped in the US war against Iran.   Views expressed are of the author and
                                                                                                                   do not necessarily reflect the views of
            its nuclear and missile programmes.   The US/Israeli sustained air   Their interest remains to contain the   the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
            Tehran  rejected  strategic  surrender   campaign seeks to destroy military   war as they fear joining the US offen-  Government of India.
            and instead braced for a military con-  infrastructure:  air  defences,  under-  sive against Iran will invite greater
            frontation,  which  could  potentially   ground ballistic missile launchers   economic costs and  a prolonged in-  This article first appeared in the
            improve Iran’s bargaining position   and bases using B2 bombers, as well   stability. Tehran, for its part, is trying   Comments section of the website (www.
            vis-à-vis the US.                 as  the  navy.  Iran’s  immediate  retal-  to impose a new deterrence equation   idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
                Tehran’s existential framing of   iation  despite  decapitation  strikes   in which Gulf security cannot be in-  for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
            the  war—that  is,  the  US/Israel  war   against military and political lead-  sulated from the trajectory of escala-  Delhi, on March 23, 2026

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