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    OPINION                                                                MARCH 13, 2026      |  The Indian Eye 13

            sures along Afghanistan’s eastern and
            southern frontiers, bordering Paki-
            stan, remain an ongoing challenge.
                Recalibrating Ties with
                       Pakistan
                As indicated earlier, one of the
            most pivotal shifts in regional geopol-
            itics has occurred in Taliban–Pakistan
            relations, reflected in border clashes,
            diplomatic demarches, cross-border
            airstrikes and mutual countercharg-
            es over security concerns. At the root
            cause of this deterioration are escalat-
            ing attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban
            Pakistan (TTP), broadly regarded as
            an offshoot of the Afghan Taliban.
                The TTP seeks to replicate the
            Afghan  Taliban’s  model  of  Islamic
            jurisprudence within Pakistan. Its re-
            surgence has transformed a previous-
            ly long-standing strategic partnership
            into a bilateral relationship fuelled
            by mistrust, demarches and armed        The Taliban confronts a dual security challenge: navigating strained regional relations with a hostile neighbour while addressing
            clashes.  Pakistani  officials  have  re-                        the persistent threat posed by ISKP (Agency File Photo)
            peatedly accused the Afghan Taliban
            of harbouring the TTP militants and   The Taliban’s reluctance to deci-  ant to note that governance-related   bour while addressing the persistent
            granting the use of Afghan territory   sively curb TTP’s escalating militancy   grievances, arising from the penal   threat posed by ISKP. The evolving
            as a launchpad to target Pakistan—an   since returning to power, partly due   code, may further undermine or chal-  regional  developments,  ongoing  se-
            allegation vehemently denied by the
            Afghan leaders.                   to  ideological  affinity,  has  conse-  lenge the Taliban’s CVE strategy and   curity concerns, domestic reforms
                                              quently transformed its relationship
                                                                                broader consolidation of authority.
                                                                                                                  and subsequent erosion of internal
                Furthermore, the disputed status
                                                                                    Dissent and dissatisfaction among
            of the Durand Line has exacerbated   with Pakistan for the foreseeable fu-  women and other socio-economic   cohesion underscore the multifacet-
                                              ture. As the Taliban recalibrates its
                                                                                                                  ed challenges confronting the interim
            tensions. No Afghan government,   relationship with Pakistan, the fallout   groups excluded from clerical or elite   Afghan administration as it attempts
            including the Taliban administration,   of domestic governance reforms may   positions could harden identity and   to balance institutional reforms, cred-
            has formally recognised it as an in-  prove equally pivotal in shaping Af-  socio-economic  fault  lines  and  exac-  ibility as a counter-terror partner, and
            ternational border, contributing to   ghanistan’s security environment.  erbate security challenges. They could   the management of relations with for-
            contained border skirmishes on both                                 take up arms and join groups such as   mer allies such as Pakistan.
            sides. Tensions  have  also  frequently   Governance Reconfiguration  ISKP, regardless of ideological and   The Taliban’s primary challenge,
            culminated in cross-border airstrikes   In January 2026, guidelines for
            in bordering provinces such as Nan-  implementing a new penal code, De   objective dissonance, subvert the Tal-  therefore, lies in preserving its count-
                                                                                iban’s authority in other manners, or
                                                                                                                  er-terror gains amid widening do-
            garhar and Paktika, most recently on   Mahakumu Jazaai Osulnama, were   contribute to the brain drain, further   mestic and regional pressures, while
            21  February 2026,  reportedly  result-  issued by the Supreme Leader Hi-  shrinking the institutional capacity to   examining how governance reforms
            ing in dozens of civilian casualties.  batullah Akhundzada. Perceived   rebuild Afghanistan as a prosperous   will affect the durability of its security
                The recent strikes followed three   injustice arising due to the uneven
            major terror attacks within Pakistan:   application of the penal code risks fo-  country. Resultantly, taken together,  strategy. Institutional reforms, if im-
                                                                                this could undermine the regime’s ef-
                                                                                                                  plemented without a broad consensus,
            the November 2025 suicide bombing   menting societal grievances that may   forts to stabilise Afghanistan from the   might foment grievances that violent
            outside the Islamabad  district court   bolster radicalisation and recruitment   bottom up if this approach is pursued   non-state actors could exploit.
            complex that caused about 39 ca-  by non-state actors, including ISKP.   over the foreseeable future.
            sualties; the February 2026 suicide   Exclusionary politics risk deepening
            attack in Bajaur district (Khyber Pa-  internal fault lines, undermining so-  Conclusion                Saman Ayesha Kidwai is a Research
            khtunkhwa), which killed at least 11   cietal cohesion, and contributing to   Afghanistan,  five  years  after  the   Analyst (Counter Terrorism Centre) at
            soldiers; and the February 2026 sui-  instability and emigration.   Taliban’s return to power, finds itself   MP-IDSA. She joined the institute in Au-
            cide bombing at a Shia Mosque in Is-  Analysts argue that its provisions   at a delicate crossroads. Despite pre-  gust 2021. She holds a Master’s degree
            lamabad during Friday prayers, which   may reduce protections for survivors of   venting complete collapse and sys-  in Conflict Analysis and Peacebuilding
            killed over 30 individuals.       domestic violence, reigniting fierce de-  temic fragmentation of authority, the   from the Nelson Mandela Centre for
                While Islamabad framed the    bates over women’s rights and their role   regime faces the prospect of govern-  Peace and Conflict Resolution, Jamia
            airstrikes as part of a broader count-  in the public sphere since August 2021.  ing a country under sustained duress,   Millia Islamia
            er-terror operation targeting militant   They have also raised concerns regard-  as its governance reforms risk weak-  Views expressed are of the author and
            hideouts in Afghanistan, the Afghan   ing the selective application of penal-  ening the state from within. Its pursuit   do not necessarily reflect the views of
            Taliban decried the strikes and vowed   ties for violations of established laws.  of domestic stability and authority   the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
            an “appropriate response”. Whether    For example, information sug-  consolidation appears to rest on two     Government of India.
            such diplomatic condemnation will   gests that elites and religious schol-  central pillars—coercive counter-ter-
            translate into decisive counter-mea-  ars  may  merely  be  fined  for  proven   rorism  and  societal  reconfiguration   This article first appeared in the
            sures remains doubtful, given the lack   misconduct. In contrast, other social   shaped by ideological rigidity.  Comments section of the website (www.
            of notable precedents beyond con-  groups, such as middle-class families,   The Taliban confronts a dual se-  idsa.in) of Manohar Parrikar Institute
            tained border skirmishes over the past   could face harsher punishments, in-  curity challenge: navigating strained   for Defense Studies and Analyses, New
            five years.                       cluding imprisonment. It is import-  regional relations with a hostile neigh-  Delhi, on March 2, 2026

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