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    EYE ON INDIA                                                           MARCH 13, 2026      |  The Indian Eye                    8

                               Raisina Dialogue Warning:

                        Why Alexander Stubb Says the

                                      World Order Is Fraying

                  At the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi, Finland’s president warned that weakening global

                                     institutions could open the door to a new era of power politics.

            OUR BUREAU                                                                                            recognition that the international sys-
                                                                                                                  tem is entering a period of structural
            New Delhi
                                                                                                                  change.
                  he  global  order  that  has  gov-                                                                  “Our discussions over the next
                  erned international relations                                                                   few days will be about new capabilities
            Tfor decades is under growing                                                                         — military, economic, energy, human
            strain, and the consequences of its                                                                   resources and above all technology,
            erosion could be severe. That was                                                                     particularly  artificial  intelligence,”
            the central message delivered by Al-                                                                  Jaishankar said.
            exander Stubb, President of Finland,                                                                      He added that policymakers must
            during his keynote address at the Rai-                                                                also reconsider old assumptions about
            sina Dialogue in New Delhi.                                                                           global politics. “It would also be about
                Speaking at India’s flagship con-                                                                 habits and assumptions — where they
            ference on geopolitics and geo-eco-                                                                   still apply and where we need to get
            nomics, Stubb offered a stark assess-                                                                 over them.”
            ment  of  a  world  where  conflicts  are                                                                 For India, which has increasingly
            multiplying and traditional institu-                                                                  positioned itself as a bridge between
            tions are losing authority. Without a                                                                 developed and developing worlds, the
            functioning international order, he   External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attends the Raisina Dialogue - Panel Discussion Ses-  conversation carries strategic signif-
            warned, global politics could slide to-                                                               icance. As the global order evolves,
            ward a system dominated by coercion   sion title: Author’s Corner along with the President of the Republic of Finland, Alexander Stubb,   New Delhi’s diplomatic choices could
            rather than cooperation.                         in New Delhi on Friday (PIB Photo Gallery/ANI Photo)  influence  whether  emerging  power
                “My  aim  today  is  to  try  to  find                                                            centres cooperate or compete.
            a pathway back to an international    The tendency to romanticise ear-  ed world order is coming to an end,”   In an unusually personal note,
            order  in  which institutions, norms,   lier eras of global stability, he argued,   he said, noting that demographic and   Stubb  reflected  on  how  people  con-
            and rules are respected,” Stubb said.   can create false assumptions about   economic trends are strengthening   front uncertainty in his home country.
            “Without a functioning world order,   how international politics functions.   the influence of countries in the Glob-  “When times get tough, a Finn
            power vacuums will be filled by raw   At the same time, portraying today’s   al South.                might go to the sauna and take an
            power, rogue behaviour, and predato-  crises as entirely unprecedented can   In this emerging environment,   ice bath,” he said. The ritual, he ex-
            ry hegemons.”                     lead to exaggerated reactions rather   major  developing  powers—especial-  plained,  offers  a  moment  of  clarity
                His remarks captured a broader   than thoughtful responses.     ly India—could play a decisive role   and reflection during difficult times.
            anxiety that increasingly shapes glob-  “The problem is that we nerds   in shaping the future international   The  metaphor  was  fitting  for  a
            al diplomacy: that the post-Cold War   of international relations quite often   system. Stubb suggested that such   conference devoted to reassessing
            system—based on multilateral rules   draw parallels with the past and the   countries will influence whether glob-  global trends. At a moment when geo-
            and institutions—is gradually giving   present,” Stubb said, warning that   al politics evolves toward cooperative   political tensions, technological dis-
            way to a more fragmented and com-  such comparisons sometimes pro-  multilateralism or competitive multi-  ruptions and economic shifts are re-
            petitive order.                   duce “convincing-sounding predic-  polarity.                        shaping the international landscape,
                Stubb’s analysis began with what   tions” that fail to capture the depth of   Stubb’s speech also set the tone   Stubb’s message was essentially a call
            he described as a fundamental prob-  emerging challenges.           for discussions at the three-day Rai-  for calm analysis and renewed com-
            lem in how policymakers interpret     In effect, the Finnish leader sug-  sina Dialogue, which brings together   mitment to international cooperation.
            global change. According to him, ana-  gested that the current geopolitical   policymakers, diplomats, scholars and   If global institutions fail to adapt,
            lysts and governments often misjudge   moment demands a new analytical   industry leaders from more than 100   he warned, the consequences could
            the present because they misunder-  framework rather than reliance on   countries. Organised by the Observer   be profound. The weakening of rules-
            stand both the past and the future.  historical analogies.          Research Foundation in partnership   based order, he suggested, would not
                “I think we human beings make     Another theme in Stubb’s speech   with India’s Ministry of External Af-  simply  produce  disorder—it  could
            three mistakes,” he said. “We over-ra-  was the shifting balance of power in   fairs, the conference has become one   usher in a new era where power alone
            tionalised the past… The second mis-  the international system. According   of the world’s prominent platforms   determines outcomes.
            take we make is we overdramatise the   to him, the era when Western coun-  for strategic debate.          And in such a world, the stability
            present, and when we make these two   tries dominated global politics is grad-  India’s External Affairs Minis-  that many countries have long relied
            mistakes, we underestimate the fu-  ually fading.                   ter  S.  Jaishankar  suggested  that  the   upon may prove far more fragile than
            ture.”                                “The era of a Western-dominat-  discussions  would  reflect  a  growing   expected.

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