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    Op-Ed                                                                  MARCH 13, 2026      |  The Indian Eye 10

                    Between Tehran and Tel Aviv:

                 Why India Is Choosing Caution

                                        Over Camp Politics

               Perhaps the most immediate concern driving India’s caution is the large Indian diaspora in the Gulf region.
                             Millions of Indian citizens live and work across West Asia, contributing significantly

                                             to both local economies and to India through remittances

            ASHISH K SINGH                                                                                        fast-growing economy, sustained high
                                                                                                                  energy  costs  translate  into  inflation-
               ndia’s  response  to  the  unfolding                                                               ary pressures, fiscal strain, and slower
               conflict  involving  Iran  reflects  a                                                             growth. The ripple effects would be
            Ilong-standing strategic instinct:                                                                    felt across industries and households.
            caution over impulse, balance over                                                                        It is therefore in India’s interest
            alignment, and pragmatism over rhet-                                                                  that the conflict concludes quickly. A
            oric. As tensions escalate in a region                                                                short, contained confrontation, while
            vital to India’s economic and securi-                                                                 undesirable, is far less damaging than
            ty interests, New Delhi has chosen                                                                    a drawn-out war of attrition. The lon-
            a measured path. This approach is                                                                     ger hostilities persist, the greater the
            neither indecisive nor evasive. It is a                                                               risk of spillover — whether through
            deliberate effort to safeguard nation-                                                                attacks on maritime trade routes or
            al interests in a complex geopolitical                                                                wider regional instability. India’s pub-
            environment.                                                                                          lic calls for restraint and dialogue re-
                At the heart of India’s posture is                                                                flect this economic calculus as much
            a clear objective: it does not want to                                                                as diplomatic principle.
            be seen as aligned with one side or                                                                       Critics may view India’s caution
            another. India’s foreign policy tradi-  A widening war that draws in more regional actors could endanger civilian populations and   as excessive or morally ambiguous.
            tion has emphasized strategic auton-                                                                  But foreign policy is rarely a matter of
            omy — the ability to engage multiple                     disrupt livelihoods (Agency)                 simple binaries. In a conflict where al-
            powers without becoming entangled                                                                     liances overlap and interests intersect,
            in their rivalries. In a conflict involv-  live and work across West Asia, con-  and Israel have developed robust co-  overt partisanship can close doors that
            ing Iran and its adversaries, any overt   tributing  significantly  to  both  local  operation in defense, agriculture, and   may later need to be opened. India’s
            tilt could carry costs. Public alignment   economies and to India through re-  technology. Israel has emerged as a   approach suggests a recognition that
            with one camp would risk alienating   mittances. Their safety and stability  key defense supplier to India, and se-  today’s adversary may be tomorrow’s
            the other, narrowing India’s diplo-  are paramount. A widening war that  curity collaboration between the two   negotiating partner, and that preserv-
            matic space at a time when flexibility   draws in more regional actors could  countries has deepened. Any regional   ing communication channels is often
            is essential.                     endanger civilian populations and  conflict involving Israel therefore has   more valuable than making emphatic
                India’s interest lies in maintaining   disrupt livelihoods. Evacuation oper-  direct implications for India’s strate-  declarations.
            balance. It has cultivated relationships   ations, while possible, are costly and  gic partnerships.      Ultimately, India is engaged in a
            across the Middle East over decades,   fraught with logistical challenges. Pre-  Yet India’s engagement with Is-  difficult balancing act. It must protect
            strengthening ties with countries that   venting such a scenario is far prefera-  rael has not come at the expense of   its citizens abroad, secure its energy
            often  find  themselves  on  opposing   ble to responding to one.   relations with Iran. Tehran has been   lifelines, maintain defense partner-
            sides of regional disputes. This careful   India’s diaspora considerations  important to India’s regional connec-  ships, and uphold its broader diplo-
            engagement has paid dividends — in   are not abstract. Past conflicts in the  tivity ambitions and energy diversifi-  matic  credibility.  It  must  do  so  in  a
            trade, energy cooperation, counter-  region have required large-scale evac-  cation efforts. India’s broader Middle   volatile  region where escalation can
            terrorism coordination, and political   uations of Indian nationals under diffi-  East policy has sought to treat these   be swift and unpredictable. The chal-
            goodwill. Preserving this network of   cult conditions. The memory of those  relationships as parallel rather than   lenge is not merely to avoid missteps
            relationships requires restraint in mo-  operations underscores why New Del-  mutually exclusive. The current crisis   but to actively manage competing pri-
            ments of crisis. A sharp statement or   hi prioritizes de-escalation and avoids  tests that balancing strategy.  orities without being drawn into the
            symbolic gesture may win applause   language that could inflame tensions.   Energy security is another critical   conflict’s gravitational pull.
            in some quarters, but it could under-  For policymakers, every diplomatic  variable. India remains heavily de-  In choosing caution, India is not
            mine years of patient diplomacy.  calculation is filtered through the lens  pendent on imported oil and gas. A   avoiding responsibility. Rather, it
                Perhaps the most immediate    of protecting citizens abroad.    prolonged war that disrupts shipping   is asserting a form of responsibility
            concern driving India’s caution is    At the same time, India’s ties with   routes, damages energy infrastruc-  rooted in its own national interests.
            the large Indian diaspora in the Gulf   Israel add another layer of complexi-  ture, or triggers sanctions-related vol-  In a turbulent geopolitical moment,
            region.  Millions  of  Indian  citizens   ty. Over the past three decades, India  atility could send prices soaring. For a   balance is not passivity. It is strategy.

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