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    OPINION                                                                MARCH 13, 2026      |  The Indian Eye 12

                                             What Are the

                 Many Challenges for the

                                      Afghan Taliban?

                      As indicated earlier, one of the most pivotal shifts in regional geopolitics has occurred

                in Taliban–Pakistan relations, reflected in border clashes, diplomatic demarches, cross-border
                                       airstrikes and mutual countercharges over security concerns

            SAMAN AYESHA KIDWAI

                 ince consolidating control over
                 Afghanistan in August 2021, the
            STaliban has avoided systemic
            collapse despite internal fault lines de-
            fined by governance and security chal-
            lenges, and mounting border tensions
            with erstwhile  allies. However,  the
            January 2026 Islamic State Khorasan
            Province (ISKP) attack on a Chinese
            establishment in Kabul’s Shahr-e-
            Naw district—widely regarded as one
            of the capital’s most secure areas—
            reaffirmed  the  endurance  of  ISKP,
            which has waged a protracted insur-
            gency against the Taliban since 2015.         Afghanistan, five years after the Taliban’s return to power, finds itself at a delicate crossroads (Courtesy: IDSA)
                Mounting tensions with Pakistan,
            meanwhile,  intensified  following  the   against ISKP, it confronts a persistent   through online recruitment … The   they also underscore that counter-ter-
            February 2026 attack in Bajaur, Khy-  challenge. Despite an overall reduc-  pressure campaign pushed ISIL-K to   rorism successes do not always trans-
            ber Pakhtunkhwa. A vehicle laden   tion in mass-casualty incidents and   search for alliances with other armed   late into ideological attrition. Here, it
            with explosives killed 12 individuals   targeted attacks, ISKP has remained   factions in different areas in Afghan-  is important to reflect on document-
            in a suicide attack. Subsequently, Pa-  a persistent threat, through strikes on   istan …  [ISIL-K] continued to de-  ed evidence concerning Afghanistan’s
            kistan’s  Foreign  Office  accused  the   diplomatic missions, commercial sites,  velop its network of cells to project a   evolving security landscape.
            Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) of   places of worship, and targeted assas-  threat regionally and beyond’.  As per the Global Terrorism In-
            carrying out this targeted strike, ar-  sinations  of  senior  Taliban  officials   The Shahr-e-Naw terror attack   dex (2025) report, “ISK’s ability to
            guing it “operates with impunity from   since 2021.                 resulted  in  approximately  27  casual-  operate and expand in Afghanistan
            Afghan soil”.                         ISKP’s operational adaptability   ties. The incident reaffirmed ISKP’s   and beyond remains an international
                At the same time, recent gover-  and  ideological resilience, therefore,  symbolic, operational and ideological   concern”. The report also pointed out
            nance  reforms  have  injected  a  new   continue to pose concerns, despite im-  endurance.  It  also  reflected  its  abili-  that Afghanistan’s exclusion from the
            strain in Afghan society through the   provements in Afghanistan’s security   ty to target one of the capital’s most   list of the five most affected countries
            implementation of a new penal code   landscape. ACLED’s January 2026   secure districts, at a time when the   by terrorism can be “attributed to the
            titled De Mahakumu Jazaai Osulna- Asia-Pacific  Overview,  for  instance,  Taliban are looking to attract foreign,  exclusion of Taliban activities from
            ma, or the Criminal Procedure for   notes a reduction in ISKP-claimed   including Chinese, investment. In   the Index, following the group’s as-
            Courts. This has laid the groundwork   attacks from 19 in 2024 to 5 in 2025.  February 2026, attacks targeting Chi-  cendance to government in 2021”.
            for the hardening of socio-economic   The United Nations  Security Coun-  nese citizens operating in the mining   These trends highlight the limits
            fault lines, potentially further frag-  cil’s Analytical Support and Sanctions   sector escalated. This has resulted in   of coercive counter-terrorism and
            menting the domestic landscape.   Monitoring Team Report (February   at least five fatalities in northern Af-  the inherent structural vulnerabili-
             ISKP and the Internal Security   2026), while acknowledging that the   ghanistan. This area is considered one   ties within Afghanistan’s counter-vi-
                                              ISIL-K  was  ‘under  significant  pres-
                                                                                                                  olent  extremism (CVE) framework.
                                                                                of ISKP’s key operational bases. No-
                       Challenge              sure, mostly from security operations   tably, China remains a major stake-  While domestic security concerns
                As the Taliban has transitioned   of the regional states and military   holder in Afghanistan’s mining sector.  and threats posed by ISKP continue
            from an insurgent movement employ-  actions by the Taliban’, notes that it   These attacks raise questions   to thwart the Taliban’s consolidation
            ing guerrilla tactics against allied forc-  still  ‘retained  significant  operational   about the Taliban’s monopoly over   of authority and undermine its mo-
            es to a governing authority spearhead-  and combat capability and the ability   violence and its credibility as a count-  nopoly over violence, external pres-
            ing a counter-terrorism campaign   to rapidly replace fighters, including   er-terror partner. At the same time,   Continued on next page... >>

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